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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: ANSS; FORM; GG; WIRE
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 04/25/2006
CORS (Corus Bankshares--$62.23; +0.32; optionable): Midwest banks. Splits 2:1 on 5-19-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cors.html
After Hours: $62.23
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. CORS has formed the current 13 week base as part of a larger 9 month ascending base. Excellent pullback the past week to form the handle to the base, shaking out the last sellers and setting up the breakout move. Strong money flow is surging higher even as CORS makes the pullback. Nice reach down to the 10 day EMA (61.14) and rebound on rising, above average volume. Good shakeout, setting the stage for the breakout move.
Volume: 299.545K Avg Volume: 266.275K
BUY POINT: $63.05 Volume=399K Target=$72.00 Stop=$61.00
POSITION: QBA IL - Sept. $60c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cors.html
Play Date: 04/25/2006
BRY (Berry Petroleum--$76.61; -0.34; optionable): Independent oil and gas. Splits 2:1 on 6-5-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bry.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume jumped this week as BRY moved laterally, tapping at the 10 day EMA (75.30) on the Tuesday low and rebounding to close flat. Very nicely formed 12 week base using the 50 day EMA on the lows as support (71.04). It will likely take a day or two as the energy sector tests/consolidates a bit more and then BRY will be ready to breakout with it.
Volume: 244.5K Avg Volume: 207.16K
BUY POINT: $78.05 Volume=311K Target=$89.95 Stop=$75.05
POSITION: BRY HP - Aug. $80c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bry.html
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 04/25/2006
VSEA (Varian Semiconductor--$29.83; +0.71; optionable): Semiconductor equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vsea.html
STATUS: Double bottom. VSEA split in early march as it faded in the first part of this base, a pretty serious drop from 35 to 27. It rebounded at that point and has moved higher the past 6 weeks, forming a double bottom of sorts just below the 200 day SMA (29.48). Made a higher low this month and rallied back to 30, the 'hump' in the pattern. Volume was up Tuesday as VSEA jumped off the 18 day EMA (29.05). Looks ready to deliver the breakout move but want to see that volume run as it does.
Volume: 1.138M Avg Volume: 1.137M
BUY POINT: $30.42 Volume=1.4M Target=$36.00 Stop=$29.00
POSITION: UES HF - Aug. $30c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vsea.html
New buy point on current leader position:
Play Date: 04/25/2006
CYMI (Cymer--$52.19; -1.05; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cymi.html
STATUS: Test breakout. CYMI blasted higher last week on strong volume, moving to a 5 year high on a strong earnings report. It has come back to test the move, holding above the 10 day EMA (51.54) on lower but still strong volume. Looking for this market leader to make the test of the 10 day and then start back up for a continued run. That is when we will move in once more.
Volume: 1.23M Avg Volume: 980.803K
BUY POINT: $52.65 Volume=1.5M Target=$62.00 Stop=$51.22
POSITION: CQG HJ - Aug. $50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cymi.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
ANSS: Looking for an announcement with its shareholder meeting that will occur in late May or early June (date not yet set). Earnings are 4-27-06.
ASEI: Tentatively set for 5-12-06 (Just announced earnings on 2-8-06). Good recovery over the 50 day EMA and still testing that move. This may give us the move we want.
BNI: No split announcement 4-25-06.
CLF: Forecast 4-26-06
CNQ: Forecast 5-4-06
CRDN: Forecast 4-27-06
CX: Forecast 4-28-06
DAKT: Looking for a possible announcement with its June 1 board meeting.
DO: Forecast 4-26-06 after the close. That is the likely date though if not, the 5-22-06 shareholder meeting.
EOG: Forecast 5-5-06
FRK: Forecast early May.
GG: Researching to pinpoint the date.
GPRO: Tentatively set for 5-2-06
GRMN: Forecast 5-6-06
LLL: No split announced 4-25-06 as LLL tested the 50 day EMA again, rebounding off that level.
LMT: Forecast to announce with shareholder meeting on 4-27-06 at 10:30ET.
MRO: Forecast 4-27-06
PCU: Forecast 4-28-06
PLCE: Forecast 5-18-06 or with the shareholder meeting on 6-22-06.
PTEN: Forecast 5-3-06
RIG: Forecast 5-4-06 before the open
RIO: Forecast 5-10-06
SU: Forecast 5-4-06
TEX: Forecast late April
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/25/2006
CLE (Claires Stores--$35.41; +0.35; optionable): Apparel stores. Researching to pinpoint the date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 11-4-03 at $40.20
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cle.html
STATUS: Flat base. Might be a bit early on CLE, but after a strong sales report in early March it has formed a lateral 6 week pattern over the 18 day EMA (35.14) consolidating to set up the next break higher. A market leader with great earnings and sales growth rates. Just going to have to be patient and let CLE finish this lateral base and show us a high volume break through the buy point.
Volume: 596K Avg Volume: 758.695K
BUY POINT: $35.88 Volume=1.1M Target=$41.75 Stop=$24.78
POSITION: CLE HG - Aug. $35c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cle.html
New buy point on current position:
Play Date: 04/25/2006
SU (Suncor Energy--$86.26; -0.43; optionable): Independent oil and gas. Forecast 5-4-06
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 4-26-02 at $36.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/su.html
STATUS: Test breakout. SU broke higher to start April, rallying out of a 9 week base that formed over the 50 day EMA (78.79). It has already given us a nice run and profit, but this lateral and slightly lower move to the 10 day EMA (85.75) the past week is setting up another entry point for the run higher after SU catches its breath here. May take another session or two to complete the test, but we want to be ready when it makes the move.
Volume: 2.794M Avg Volume: 2.709M
BUY POINT: $87.35 Volume=3.2M Target=$99.90 Stop=$84.95
POSITION: SU IR - Sept. $90c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/su.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/22/2006
CRDN (Ceradyne--$55.51; +0.21; optionable): Body armor components, etc. Forecast 4-27-06
BACKGROUND: Announced a 3:2 split on 12-20-04 at $53.20. Prior to that a 3:2 split on 3-11-04 at $34.20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crdn.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Moving laterally on very low volume, hugging the 10 day EMA (54.17). Very quiet; the quiet before the storm. Want to see a breakout move before 4-27 but it might take the news to send it higher. To recap: Strong run from in the last half of 2005 through early March, then needed a breather and fell into the current 7 week base. Was in serious trouble two weeks back but then announced it would beat Q1 estimates. The stock reversed and rallied to 56, coming back nice and easy last week to test the 50 day EMA (53.14) on the intraday lows Thursday and Friday. Nice test ahead of earnings to take out some of the positive pre-earnings guidance run and set up the next leg higher. There is already word that the earnings are good and the upside pre-announcement lends well with a split announcement with earnings. Market leading sales and earnings growth.
Volume: 589.987K Avg Volume: 1.207M
BUY POINT: $56.75 Volume=1.8M Target=$67.95 Stop=$52.78
POSITION: AUE IK - Sept. $55c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/crdn.html
Play Date: 04/22/2006
PCU (Southern Copper--$98.80; +0.02; optionable): Copper. Forecast 4-28-06.
BACKGROUND: No splits in PCU's history
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcu.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Gapped higher Tuesday on rising, above average volume but could not hold the move, closing flat. Still looks ready to move, and we will be ready to move in as it continues and shows us the breakout. To recap: PCU jumped out of a 10 week cup with handle base to start last week then made a quick test of the 10 day EMA (96.03). Excellent base sporting solid 4 to 2 accumulation as it formed using the 50 day EMA (86.41) as support. Strong volume breakout and relative strength moved with it, a good corroboration of the move. After this quick test we are looking for PCU to resume the move higher. Market leader with leading sales and earnings growth.
Volume: 1.57M Avg Volume: 1.498M
BUY POINT: $100.11 Volume=2.2M Target=$120.00 Stop=$96.88
POSITION: PCU IT - Sept. $100c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pcu.html
Play Date: 04/19/2006
DO (Diamond Offshore--$93.81; -0.43; optionable): Offshore oil and gas drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/do.html
EARNINGS: 4-26-06
STATUS: Test breakout. Looking for the announcement after the close Wednesday. Tried the move Tuesday on strong volume but gave it all back. Held the 10 day EMA on the close, however, so looking for a rebound from here to open the play ahead of earnings after the Wednesday close. To recap: DO has bunched up below 95 the past three weeks, making higher lows along the 10 day EMA (93.59). DO is building pressure from below for the next move higher. Volume surged Tuesday and Wednesday, volume spikes that tell us to get ready for the next move higher. DO can run like the wind when it starts. Looks ready to make a move into its earnings.
Volume: 3.518M Avg Volume: 2.829M
BUY POINT: $95.48 Volume=2.8M Target=$109.95 Stop=$92.25
POSITION: DO IS - Sept. $95c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/do.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/18/2006
ADSK (Autodesk--$42.95; +0.57; optionable): Design software and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adsk.html
After Hours: $42.95
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume jumped well above average Tuesday as ADSK probed the breakout. It faded on the close but still looks super. To recap: Great market leader that had a great 2005 and has formed a nice 6 month base to reset and set up its next move. Solid 8 to 5 accumulation in the base shows net buying, setting up the next breakout and run higher. Nice volume the past two weeks, and it started back up Tuesday. Strong leader with good fundamentals. Looking to move in as it continues higher.
Volume: 4.409M Avg Volume: 3.142M
BUY POINT: $43.89 Volume=3.2M Target=$52.00 Stop=$41.55
POSITION: ADQ GH - July $40c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/adsk.html
Play Date: 04/20/2006
CELL (Brightpoint--$32.65; +0.12; optionable): Cell phone accessories, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cell.html
EARNINGS: May 9
STATUS: Ascending base. Moving laterally in a flat range over the 10 day EMA (31.89) as volume remains below average. Very quiet, and that typically precedes the next break higher. To recap: After a strong breakout in February, CELL slipped into the current 9 week lateral base, setting up for the next move higher as it worked laterally along the 18 day EMA (31.40). Excellent 4 to 0 accumulation in the pattern shows all buying as CELL forges to a new high. Dipped last week and then surged on solid trade Wednesday. Good shakeout and recovery, setting the stage for the breakout move.
Volume: 462.838K Avg Volume: 788.736K
BUY POINT: $32.65 Volume=850K Target=$39.00 Stop=$30.88
POSITION: ULN JF - Oct. $30c (78 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cell.html
Play Date: 04/22/2006
VIP (Vimple Communication--$46.88; -0.07; optionable): Russian wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vip.html
STATUS: Double bottom. VIP is definitely working on a handle to its base, easing back the past three sessions, shaking out the last sellers in the pattern. Setting up a nice base just below an all-time high. To recap: VIP was a big money maker for us in 2003 and 2004, but after those big runs it was overbought and needed a consolidation. It spent 2005 doing that, though it ended that year with a nice but volatile uptrend. It started 2006 testing that move, forming the current 13 week double bottom over the 200 day SMA (43.12), using that key level as support. The institutions either get on board with a stock at the 200 day or move on; here they were buying shares as the 3 to 1 accumulation also shows (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume). Big volume Friday on announcement of a bond offering. Reported earnings 4-18 and rose on solid trade. Paused Thursday and Friday; may form a handle here to its base, but it has some good momentum and we are ready to enter as it continues higher on solid trade.
Volume: 353.3K Avg Volume: 831.581K
BUY POINT: $47.55 Volume=1.2M Target=$55.00 Stop=$45.55
POSITION: VIP JI - Oct. $45c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vip.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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