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us stock market, trend trading stock
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ADS; CTRP; CTXS; GFIG; GOOG; INFA; MCHP; MGI; SNDK
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 04/20/2006
GPRO (Gen Probe--$55.05; +1.42; optionable): Diagnosis products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gpro.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. GPRO broke out from a 12 month base in early March, posting a solid gain from 50 to 56 on almost two weeks of strong, above average volume. It peaked and then slid laterally, falling to the 50 day EMA (52.39) the past week. That kept its breakout in tact, however, shaking out the short term sellers. Thursday it jumped higher on sharp, above average volume. Looks ready to continue the breakout toward a new all-time high. Solid, solid leader.
Volume: 435.889K Avg Volume: 359.959K
BUY POINT: $55.55 Volume=540K Target=$63.95 Stop=$53.42
POSITION: PSU HK - Aug. $55c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gpro.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Play Date: 04/19/2006
AMT (American Tower--$32.28; -0.19; optionable): Wireless and broadcast communications sites
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amt.html
EARNINGS: 4-26-06
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume backed off Thursday as AMT hled basically steady, unable to push higher and follow through on the Wednesday move. Still solid, still ready to make its move. To recap: Volume surged Wednesday as AMT broke higher in the handle to its 7 week base that is setting AMT up for a 6 year high. Very nice pattern that formed using the 50 day EMA (30.75) as support, a key level where institutions accumulate shares. They have been doing that as the excellent 4 to 0 accumulation shows (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume). Money flow is surging higher, a good complement to the accumulation. Ready to move in as AMT continues the breakout move. Solid.
Volume: 2.09M Avg Volume: 2.912M
BUY POINT: $32.68 Volume=3M Target=$37.95 Stop=$31.38
POSITION: AMT JT - Oct. $32.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amt.html
Play Date: 04/18/2006
DIOD (Diodes--$41.87; -1.08; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/diod.html
STATUS: Breakout test. DIOD broke higher on above average volume Wednesday, clearing an 8 week ascending base. Solid pattern using the 50 day EMA (38.72) as support, setting up the breakout. This test is giving us a good entry point as it taps toward the 10 day EMA (40.94) and starts the rebound. Solid leader that is following the money. Relative strength broke out on the Wednesday move, a good indication it is going to continue higher.
Volume: 152.432K Avg Volume: 332.105K
BUY POINT: $41.25 Volume=498K Target=$49.50 Stop=$39.59
POSITION: DUH IH - Sept. $40c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/diod.html
Play Date: 04/19/2006
DO (Diamond Offshore--$94.75; -0.27; optionable): Offshore oil and gas drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/do.html
EARNINGS: 4-26-06
STATUS: Test breakout. Big doji with tail Thursday as DO reached down to the 18 day EMA (91.01) on the low and rebounded to close flat on lower but still above average volume. Good shakeout that is setting up the next break higher over resistance at 95. To recap: DO has bunched up below 95 the past three weeks, making higher lows along the 10 day EMA (92.93). DO is building pressure from below for the next move higher. Volume surged Tuesday and Wednesday, volume spikes that tell us to get ready for the next move higher. DO can run like the wind when it starts. Looks ready to make a move into its earnings.
Volume: 3.116M Avg Volume: 2.809M
BUY POINT: $95.48 Volume=2.8M Target=$109.95 Stop=$92.25
POSITION: DO IS - Sept. $95c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/do.html
CONTINUING PLAY TABLE:
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
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http://www.technicaltraders.com/ttr/table.php
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ADS 04/12 DB hdl 54.80 +6.66 48.25 56.95 5.5M 750K 52.55
Target Hit.
AH 03/11 Test 18 63.66 -0.89 58.92 69.42 590K 750K 62.11
Target Hit. Took some interim option gain ahead of earnings. Earnings were strong. No trades on AH at time of this writing.
AMLN 03/16 Rv H&S 47.64 -1.28 46.22 53.95 4.3M 2M 47.68
Current.
AMT 04/19 DB hdl 32.28 -0.19 32.68 37.95 2.1M 3M 31.38
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 32.76 at the intraday high, but gave it back on lower below average volume. Still forming the handle.
ANSS 04/10 PreAnn 55.18 -0.51 53.20 61.25 175K 325K 53.57
Current.
BLKB 03/25 Test BO 20.14 -0.04 20.68 24.55 255K 700K 20.17
Exited.
BOOM 04/01 Asc Bse 39.00 -0.93 37.89 44.95 493K 1.2M 37.65
CHRT 04/14 Test BO 10.07 -0.01 10.10 12.42 276K 225K 9.55
Current.
CLRK 04/12 Test 50 20.70 +0.03 19.95 23.95 66K 175K 18.55
Buy Not Issued.
CTRN 04/14 Cup hdl 48.97 +0.77 47.25 56.75 117K 379K 44.45
Buy Not Issued. Volume not there to enter the play. Will let test back.
CTRP 03/11 Test BO 47.00 +1.28 38.60 44.48 501K 400K 45.00
Current. Nice move up the 10 day MVA on average volume.
CTXS 01/25 Test BO 41.95 +3.07 31.05 36.95 8.7M 3M 40.00
Target Hit. Huge gap up at the open showing a doji on very strong volume surge. Took some of the money off the table and will let the remaining position work for us.
CTXS 01/04 Test BO 41.95 +3.07 30.05 35.95 8.7M 2.2M 40.00
Target Hit.
CYMI 04/03 Dbl btm 55.93 +0.04 48.12 57.45 1.7M 1.3M 53.00
Current. Continue to trend higher.
DIOD 04/18 Asc Bse 41.87 -1.08 41.25 49.50 152K 498K 39.59
Buy Not Issued. Ease back on low volume. Will let stock continue to test back.
DO 04/19 Test BO 94.75 -0.27 95.48 109.95 3.1M 2.8M 92.25
Buy Not Hit. Pullback tapping 91.65 at the intraday low and rallied back on lower, but above average volume. Meeting some resistance at 95
DO 04/08 Test BO 94.75 -0.27 93.31 105.95 3.1M 3M 91.55
Current.
EGY 04/06 Rv H&S 7.58 -0.07 7.29 8.97 674K 1M 7.15
Current.
ENER 04/17 DB hdl 51.55 -1.73 51.63 61.00 1.6M 1.8M 50.85
Current. Pullback testing the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back on average volume. Testing the breakout. May continue to test back to 10 day MVA (50)
FORM 03/29 Flat 44.40 +0.69 40.88 47.88 1M 1.1M 42.25
Current. Continue to trend higher on above average volume.
GFIG 04/14 DB hdl 58.98 +1.41 58.83 68.95 129K 360K 56.95
Current.
GG 03/20 Asc Bse 31.37 -1.20 28.32 33.98 6.7M 5.6M 30.55
Current. Pullback on stronger above average volume. May continue to test back to 10 day MVA (30.98)
GLG 04/12 Test BO 35.30 -3.09 36.59 43.72 3M 1.8M 36.25
Current. Pullback below the 10 day MVA on very strong volume surge. May test back to 18 day MVA (34.54)
GOOG 04/04 DB hdl 415.00 +4.50 412.04 439.75 11M 20M 405.00
Current. Blowout earnings after hours has GOOG trading near 440.
INFA 04/01 DB hdl 16.66 +1.02 16.44 19.84 3M 3.4M 15.78
Current. Bounced off the 18 day MVA for a great move on stronger above average volume. Moving up after testing the 50 day MVA.
ITRI 03/27 Test BO 63.98 -0.01 62.36 73.75 289K 775K 62.89
Current. Pullback testing the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back on low volume. Testing the breakout. May continue to test back to 10 day MVA (62.91)
LEH 04/04 PreAnn 155.26 -0.06 150.12 169.00 1.4M 3M 153.12
Current. Beginning to consolidate holding the gain on low volume.
MANT 04/17 Test BO 32.63 -0.40 32.77 38.95 150K 400K 31.65
Current. Pullback testing the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back on rising, but below average volume. Moving up after testing the 18 day MVA.
MCHP 04/03 Cup 37.68 +0.58 37.56 43.95 1.7M 2M 36.35
Current. Another nice move up the 10 day MVA on above average volume. Moving up after testing the 50 day MVA.
MFLX 04/17 Test 50 60.24 -1.25 61.49 70.95 228K 550K 59.95
Current. Ease back on low volume holding below the 18 day MVA. Should hold here and rebound.
MGI 02/22 DB hdl 34.90 +2.86 28.69 33.98 2.2M 550K 33.00
Target Hit. Huge gap up at the open on very strong volume surge. Took some of the money off the table and will let the remaining position work for us.
MPWR 04/08 Cup hdl 18.52 +0.46 18.55 22.95 171K 285K 17.25
Buy Not Hit.
NETL 03/25 Asc Bse 43.04 -1.67 39.48 47.32 394K 564K 42.88
Current. Ease back on low volume. Testing the breakout. May continue to test back to support at 42.
NGPS 04/01 Test BO 36.92 +0.50 37.27 44.00 113K 200K 35.35
Buy Not Hit.
NTES 04/19 Test BO 22.78 -0.24 24.05 28.88 913K 4.7M 22.37
Buy Not Hit. Pullback on low volume. Still in the pattern.
NTRI 04/14 DB hdl 49.73 -1.81 47.19 56.00 941K 1.5M 49.35
Current. Pullback on much lower below average volume. Testing the breakout. May continue to test back to support at 48.76
NURO 04/10 Asc Bse 39.78 +0.58 39.65 47.55 74K 248K 37.11
Buy Not Issued. Volume no there to enter the play. If stock continues the move tomorrow on strong volume will be a buy.
PLLL 04/10 Cup 23.52 +0.22 21.55 25.88 631K 565K 21.89
Current. Tapped 22.36 at the intraday low and rallied back on stronger above average volume. Continue with the uptrend.
QCOM 03/08 Rv H&S 51.84 -0.66 50.91 59.95 13M 19M 50.89
Current. Pullback testing the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back on slightly above average volume. May continue to test back to 10 day MVA (51.58)
QUIK 04/14 Test 50 6.20 +0.07 6.48 7.78 96K 315K 6.05
Buy Not Hit.
QUIK 03/04 Cup hdl 6.20 +0.07 5.29 6.48 96K 360K 6.04
Current.
RDC 04/05 Rv H&S 47.08 -0.87 45.38 52.38 2.5M 2.5M 45.85
Current. Pullback testing the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back on slightly above average volume. Testing the breakout. May test back to 46.
SLAB 04/08 Test BO 57.43 +0.17 57.74 67.85 1.4M 1.7M 54.77
Current. Moving up on average volume after testing the 18 day MVA.
SLAB 03/22 Test 50 57.43 +0.17 51.68 61.65 1.4M 1.8M 57.44
Current.
SMSI 04/12 Test 18 11.39 -0.21 12.11 14.65 207K 400K 11.38
Buy Not Hit. Gapped down showing a doji just below the 18 day MVA on rising, but below average volume. Doji may indicate a change in pattern to the upside.
SNDK 04/18 Rv H&S 65.54 +1.77 64.88 76.95 16M 13M 62.65
Buy Not Issued.
SNDK 04/05 Rv H&S 65.54 +1.77 64.88 76.95 16M 13M 62.65
Current. Announced earnings and trading near 62 after hours,
right at 10 day EMA.
TFSM 03/22 DB hdl 10.66 -0.95 10.16 12.25 1.7M 1.4M 11.32
Trailing Stop.
TOMO 03/29 DB hdl 27.70 -0.61 25.30 30.32 216K 500K 26.96
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back on low volume. Meeting some resistance at 28.15.
TOO 04/17 Test 18 37.17 +0.63 35.89 41.95 297K 625K 34.69
Buy Not Issued.
TRID 03/07 Test 18 30.57 -0.50 29.31 35.35 811K 2M 29.32
Current.
USG 04/14 Test BO 113.32 +0.52 113.82 133.50 705K 1.2M 112.25
Current.
USG 03/10 Asc Bse 113.32 +0.52 87.88 99.95 705K 1.6M 111.72
Current.
VIMC 04/08 FlyPlat 19.40 -1.36 21.75 26.55 606K 450K 20.23
Current.
VLTR 04/19 Asc Bse 18.99 +0.28 19.55 23.50 93K 481K 18.22
Buy Not Hit.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AMD 04/19 Put 31.38 -0.16 31.35 29.55 15M 19M 31.72
Buy Not Hit. Showing another doji on average volume. Looking for stock to turnover here.
JBLU 04/11 Put 9.29 -0.14 10.20 8.90 5.8M 4.9M 9.55
Current. Continue to move down the 10 day MVA on lower, but above average volume.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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