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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Pre-Split Plays: The energy stocks are setting up well once more ahead of the summer drive.
New Pre-Split Play:
Play Date: 04/08/2006
TLM (Talisman Energy--$56.19; -0.66; optionable): Independent oil and gas. Splits 31 on 5-31-06.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tlm.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Forming a handle rather far down in its 11 week base, but after the nice volume on the Thursday gap higher we are looking to start the play on the next move higher that shows some good trade. Friday TLM faded back some but on much lower, below average volume. Nice test of the good Monday through Thursday move; may take another session or two to get it full set up the rebound but that high volume shows us the buying interest is there.
Volume: 814.8K Avg Volume: 1.25M
BUY POINT: $57.48 Volume=1.5M Target=$67.95 Stop=$55.65
POSITION: TLM GK - July $55c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tlm.html
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 04/08/2006
BHE (Benchmark Electronics--$25.55; 0.00; optionable): Printed circuit boards
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bhe.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Taking another look at BHE after its Tuesday split that saw some rather wild action. It settled down and eased back up to the top of the recent three week range, tapping at 26 on the Friday high. Nice leader that has tested the mid-March breakout from its 8 week base that formed using the 50 day EMA (24.37) as support. Stronger volume Friday and looking for more of that kind of trade as it moves through the buy point. Nice 3 to 1 accumulation in the base set up the move.
Volume: 556.1K Avg Volume: 633.936K
BUY POINT: $26.26 Volume=800K Target=$31.55 Stop=$25.00
POSITION: BHE JE - Oct. $25c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bhe.html
New buy point on current Leader Play positions:
Play Date: 04/08/2006
AH (Armor Holdings--$60.94; -0.43; optionable): Vehicle armor and security products for law enforcement, military, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ah.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Nice solid move the first three sessions of April, breaking out of the short 5 week flat base formed using the 18 day EMA (58.94) as support. Thursday and Friday AH came back to test the move, tapping at the 10 day EMA (59.86) on the intraday low and rebounding to recoup some losses. May come back to test the 10 day EMA a bit more, but already a nice test and ready to move again so we want to be ready to enter as it makes its next bounce higher. Strong 3 to 0 accumulation in the base. A market leader that looks ready to lead some more.
Volume: 365.7K Avg Volume: 590.232K
BUY POINT: $61.45 Volume=625K Target=$72.95 Stop=$59.55
POSITION: AH HL - Aug. $60c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/csah.html
Play Date: 04/08/2006
SLAB (Silicon Labs--$57.59; -1.67; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slab.html
After Hours: $57.65
STATUS: Test breakout. Nice testing in process setting us up a new entry point. SLAB is in the hunt to breakout over its early 2004 high at 60, rallying to that level last week as it broke out from its 8 week ascending base. It used the 50 day EMA (49.72) as support, an indication of institutional support for the stock. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation shows buying as it set up, and strong volume on the breakout shows them jumping in as SLAB moved higher. After a strong move to start last week it peaked at the old resistance and then faded on low volume Thursday and Friday, Friday tapping at the 10 day EMA (55.87) on the intraday low and then rebounding to recoup some losses. May come back to test the 10 day EMA fully, but if it rebounds from the Friday close we will be ready to enter the play. Strong leader giving us a nice test of the breakout to enter.
Volume: 867.706K Avg Volume: 1.477M
BUY POINT: Test 55.87, then $56.55 on the rebound. From Friday close: $58.25 Volume=1.7M Target=$67.85 Stop=$54.94
POSITION: QFJ GK - July $55c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/s/slab.html
Play Date: 03/27/2006
RMD (Resmed--$43.18; -1.16; optionable): Medical appliances and equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rmd.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Not giving up on more positions in this play. Gapped higher Wednesday on solid volume and then gave it all back and more Thursday, fading to test the 18 day EMA (42.92) on lower, below average volume. Disappointing but hardly a major issue given the low volume. Looking for a rebound on strong volume once more. To recap: RMD broke out from a 17 week base last week, surging on huge trade. It peaked out near 45 and then came back to test the 10 day EMA and on down to the 18 day EMA. After this test it is ready for the rebound that takes it to a new all-time high. Outstanding 8 to 2 accumulation in the base (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows heavy buying along with the strong buying.
Volume: 385.8K Avg Volume: 501.729K
BUY POINT: New positions: 44.25 (orig. $43.95) Volume=600K Target=$50.95 Stop=$42.45
POSITION: RMD GH - July $40c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rmd.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
ANSS: Waiting for the test to complete and then we will look for new positions. Looking for an announcement with its shareholder meeting that will occur in late May or early June (date not yet set).
ARO: Researching date. Announced earnings 3-9-06.
ASEI: Tentatively set for 5-12-06 (Just announced earnings on 2-8-06). Continuing the move lower after we exited and looks to be heading to the 50 day EMA where we can look at it again to see if it is setting back up.
CX: Forecast 4-28-06
DAKT: Looking for a possible announcement with its June 1 board meeting.
DO: Forecast 4-26-06 after the close. That is the likely date though if not, the 5-22-06 shareholder meeting. Ready to move in once more after this test is complete.
EAT: Forecast 4-25-06 before the open. Not doing it, fading through the 50 day EMA Friday with a big thud lower.
FDX: No split announcement on 3-22-06. Still moving higher.
GG: Researching to pinpoint the date.
GILD: Forecast for 4-17-06 after the close. Back down to the 50 day EMA. Will see if it can set back up.
GPRO: Tentatively set for 5-3-06
GRMN: Forecast 5-6-06
IEX: Boosted its dividend 4-4-06. Earnings are 4-20-06; may see something there.
LLL: Forecast 4-25-06 with its shareholders meeting.
LMT: Forecast to announce with shareholder meeting on 4-27-06 at 10:30ET.
LRCX: Forecast 4-12-06 after the close.
MRO: Forecast 4-27-06
PLCE: Forecast 5-18-06 or with the shareholder meeting on 6-22-06.
PNRA: Forecast 4-12-06. Will see how it comes off this 50 day EMA test and if it gives us a new buy point.
POOL: Forecast 4-20-06 before the open.
RIG: Forecast 5-4-06 before the open
RNT: Forecast third week of April
SCHN: Forecast 4-10-06 before the open. Trying to hold the 10 day EMA ahead of the Monday announcement.
SU: Forecast 5-4-06
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 04/08/2006
DAKT (Daktronics--$38.79; -0.27; optionable): Scoreboards, etc. Forecast mid-May.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dakt.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 5-24-01 at $29.20. Before that a 2:1 split on 12-7-99 at $24.
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. DAKT has formed a short 4 week base as it consolidates the strong February to March move. Nice run and now moving laterally around the 18 day EMA (37.79) in this base sporting strong 4 to 1 accumulation. Volume has shown some good upside spiked on up days, 'get ready' spikes telling us the next break higher is coming. A solid leader with excellent fundamentals to go along with its pattern.
Volume: 168.427K Avg Volume: 130.246K
BUY POINT: $39.48 Volume=195K Target=$46.95 Stop=$37.69
POSITION: QKC GH - July $40c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dakt.html
Play Date: 04/08/2006
DO (Diamond Offshore--$91.22; -2.73; optionable): Offshore oil and gas drilling. Forecast 4-26-06 after the close.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split 7-10-97 at $82.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/do.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Took some gain Friday, but want to be ready when DO completes this test and resumes the move higher. DO rallied well in late March and earl April as it broke out from a 9 week base that formed using the 50 day EMA (82.28), making that initial surge on very strong volume. After that strong move it came back to test the 10 day EMA (90.00) on lower, below average volume, gapping down lower Friday. We anticipate it will head on down to the 10 day EMA and then rebound. We will be ready to enter if it moves higher from the Friday close or after the test of the 10 day. A very strong energy sector stock.
Volume: 2.247M Avg Volume: 2.789M
BUY POINT: From Friday close: $91.57. Test 90, then 90.75 on the rebound. Volume=3M Target=$104.95 Stop=$88.85
POSITION: DO IR - Sept. $90c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/do.html
Play Date: 04/08/2006
FRK (Florida Rock--$59.98; +0.13; optionable): Cement. Forecast to announce a split early May.
BACKGROUND: Frequent splits. Last announced a 3:2 split on 5-4-05 at $59.50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/frk.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume surged Thursday and Friday as FRK rallied up to the recent highs at 60 in the handle to its 6 month base. Positive 7 to 5 accumulation shows net buying as FRK sets up for the break higher toward a new all-time high. Strong money flow is surging higher. Like the recent volume but showed a doji Friday at the top of the handle range. May fade to start the week, make a higher low and then move back up.
Volume: 1.134M Avg Volume: 698.96K
BUY POINT: $60.55 Volume=1M Target=$70.45 Stop=$58.00
POSITION: FRK IL - June $60c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/frk.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/25/2006
CHE (Chemed--$58.45; -0.61; optionable): Hospice care services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/che.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Some solid volume Friday as CHE jumped up to 59.75 on the high but then turned and closed lower a la the overall market. Good hold at the 18 day EMA (58.21) as the three week lateral move continues. Getting ready. To recap: Still a nice tight lateral move over the 18 day EMA after the mid-March breakout from its 12 week ascending base that formed using the 50 day EMA (55.98) as support. Excellent 6 to 0 accumulation shows all buying in the base. Nice action, ready for the next phase of the breakout.
Volume: 210.4K Avg Volume: 186.767K
BUY POINT: $59.88 Volume=225K Target=$68.95 Stop=$57.68
POSITION: CHE IL - Sept. $60c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/che.html
Play Date: 04/04/2006
THQI (THQ, Inc.--$26.25; -0.28; optionable): Electronic game software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/thqi.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Tried to make the move Friday (as did most stocks early on), but it couldn't hold the move, tapping at the 10 day EMA (25.96) on the low and rebounding slightly. Stronger volume but needs more. Strong money flow is leading higher. Just needs to make the move stick. To recap: In January THQI rallied to match its all-time high. After that run it needed a breather and fell into the current 12 week base. It used the prior November and December range as its support to form this base, a good indication that breakout will hold. It rallied then came back to the 50 day EMA (25.22) to form the handle, the final shakeout prior to the breakout. Has moved back to the top of the range and looks ready to show us the breakout. Strong money flow is running higher and accumulation is a strong 4 to 1.
Volume: 666.35K Avg Volume: 905.698K
BUY POINT: $26.75 Volume=1.5M Target=$31.88 Stop=$25.00
POSITION: QHI IE - Sept. $25c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/thqi.html
CURRENT LEADER PLAY:
Play Date: 04/06/2006
SIRF (Sirf Tech Holdings--$38.32; +0.32; optionable): Global positioning semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sirf.html
STATUS: Flat base. Doji Friday on lower, below average volume as SIRF tested the mid and late March highs in its base. Showed a doji Friday, not the greatest pattern at this resistance point, but still a solid pattern from a solid stock and looking for the breakout move. To recap: Volume jumped back above average Thursday as SIRF comes off the 50 day EMA (35.81), the bottom of its 9 week flat base. Excellent 4 to 1 accumulation shows almost all buying as the stock consolidates its January breakout. Like the volume jump and looking to move in as this leader with strong fundamentals and solid pattern breaks higher.
Volume: 1.383M Avg Volume: 1.528M
BUY POINT: $38.55 Volume=2.3M Target=$44.95 Stop=$36.22
POSITION: QIR IH - Sept. $40c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sirf.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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