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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ADS; AMT; CHRT; GG; GLG; GOOG; ITRI; MGI; JBLU
Strong plays:
1) LMIA: Breaking out on strong trade.
2) AMX: Nice pattern ready for the breakout
3) RYI: Excellent pattern and action
4) AQNT: Good test and recovery.
5) CLDN: Another nice test and recovery
6) DIOD: Ready to move after its test.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 04/24/2006
LMIA (LMI Aerospace--$19.24; +1.19; no options): Structural components, etc. for aerospace/defense sector
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lmia.html
After Hours: $19.21
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout. Strong volume Monday as LMIA gapped higher out of its 14 week base, moving to a new all-time high as it did. Nice pattern formed right on top of the 50 day EMA (16.42), a key support level where institutions accumulate shares. Money flow is leading higher and LMIA looks ready to follow. Relative strength broke out as well on the move, a good corroboration of the price breakout. Ready to move in on a further move higher and then we will look at adding shares when LMIA makes its first successful test of the breakout.
Volume: 355.126K Avg Volume: 140.368K
BUY POINT: $19.38 Volume=163K Target=$23.50 Stop=$18.02
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/lmia.html
Play Date: 04/24/2006
NIHD (NII Hldgs--$59.36; +1.11; optionable): Wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nihd.html
After Hours: $58.75
STATUS: Test breakout. NIHD is taking a breather the past three weeks, holding the 18 day EMA (57.46) on the low and now right back up at the high the past five sessions, butting up against the breakout. Can run fast when it gets going, and it has held up well in this recent dip. Solid leader.
Volume: 1.1M Avg Volume: 1.365M
BUY POINT: $59.75 Volume=1.8M Target=$68.50 Stop=$57.32
POSITION: QHQ IL - Sept. $60c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nihd.html
Play Date: 04/24/2006
RADN (Radyne Comstream--$15.49; +0.39; no options): Telecom communication equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/radn.html
After Hours: $16.40
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. RADN set up a 15 week base around the 50 day EMA (14.76). Got a bit wild to start April, but recovered and formed the rest of the handle. Excellent 5 to 1 accumulation (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buying as it sets up for a 5.5 year high. After hours it reports strong earnings and was trading up near our buy point. Looking for the gap higher to hold and when it does we will move in to start the play.
Volume: 229.088K Avg Volume: 202.724K
BUY POINT: $16.38 Volume=304K Target=$19.75 Stop=$15.23
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/radn.html
Play Date: 04/24/2006
RYI (Ryerson Tull--$30.42; +1.26; optionable): Metal fabrication
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/ryi.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Strong volume Monday as RYI started the breakout move from its 11 week base. Nicely formed pattern. Strong money flow, excellent price/volume action. Solid market leader in a strong sector, ready to move to a new 10 year high.
Volume: 842.2K Avg Volume: 547.67K
BUY POINT: $30.57 Volume=650K Target=$36.65 Stop=$28.55
POSITION: RYI IF - Sept. $30c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ryi.html
Play Date: 04/24/2006
TFSM (24/7 Real Media--$10.49; -0.34; optionable): Media services, software products for online advertising
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tfsm.html
Earnings: 5-4-06
STATUS: Breakout test. TFSM made us some money earlier then turned on us toward the end of last week. It has come back to the 18 day EMA (10.41) and held that level Monday on lower volume. That maintains the breakout from the January to March base that formed using the 50 day EMA (9.69) as support. Money flow is leading higher and relative strength broke out on the move. Looking for a hold here and a resumption of the upside.
Volume: 566.185K Avg Volume: 1.034M
BUY POINT: $11.00 Volume=1.4M Target=$13.25 Stop=$10.32
POSITION: QNE JB - Oct. $10c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tfsm.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Play Date: 04/22/2006
AL (Alcan, Inc.--$52.18; +0.09; optionable): Aluminum
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/al.html
EARNINGS: 5-2-06
STATUS: Breakout test. Took the day off Monday, showing a doji over the 10 day EMA (51.27), continuing the test of its April breakout. Great action setting up the next move. To recap: We talked of energy and commodity stocks setting up well for further runs higher, and AL is one of those. It broke out from its 8 week base to start April, rallying up the 10 day EMA. Last week it made its first test of the breakout, tapping at the 18 day EMA (50.97) on the Thursday low then rebounding Friday on stronger above average volume. Excellent 4 to 1 accumulation in the base (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume) shows plenty of buying as AL formed the base; the big money was using the consolidation to buy more shares. Strong pattern, nice breakout, solid test. Friday looked like the start of the rebound, and we are ready to move in on a continued volume move higher.
Volume: 1.678M Avg Volume: 1.779M
BUY POINT: $52.72 Volume=2M Target=$62.90 Stop=$50.55
POSITION: AL IJ - Sept. $50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/al.html
Play Date: 04/22/2006
AQNT (Aquantive--$26.39; +0.61; optionable): Digital marketing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aqnt.html
EARNINGS: 5-8-06
After Hours: $26.38
STATUS: Nice reach lower to the 10 day EMA (25.40) Monday and then a rebound to close positive. It is forming something of a handle the past few sessions; not bad, consolidating the early April move. Just being patient, letting it set up and show us the move. To recap: Strong market leader in a 15 week base. Just coming off a low at the 200 day SMA (22.76) in late March, rallying on solid volume Wednesday and then testing Thursday and Friday on low volume. May come back to the 10 day EMA (25.18) before it is ready to resume the move toward a new all-time high. Sold 4 to 2 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buying that helps power a stock higher out of a base. Strong money flow is jumping higher ahead of price. After this modest test has run its course AQNT will be ready to move higher. A market leader in earnings and sales.
Volume: 896.918K Avg Volume: 1.447M
BUY POINT: $27.15 Volume=2.2M Target=$32.95 Stop=$25.25
POSITION: QBT IE - Sept. $25c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/aqnt.html
Play Date: 04/22/2006
CLDN (Celadon Group--$26.27; +0.72; no options): Air delivery and freight
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cldn.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Big reach down intraday down to 24 and then a furious rebound to post a nice gain on rising volume. Looks ready to continue the breakout move. To recap: CLDN is a market leader that split in late February, and as is often the case, it needed a bit of a breather after that event in order to absorb the additional shares and consolidate the move higher into the split. It did that with its 8 week base that formed as CLDN slipped quietly back to the 50 day EMA (23.56) and then rebounded. Well, it was not all quiet; it undercut the 50 day EMA one session but it showed strength and immediately recovered that level. It then proceeded to breakout, rallying to 28 on the Thursday high after reporting solid earnings. It reversed and faded that day and Friday, but showing a nice hammer doji Friday at the 10 day EMA. That tests the move and holds the breakout, setting up the next move higher. Strong, market leading earnings and sales growth.
Volume: 353.791K Avg Volume: 252.544K
BUY POINT: New: $26.55 (orig. $26.25) Volume=379K Target=$31.95 Stop=$25.12
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cldn.html
Play Date: 04/22/2006
CRED (Credo Petroleum--$26.10; +0.32; no options): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cred.html
EARNINGS: 4-20-06 (last week)
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice quiet doji over the 10 day EMA (25.24) Monday as CRED continues working on its handle, the shakeout of the last sellers before it makes the breakout. Just being patient. To recap: CRED sports some of the best sales and earnings growth rates in the market, and given it is in a segment enjoying strong earnings growth thanks to higher oil, that is significant. Nice 12 week base has formed using the 50 day EMA (23.31) as support, setting up for a breakout and run to a new all-time high. One of the energy stocks that has sold back and set up a new base. Nice pattern ready to make the breakout. After this low volume test lower in the handle the sellers are gone and the breakout is coming.
Volume: 49.455K Avg Volume: 102.059K
BUY POINT: $26.78 Volume=153K Target=$32.00 Stop=$24.95
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cred.html
Play Date: 04/18/2006
DIOD (Diodes--$41.89; +0.48; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/diod.html
After Hours: $42.03
STATUS: Breakout test. Trying to make the bounce off the 18 day EMA (40.74), testing it again Monday on the low and rebounding to close positive. Solid action and looks ready to show us the move higher. To recap: DIOD broke higher on above average volume Wednesday, clearing an 8 week ascending base. Solid pattern using the 50 day EMA (38.82) as support, setting up the breakout. This test is giving us a good entry point as it taps toward the 10 day EMA and starts the rebound. Solid leader that is following the money. Relative strength broke out on the Wednesday move, a good indication it is going to continue higher. A leader in its sector.
Volume: 125.562K Avg Volume: 328.605K
BUY POINT: New: $41.95 (orig. $41.25) Volume=498K Target=$49.50 Stop=$39.59
POSITION: DUH IH - Sept. $40c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/diod.html
Play Date: 04/19/2006
DO (Diamond Offshore--$94.24; -1.14; optionable): Offshore oil and gas drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/do.html
EARNINGS: 4-26-06
STATUS: Test breakout. Still in the nice test of the strong move last week, tapping the 18 day EMA (40.74) on the low and rebounding for a modest gain. Still ready to make the break higher. To recap: DO has bunched up below 95 the past three weeks, making higher lows along the 10 day EMA (93.38). DO is building pressure from below for the next move higher. Volume surged Tuesday and Wednesday, volume spikes that tell us to get ready for the next move higher. DO can run like the wind when it starts. Looks ready to make a move into its earnings.
Volume: 1.92M Avg Volume: 2.828M
BUY POINT: $95.48 Volume=2.8M Target=$109.95 Stop=$92.25
POSITION: DO IS - Sept. $95c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/do.html
Play Date: 04/22/2006
SUN (Sunoco--$86.02; -1.12; optionable): Oil and gas refining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sun.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Faded on lower volume but still held in the lateral handle, setting up the breakout. Just hasn't shown us the move yet. Nice pattern; just waiting for the breakout. To recap: Another energy stock that shows the pullback and then basing action seen by many energy stocks this year after strong 2005 runs. SUN has set up an 11 week base using the 200 day SMA (75.79) as support. Strong move last week off the 50 day EMA (80.58) and then a lateral move of sorts to form a small handle. Volume jumped Friday as SUN matched the Wednesday high. Plenty of upside as it continues its break higher.
Volume: 1.639M Avg Volume: 2.493M
BUY POINT: $87.55 Volume=3.2M Target=$100.00 Stop=$85.45
POSITION: SUN HQ - Aug. $85c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sun.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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