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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: BGC; CHRS; CYBS; GME; LPSN; LUK; NVDA; PLCE; RACK; RMBS; STLD
Thursday night play results:
CKFR: Still working laterally over the 50 day EMA on very low volume.
HOM: Took a day off Friday with volume fading back to average.
RHAT: Fell back to the 10 day EMA as it continues to work on the handle
ZGEN: Fell back to the 18 day EMA on continued lows
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/25/2006
ARG (Airgas--$39.58; +0.86; optionable): Wholesale industrial equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/arg.html
STATUS: Ascending base. ARG is performing very nicely, breaking higher Friday and toward a new all-time high as it clears a 9 week base that formed at the 18 day EMA. Excellent 3:0 accumulation in the base shows all buying as the stock consolidates its prior run and sets the stage for the next move. Looks as if that is just around the corner following the strong Friday session. Strong money flow is leading the way. Relative strength is ready to make the breakout as well. To fundamentals to go along with the strong pattern.
Volume: 608K Avg Volume: 531.762K
BUY POINT: $39.88 Volume=798K Target=$47.85 Stop=$38
POSITION: ARG GH - July $40c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/arg.html
Play Date: 03/25/2006
GYMB (Gymboree--$25.78; +0.20; optionable): Children's clothing, furniture
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gymb.html
After Hours: $25.83
STATUS: Flying plateau. GYMB is working laterally the past week in a very narrow, tight range after climbing to a 7 year high two weeks back. Excellent test, refusing to give up the gains to this point. This consolidation range formed after the breakout from a nice 10 week pattern that formed using the 50 day EMA (23.88) as support. A long time coming, but GYMB finally came to life in the fall of 2005. Excellent 5 to 1 accumulation in the base shows a ton of buying. Volume is very low as it moves laterally, and now the 10 day EMA (25.37) has caught up to it. Solid fundamentals to go along with the pattern.
Volume: 373.791K Avg Volume: 667.628K
BUY POINT: $26.28 Volume=1M Target=$31.55 Stop=$24.78
POSITION: GQU HE - Aug. $25c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/gymb.html
New buy points on current positions:
Play Date: 03/25/2006
BLKB (Blackbaud--$19.94; +0.44; no options): Donation tracking software, etc. for nonprofit organizations
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/blkb.html
STATUS: Breakout test. BLKB broke higher in February and ran up to 20 along the 10 day EMA (19.64). Nice run and it used last week's overall market test to test its own move, coming back to the 18 day EMA (19.42) on mostly lower volume. It held, showed a doji on higher volume Thursday, and then bounced higher Friday on rising, average volume. This leader looks ready to make the next step after this test of the breakout. That first breakout test is one of our favorite entry points as it shows the buyers still want the stock after that initial breakout move.
Volume: 528.324K Avg Volume: 472.605K
BUY POINT: $20.15 Volume=700K Target=$24 Stop=$18.32
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/blkb.html
Play Date: 03/25/2006
DRIV (Digital River--$42.5; -0.02; optionable): Internet services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/driv.html
STATUS: Test breakout. We moved into DRIV when it broke higher in early March, breaking out of a much larger 16 month double bottom with handle base. It rallied up the 10 day EMA (41.84) and then gapped higher last Tuesday on very strong volume after upping its guidance. Then it faded, testing the move, filling the gap and holding the 10 day EMA as it came back. Strong money flow is leading and relative strength broke out. Looking for additional positions as DRIV rebound on rising trade.
Volume: 744.795K Avg Volume: 1.129M
BUY POINT: $43.25 Volume=1.3M Target=$50 Stop=$41.72
POSITION: DQI IH - Sept. $40c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/driv.html
Current plays ready to move:
Play Date: 03/22/2006
FNSR (Finisar--$4.95; +0.09; optionable): Networking & communications hardware
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fnsr.html
After Hours: $4.94
STATUS: Breakout test. Still working laterally just below 5. Last week it came off the 10 day EMA (4.74) on strong volume Wednesday after using that level as support. Stalled to end the week but still looks ready to continue the breakout move. To recap: Broke out from a 14 month cup with handle base to start the month, gapping higher on strong volume. It is making its second test of the breakout, coming back to the 10 day EMA on lower volume and then starting the next bounce higher on very strong, above average volume. Strong money flow is leading higher. Relative strength is breaking higher as well, a very good indication for the further run higher.
Volume: 13.354M Avg Volume: 12.459M
BUY POINT: $5.09 Volume=18M Target=$6.75 Stop=$4.73
POSITION: FQP GA - July $5c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/fnsr.html
Play Date: 03/22/2006
FSL (Freescale Semiconductor--$27.61; +0.03; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fsl.html
After Hours: $28.11
STATUS: Flat base. Nice finish to the week. After a strong move Wednesday FSL eased back on much lower, below average volume Thursday and Friday, showing a big doji with tail Friday that tapped the 10 day EMA (27.12) on the low and rebounded to close flat. Looks to be making a higher low at this point and that often precedes the breakout from a range such as this one, a 4.5 month move bouncing up and down between 25 and 28. That move will take it to a new all-time high. Strong money flow is leading higher. Excellent 6:2 accumulation has set the stage.
Volume: 806.4K Avg Volume: 2.288M
BUY POINT: $28.45 Volume=2.5M Target=$34 Stop=$26.55
POSITION: FSL IE - Sept. $25c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/fsl.html
Play Date: 03/22/2006
PLMD (Polymedica--$42.92; +0.07; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/plmd.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working laterally in a very narrow range on very low, below average volume, forming the handle to its base. The 10 day EMA (42.36) is rising to meet it, and we anticipate PLMD to make its move this week as the 10 day EMA comes up to meet price. To recap: PLMD broke out from a 15 month base to end January, posting a nice surge to 43.50. It then fell into the current 6 week pattern, coming down to test the 50 day EMA (40.03) on the low and then rebounding to form the right side of the base. Excellent 3 to 0 accumulation in the pattern (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume) shows all buying. Strong money flow is leading higher. Looking strong and ready to make the breakout to a new all-time high.
Volume: 140.504K Avg Volume: 229.916K
BUY POINT: $43.62 Volume=344K Target=$51.95 Stop=$41.45
POSITION: PM IH - Sept. $40c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/plmd.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, BRCM, CELG, COH, FFIV, GME, MRVL, NVDA, PSYS, UNH
BRCM: Trying to hold the 50 day EMA (43.21) after slipping lower Friday on rising though still below average volume. Struggling ever since that big gap higher in late January on strong earnings and guidance.
CELG: Continues up the 10 day EMA as it did the last time it made us good money.
FFIV: Nowhere Friday, but it finished the week in decent shape after drawing a downgrade early in the week.
MRVL: Continues moving higher, rallying to the 18 day EMA Friday but on lower, below average volume. Strong volume to start the rebound move but it has to start breaking resistance. The key will be 60 where there is prior price resistance (December peak) and the 50 day EMA (60.12).
NVDA: A solid week for NVDA if a bit volatile. Good volume as it continued its trend up the 18 day EMA.
PSYS: May be back in the recovery mode, jumping Friday. Volume was not there, but it needed to get up off the 50 day.
UNH: Wallowing still, falling back below the 200 day SMA (56.39) Friday on below average volume. Trying to hold the line and put in a bottom to its attempted base.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock recommendation
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