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us stock market, stock watch
Begin Part 4 of 4
REMAINING PLAYS:
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PRE-ANNOUNCEMENTS REMAINING PLAYS:
Watchlist:
GTK (42.77; -0.64): Forecast to announce a split on 12-13-01 in conjunction with earnings. At this time the company has not confirmed a time for the release. Losing it a bit here, dropping hard Wednesday and taking out its 18 day MVA Friday (43.12). Next support is down at 40. Stopped out, so we will look to where it finds support.
NDN ($33.92; +0.71): Researching a date. Has fought back and is holding its lateral pattern over the 50 day MVA (33.40). We will see if it can hold and show us something of a pattern.
SONC ($33.47; +0.07): We are working on a date. Trying to recover, but very erratic.On a drop support is at the 18 day MVA (32.46) and the 50 day MVA (31.82).
TRDO ($27.23; -0.53): Computer Software. Forecast to announce a split in the beginning of December in conjunction with a board meeting. The company will not confirm the board meeting but based upon our research the board meeting should take place at this time. Holding now over the 50 day (27.13), trying to overcome the recent downtrend. The aggressive can still look at a move over 29 on volume in the 500,000 range, with February $25 calls to buy (UNC BE - low open interest).
XL ($94.75; +0.79): Researching a date. Creeping up along the short-term MVA's (18 day 92.28), but volume has been very low. The break to a new high is a move over 96.50 on above average (2 million) volume, with stock and/or January $90 calls to buy (XL AR).
EASI ($41.65; +0.99): Forecast to announce a split on 12-10-01 in conjunction with earnings. At this time, the company cannot confirm this date. Creeping up on low volume (continuing on pace Friday with 44,800; average 467,000), and is still a put on a drop back through 39.50 on increased volume, with January $45 puts to buy (UFE MI - no open interest).
THQI ($52.01; +0.01): We are working on a date. Holding over the 50 day MVA (51.61), showing a doji Friday. We could still get a bounce from here, with the aggressive play on a move over the 10 day MVA (53.31) on above average volume, with stock and/or January $50 calls to buy (QHI CJ).
Plays:
EDS (Electronic Data System--$69.98; +0.90; optionable): We are researching a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eds.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 3-9-92 at a stock price of $60. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-22-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: EDS is trending up along its 10 day MVA (68.47). It broke out over its 2001 highs (66-67) in early November, and has since tested the 10 day a couple of times as it moves up. Friday it continued a move up from the 10 day, but the move is on low volume (Friday on course to be weak at 687,400; average 3.21 million). Since breaking from a small cup in mid October, EDS has made three runs up from the 10 day. Stocks tend to make 4 to 5 such runs, but with the low volume move, EDS could need to test back toward the range of the 18 day MVA (67.19). With current positions we will continue to cautiously ride, but a breach of the 10 day could spell an exit.
BUY POINT: After a test of the 67-68 range with a bit of consolidation, a move back over 69 on above average volume. Could take a little while. Stop: 65.
POSITION: Stock and/or January $65 calls to buy (EDS AM).
FDC (First Data--$72.42; +1.72; optionable): Working on a forecast date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fdc.html
BACKGROUND: Last split was a 2:1 on 11-18-96 at a stock price of $80. The annual shareholder meeting was on 1-11-01 at which time authorized shares were increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Pulled back from its recent breakout (from a cup pattern), but caught the 18 day MVA (71.07). Friday the stock bounced up off of a 'hammer' doji at the 18 day, with predictably light holiday volume (half-day at 462,900; average 2 million). It has made three bounces up from the 18 day, and we are careful with the fourth one, and given the holiday this move is difficult to evaluate. It could still test back toward the 50 day (68.09), as FDC has made its recent move up in the right side of the cup on low volume, and we like to see accumulation in the right side of the pattern. If it does move back, we will look at selling some calls on existing positions to take a gain while it consolidates. We were targeting 82 on a strong breakout, and will still watch from here for a strong move.
BUY POINT: Breakout is 74.23 on volume of 3 million. Stop: 70. On current positions we will look at selling some December $70 calls if it falls below the 18 day MVA, buying them back at support at 68 (the 50 day MVA).
POSITION: Stock and/or February $70 calls to buy (FDC BN).
MI (Marshall & Ilsley--$61.48; +0.23; optionable): Banking: Regional. We are researching a forecast date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mi.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that MI has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-24-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: A bit perilous here. MI made another bounce from its 18 day MVA (60.12) this week, but is again having trouble as it reaches its breakout high (from a "flying W" with handle). Volume was solid on the bounce Tuesday, and the holiday volume was very low as the stock tried to continue. MI closed Friday at its prior highs, and this wedging action right after the breakout is not the greatest. We will need to be ready for a potential strong drop, but it could still make a move from here or after another test of the 18 day, so we will keep watching. If we can get the breakout, we are still targeting 70.
BUY POINT: From here or after a low volume test of the 18 day, 61.75 on volume of 300,000 or better (average 233,000; Friday 62,200). Stop: 58 (50 day MVA at 58.37).
POSITION: Stock and/or December $55 calls to buy (MI LK).
FORMER SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS: As the market finds itself, we are focusing on some of the stocks that have shown a propensity to split and which are looking solid.
Watchlist:
LUV (18.65; +0.06): LUV is holding on its test of the 200 day MVA (17.87), dipping back on below average volume. Pretty solid, and we will get another good entry point on a solid move up. This has returned 60% from the low on the day the markets reopened. On a move over 19, positions with stock.
SCHL ($44.97; +0.27): Not doing much now, having fallen from its handle pattern. Dropping.
PRE-SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:
Watchlist:
AMHC ($43.05; +0.69): Splits 3:2 effective 11-26-01. Splits Monday but still looks good in the pennant. The breakout is on a move over 44.12 on above average volume, with stock.
MIKE ($59.32; +0.13): Splits 2:1 effective November 27. One day before the split, and MIKE has shown three consecutive dojis after its good move Monday. We could still get one more move, but it has already come a long way. The very aggressive can play a quick move over 60 on increased volume, keeping stops close to protect profits. December $55 calls to buy (IKQ LK).
EPIQ ($33.50; +1.80): Splits 3:2 effective December 3. Made a huge drop to the 50 day (30.31), but managed a decent bounce Friday. We still have some time before the split, so we will see if EPIQ can hold support for a pre-split move.
PBG ($45.30; +0.07): Splits 2:1 effective 12-5-01. Still drifting down on falling volume. PBG has now fallen out of a pennant/descending wedge and is sitting on the long-term trendline (from September 2000). A bit of time left, so we will see if it can hold the trendline and make a run.
ITG ($61.37; +0.31): Splits 3:2 effective 12-10-01. Still holding over the 50 day (60.66) after a strong drop. If it can hold we will look for a bounce and run as we go toward the split. The aggressive can play a bounce back up over 62 on above average volume with stock and/or January $60 calls to buy (ITG AL). The recent high 66.15.
New Pre-Split Play:
CACI (Caci International--$67.80; +2.53; optionable): Technical services. Splits 2:1 effective 12-7-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/caci.html
STATUS: CACI broke out in September, and after testing that breakout (and the 50 day, currently at 59.34), the stock took off again but has moved into a lateral wedging pattern. After testing back toward 60 (October high) Monday the stock has made a strong move up, Friday pushing up again toward the high in the pattern (70.98). Friday's move did pull back from a high of 69.40, which can be a topping sign, so we could get a pullback, but we will watch for it to hold the 18 day MVA (64.99) for another run. Target on a move that takes out the high: 78.
PLAY: After a test of the 18 day, a move back over 66, with stock and/or January $60 calls to buy (KQL AL - low open interest).
Continuing Plays:
CBH (Commerce Bancorp--$75.30; +0.87; optionable): Splits 2:1 effective 12-19-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbh.html
STATUS: Trying to break out of the handle. After dipping below the 18 day MVA (74) Tuesday, CBH has mounted a move back up on the momentum of the split announcement. Volume was typically low (half-session volume of 54,400 (on track to be slightly higher than Wednesday, average 157,200) as it closed near the handle high. This handle comes after four moves up along the 18 day, and after the fourth stage, we often see a longer rest with a deeper pullback. Consequently, although we may see a playable breakout from here, we will carefully protect positions. We need to be prepared for a test back, perhaps to the 50 day MVA (72.42). Target: 85.
BUY POINT: From here: 75.86 on volume of 230,000. Stop: 73.
POSITION: Stock and/or January (very low open interest currently) or March $70 calls to buy (CBH AN or CBH CN).
CHBS (Christopher & Banks--$38.12; +0.23; optionable): Retail apparel. Splits 3:2 effective 12-13-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chbs.html
STATUS: CHBS recently broke from its ranging handle to a cup (dating back to May, high of 47.50), and after testing the break has now pushed up toward the recent high on volume that is falling (decreasing steadily this week, with Friday half session volume of 61,200 on track to be lower than Wednesday, average is 422,300). We are looking for the breakout move, but with this weaker push up, we wouldn't be surprised to see a dip back to the 10 day MVA (36.82) first. CHBS is turning into a consistent splitter, with four in two years. The recent high is 39.35, and the target on a move over that high is 48.
PLAY: From here, a move to 39.47 on above average volume. Stop: 37. After pulling back to the 10 day, a move over 38 on above average volume. Stop: 35. Stock and/or January $35 calls to buy (URH AG). Stop: 35.
CONTINUING CANDIDATES REMAINING PLAYS: When splits are not announced, we will keep the best split prospects on the report rather than continue to carry all of them in case there is a an unexpected announcement. We will continue to monitor the stocks that are trimmed and add them again when we ascertain a revised split announcement date.
Watchlist:
ACS ($96.20; +0.80): Still consolidating over 95 as volume falls. We are still riding current positions, but ACS seems to be hitting resistance at 96.20 at its upper channel, and still not interested in riding it back down to the up trendline at 87.50 (support at 10 day & 18 day at 94.23 and 93.05). Still targeting 100-105 to the upside.
BJ ($45.39; +0.29): Has pulled into a pennant after the big drop. For put positions taken on the recent drop we are wary of a stronger push up (10 day is at 41.44), but we are still targeting 42 on the drop.
FLIR ($40.50; +0.21): Has recovered from the recent low of 33.75 and is now holding over the 50 day (40.37) as volume fades away. It could go either way here, but our bias remains to the downside. Still looking for a drop through 38.60 on increased volume (average 354,500) with January $50 puts to buy (FFQ MJ).
PEP ($49.40; +0.07): The test continues. PEP pulled back through the 18 day, but may be trying to move back up as volume remains below average and steady. A weak move preceded this drop, so we will see if it can hold support here or if it needs to pullback further to the 50 day at 48.52. The breakout is 50.58 on volume of 8.2 million with stock and/or January $45 calls to buy (PEP AI).
RMD ($57.50; +0.73): Pulled up over the short-term MVA's (and hit out buy point), but Friday's half-session volume was weak at 45,900 (on track to be lower than Wednesday, average 247,900). We continue to watch to see if we get a stronger move up, or if RMD falls back again. We will consider positions on a move over 58 on increased, above average volume, with stock and/or January $55 calls to buy (RMD AK).
SLM ($86.84; +0.65): Still holding over the 10 day (86.33) after the weak move up. Still watching to see if we get a strong move back the recent high of 87.85, but we may see a test of the 18 day at 85.66 (long-term trendline just below that), or the 50 day at 83.69, as it did in September and October.
SUI ($37.00; +0.15): Continued down through the 50 day (37.12) on stronger volume and closed Friday with a weak push up toward that resistance. We need to see a solid push back before we can look to the upside. It may take some time, so nothing for now.
TECD ($37.74; -0.26): With Wednesday's big gap down and strong selling, we are dropping for now.
Plays:
JEC (Jacobs Engineering--$68.50; -0.50; optionable): Construction. http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jec.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that JEC has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 2-13-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
STATUS: Consolidating over support. JEC is holding nicely over the 50 day MVA (67.43) as volume continues to fall (Friday's half day volume of 67,100 is on track to be slightly lower than Wednesday, average 209,100). This rest is looking good after the abrupt fall, and we want to see support continue to hold as we wait for a stronger market to give JEC a boost up and over the 10 day MVA (70.10). The recent high is 75.70 (made on a break from a ragged handle to a cup).
BUY POINT: After continuing to hold the 50 day, a move over the 10 day on above average volume. Stop: 67.
POSITIONS: Stock or January $65 calls to buy (JEC AM).
THC (Tenent Healthcare; $60.34; +0.28; optionable): Health Services - Hospitals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/thc.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a stock split in September 1991 in the $45 range. No additional shares will be authorized at the annual shareholder meeting, but the company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Taking a breather. After giving us a nice move earlier this week, THC is taking a rest over 60 on sharply lower volume (Friday half-day volume of 471,200 on track to be just slightly lower than Wednesday, average is 2.19 million). Holding up nicely, and while we may still see a pullback, and will watch for THC to catch itself at 59 (10 day MVA at 70.10) and watch for a move up from there. The recent high of 62.78 is the first level of resistance.
BUY POINT: Aggressive momentum: After continuing to hold here, a move over 60.70 on increased volume near or over the average. Stop: 57.
POSITION: Stock and/or February $55 calls to buy (THC BK).
POST SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:
Watchlist:
ATK ($82.45; +0.91): Split 3:2 on 9-10-01. Little change Friday as ATK holds the 50 day (81.80). Still looking for a move down through 80 on increased volume near the average (354,700) to trigger a put play with January $90 puts to buy (ATK MQ).
WFMI ($42.99; +0.73): Split 2:1 on June 5. After giving us a strong and sustained breakout, WFMI is taking a breather and showing something of a lower-volume consolidation over 42. Still riding current positions to the target of 45, carefully protecting profits.
KRON ($39.92; +0.72): Split 3:2 on 11.16. Fell out of its consolidation after not having made the upside move. It bounced from the 50 day MVA, but never made the move. Dropping.
Plays:
BRO (Brown & Brown --$30.40; +0.50; no options): Insurance. Split 2:1 on 11-23-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bro.html
STATUS: Good move Friday! Despite the shorter session and the split, BRO closed the day with a nice post-split gain that took it out of its ascending wedge pattern. Volume was strong at 138,000, and on track to be higher than Wednesday's above average volume (average 149,700). A nice move and we want to see it continue, but post-split we are always careful to protect positions. Target: 35.
PLAY: From here the stock is still a buy up to 31.69 on continued strong, above average volume, with stock (no options).
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock watch
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