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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: AH; CYMI; GRMN; LRCX; RIG; RMBS
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 04/14/2006
CLDN (Celadon Group--$24.73; +0.02; no options): Air deliver and freight
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cldn.html
STATUS: Breakout test. CLDN split in mid-February, and after that it needed a rest. It fell into the current 7 week base, forming something of a double bottom using the 50 day EMA (22.90) as support. It undercut that level in late March but immediately recovered, a sign of good strength. It then made the breakout move and came back this past week to test, tapping at the 18 day EMA (23.92) on the intraday lows and recovering to hold positive. A strong market leader with some of the best sales & earnings growth in the market. Looking for this test to hold and then deliver a solid volume bounce higher. Relative strength broke out with the stock price, a good indication of its leadership place in the market.
Volume: 90.658K Avg Volume: 259.11K
BUY POINT: $25.11 Volume=350K Target=$30.00 Stop=$23.72
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cldn.html
New Leader Play: Could give us a split announcement at end of April.
Play Date: 04/14/2006
USG (USG Corp.--$111.25; -0.47; optionable): Building materials
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/usg.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Broke out early in April from its 9 week base was a strong one, and this test the past week is setting up another run higher for this market leaders. Nice low volume fade toward the 10 day EMA (107.61) shows little selling after that big surge. Strong money flow is running higher still. Looking for USG to continue this test over the next few sessions and then resume higher. Strong market leaders setting up for another new high.
Volume: 521.6K Avg Volume: 1.202M
BUY POINT: $113.21 Volume=1.2M Target=$133.50 Stop=$108.88
POSITION: UZO HC - Aug. $115c (54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/usg.html
New buy point on current Leader Play positions:
Play Date: 04/08/2006
SLAB (Silicon Labs--$55.49; +0.88; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slab.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Continues the nice test of the late March break higher, holding the 18 day EMA (54.46) to end the week. Good test and now ready to follow the money flow higher. To recap: SLAB is in the hunt to breakout over its early 2004 high at 60, rallying to that level last week as it broke out from its 8 week ascending base. It used the 50 day EMA (50.57) on the base lows, an indication of institutional support for the stock. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation shows buying as it set up, and strong volume on the breakout shows them jumping in as SLAB moved higher. Nice fade to test the move. Strong leader giving us a nice test of the breakout to enter.
Volume: 1.383M Avg Volume: 1.494M
BUY POINT: $55.85 on this rebound from the test. Volume=1.7M Target=$67.85 Stop=$54.94
POSITION: QFJ GK - July $55c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/s/slab.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
ANSS: Looking for an announcement with its shareholder meeting that will occur in late May or early June (date not yet set).
ASEI: Tentatively set for 5-12-06 (Just announced earnings on 2-8-06). Good recovery after the Tuesday dive below the 50 day EMA. If it can continue we will look at some new positions.
CX: Forecast 4-28-06
DAKT: Looking for a possible announcement with its June 1 board meeting.
DO: Forecast 4-26-06 after the close. That is the likely date though if not, the 5-22-06 shareholder meeting.
FRK: Forecast early May.
GG: Researching to pinpoint the date.
GILD: Forecast for 4-17-06 after the close. Holding at the 50 day EMA with still a double top to deal with.
GPRO: Tentatively set for 5-3-06
GRMN: Forecast 5-6-06
IEX: Boosted its dividend 4-4-06. Earnings are 4-20-06; may see something at that point but has to set up again.
LLL: Forecast 4-25-06 with its shareholders meeting. Ugly fall through the 50 day EMA last week and not much of a rebound thus far.
LMT: Forecast to announce with shareholder meeting on 4-27-06 at 10:30ET.
LRCX: Forecast 4-12-06 after the close. No split announcement but a solid out look sent it higher.
MRO: Forecast 4-27-06
PLCE: Forecast 5-18-06 or with the shareholder meeting on 6-22-06.
POOL: Forecast 4-20-06 before the open.
RIG: Forecast 5-4-06 before the open
SU: Forecast 5-4-06
TEX: Forecast late April
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/14/2006
BNI (Burlington Northern--$83.39; +0.36; optionable): Railroads. Forecast 4-25-06.
BACKGROUND: Announced its only split (3:1) in February 1998.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bni.html
STATUS: Breakout test. BNI ran hard from November through January and needed a breather. It formed an 8 week base using the 50 day EMA (79.86) as support. It did not dip much in the base as not many wanted to sell it. Nice surge out of that pattern to start the moneh and then a test the past week as the market pulled back. Nice low volume fade to the 18 day EMA (82.76) that held the breakout and is setting up the next run in the breakout move. Strong 4 to 0 accumulation in the base shows all buying. Strong money flow to match, and a relative strength breakout when the stock broke higher to start April. Looked ready to move back up Thursday; just need to see some volume as it does.
Volume: 1.072M Avg Volume: 2.3M
BUY POINT: $83.88 Volume=2.5M Target=$96.95 Stop=$82.42
POSITION: BNI GP - July $80c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bni.html
Play Date: 04/14/2006
CLZR (Candela--$22.00; +0.07; optionable): Medical appliances and equipment. Forecast 5-2-06 after the close.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 1-27-04 at $24.50. Before that it announced a 3:2 split on 1-19-00 at $19.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/clzr.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. CLZR is a solid market leader and boasts some of the best earnings and sales growth. It is currently working laterally in a flying plateau, holding above the 10 day EMA (21.53) as it tests the late March breakout from its 7 week ascending base. It dipped Tuesday to the 18 day EMA (20.98) and then immediately rebounded, continuing the lateral consolidation. That looks like a good shakeout to set up the next move higher. Excellent money flow is leading the way higher. Relative strength broke out on the move and is ready to do so again as breaks out of this range and to a new all-time high. Going to be patient and let it complete the lateral consolidation. Then we move in as it breaks higher.
Volume: 256.845K Avg Volume: 448.643K
BUY POINT: $22.57 Volume=673K Target=$27.00 Stop=$20.99
POSITION: UKZ HX - Aug. $22.50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/clzr.html
Play Date: 04/14/2006
JNC (John Nuveen--$47.93; -0.06; optionable): Asset Management. Forecast to announce a split 4-19-06.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 5-9-02 at $59. Prior to that a 3:2 split on 8-9-01 at $63.30.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jnc.html
STATUS: Breakout test. A market leader that just broke out in early April and is now making a nice, low volume test, fading back to near support at the 18 day EMA (47.79). That is key support on a breakout test; there is some quick profit taking but on light volume shows no heavy selling. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the base shows plenty of buying, and the hold at the 50 day EMA (46.79) on the lows shows big money supporting the stock as well. Solid and ready to continue higher.
Volume: 196.6K Avg Volume: 526.078K
BUY POINT: $48.28 Volume=650K Target=$55.50 Stop=$47.54
POSITION: JNC IJ - Sept. $50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jnc.html
Play Date: 04/14/2006
NUE (Nucor--$109.55; +2.34; optionable): Steel & iron. Forecast to announce a split 4-20-06.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 9-9-04 at $82.30.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nue.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. NUE broke higher in January and rallied straight up the 10 day EMA (107.50) into April. It peaked just over a week back and has made a modest test, coming down to tap at the 18 day EMA (105.15), not even hitting it on the lows. Low volume pullback, taking a breather ahead of earnings. Bounced Thursday off that level but not a lot of trade with it. Looking for more volume as it continues higher.
Volume: 2.066M Avg Volume: 2.697M
BUY POINT: $109.95 Volume=4M Target=$130.00 Stop=$105.00
POSITION: NUE GB - July $110c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nue.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/08/2006
FRK (Florida Rock--$59.43; +0.31; optionable): Cement. Forecast to announce a split early May.
BACKGROUND: Frequent splits. Last announced a 3:2 split on 5-4-05 at $59.50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/frk.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Rising volume Thursday (though still below average) as FRK tested the 10 day EMA (58.72) on the low and rebounded. Making a higher low at the 10 day, and that is setting up the breakout. To recap: Nice volume surge a week back to take FRK to the breakout point and then a nice fade to make the higher low. Looks ready to break through resistance at 60 and give us the breakout from its 6 month base. Positive 7 to 5 accumulation shows net buying as FRK sets up for the break higher toward a new all-time high. Strong money flow is surging higher. Like the recent volume but showed a doji Friday at the top of the handle range. May fade to start the week, make a higher low and then move back up.
Volume: 549.9K Avg Volume: 699.324K
BUY POINT: $60.55 Volume=1M Target=$70.45 Stop=$58.00
POSITION: FRK IL - June $60c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/frk.html
Play Date: 04/11/2006
TEX (Terex--$82.94; +0.05; optionable): Large heavy construction machinery. Forecast to announce a split in late April.
BACKGROUND: No splits in TEX' history
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tex.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Big TEX continues to test the breakout, holding above the 18 day EMA (82.74) on very low, below average volume. It is set; just has to show us the move. To recap: TEX gapped higher to start the month on strong volume when it pre-announced strong earnings. It has come back the past week on lower volume to test that move and fill the gap out of its short four week base. Tapping the 18 day EMA on the lows last week, bouncing higher to close. Good shakeout action. Looks as if the test is over and TEX is ready to move higher and resume the breakout.
Volume: 295.2K Avg Volume: 580.271K
BUY POINT: $82.89 Volume=800K Target=$97.95 Stop=$80.57
POSITION: TEX GP - July $80c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tex.html
CONTINUING PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/11/2006
BLUD (Immucor--$30.45; +0.04; optionable): Diagnostic testing. Splits 3:2 on 5-16-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/blud.html
STATUS: Cup. Still holding up, testing the breakout attempt on Tuesday. Filled that gap, showing a doji Thursday over the 10 day EMA (29.88). Looks ready to continue upside. To recap: BLUD has formed a 7 week cup base over the 50 day EMA (29.02) acting as the handle to a larger 11 month cup with handle. Solid volume last week as BLUD rallied up toward the breakout, and solid volume Tuesday on the announcement. It could not hold the move given the market, but very strong and ready for the breakout move. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) in this short handle, showing plenty of buying.
Volume: 279.062K Avg Volume: 355.471K
BUY POINT: $31.45 Volume=528K Target=$36.95 Stop=$29.45
POSITION: QMQ IF - Sept. $30c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/blud.html
Play Date: 04/10/2006
HP (Helmerich & Payne--$70.36; +0.92; optionable): Oil and gas drilling. Splits 2:1 on a date to be announced
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hp.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working laterally over the 18 and 50 day EMA (68.72, 67.64) as it tries to complete the handle to its 10 week base. Formed a reverse head and shoulders on the lows and is ready to make its move after two weeks of lateral movement.
Volume: 403.2K Avg Volume: 807.91K
BUY POINT: $71.65 Volume=950K Target=$80.00 Stop=$68.89
POSITION: HP IN - Sept. $70c (56 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hp.html
Play Date: 04/11/2006
NBR (Nabors Industries--$72.70; +0.94; optionable): Oil & gas drilling. Splits 2:1 on 4-18-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nbr.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Very similar to HP, NBR is working laterally over the 50 day EMA (70.50) as well, moving on low volume and forming its handle. Just waiting for one of these guys to show us a strong break higher. To recap: With the split approaching and NBR continue to move laterally over the 50 day EMA on the low and holding the 10 day EMA (71.71) on the close, looks as if NBR is ready to make the move higher. It is working in a two week lateral range, forming a handle to a 12 week double bottom with handle of sorts. Volume edged up to start the week as NBR holds tight over the 10 day. Looking for that volume to propel it on the breakout move.
Volume: 2.618M Avg Volume: 3.985M
BUY POINT: $73.32 Volume=5M Target=$82.95 Stop=$71.21
POSITION: NBR FN - June $70c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nbr.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/04/2006
THQI (THQ, Inc.--$26.82; -0.15; optionable): Electronic game software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/thqi.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume exploded higher Thursday but THQI went nowhere. Strong price move Wednesday on average trade, but could follow through Thursday. No information on what the cause of the volume was, but we are viewing it as a 'get ready' spike, i.e. get ready for a break higher. To recap: In January THQI rallied to match its all-time high. After that run it needed a breather and fell into the current 12 week base. It used the prior November and December range as its support to form this base, a good indication that breakout will hold. It rallied then came back to the 50 day EMA (25.42) to form the handle, the final shakeout prior to the breakout. Has moved back to the top of the range and looks ready to show us the breakout. Strong money flow is running higher and accumulation is a strong 4 to 1.
Volume: 2.407M Avg Volume: 919.54K
BUY POINT: New: $27.25 (orig. $26.75) Volume=1.5M Target=$31.88 Stop=$25.00
POSITION: QHI IE - Sept. $25c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/thqi.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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