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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: AMT; ANSS; BOOM; GG; GLG; ITRI; SMSI
Strong plays:
1) OTEX: Good volume as it breaks higher
2) SPIL: Strong trade as this leader moves toward the breakout
3) AMD: After a bit more upside, ready to fall
4) CYMI: Still set up well
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 04/26/2006
CTSH (Cognizant Technology--$62.70; -0.68; optionable): IT software. Potential to announce a split 5-3-06
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 4-12-04 at $47.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctsh.html
After Hours: $62.71
STATUS: Flying plateau. Nice lateral move on low volume as CTSH consolidates the strong move from two weeks back, holding a nice tight range over the 10 day EMA (62.28). Nice breakout from a 7 week ascending base making its lows along the 50 day EMA (58.37). Solid market leader with strong fundamentals to match is strong technical moves. After this lateral test it will be ready to continue its breakout to a new all-time high. May take a couple of sessions, but wanted to be ready if Bernanke inadvertently sparks a renewed rally.
Volume: 851.465K Avg Volume: 1.281M
BUY POINT: $64.05 Volume=1.4M Target=$73.95 Stop=$62.11
POSITION: UPU JM - Oct. $65c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ctsh.html
Play Date: 04/26/2006
EGO (El Dorado Gold--$5.16; 0.00; no options): Gold mining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ego.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice lateral handle has formed the past week as EGO moves laterally over the 10 day EMA (5.09), testing lower intraday, shaking out the sellers. Once they are gone then EGO can make the breakout from its 15 week base that formed over the 50 day EMA (4.73), using that as support. Strong money flow is leading higher. Ready for a breakout to a new all-time high.
Volume: 799.4K Avg Volume: 1.221M
BUY POINT: $5.42 Volume=1.8M Target=$6.78 Stop=$5.04
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ego.html
Play Date: 04/26/2006
GOOG (Google--$425.97; -1.19; optionable): Internet search, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/goog.html
After Hours: $426.80
STATUS: Test breakout. We made some good money on the GOOG earnings as GOOG learned from its past gaffes and kept its collective mouth shut, letting the numbers speak for themselves. We sold as soon as we could last Friday because we felt it would do just what it has, i.e. com back to test the move. Wednesday GOOG tapped toward the 10 day EMA (420.13) on low volume. Looks like that support is going to hold, and we want to move in as GOOG rebounds, catching the next part of the run.
Volume: 7.282M Avg Volume: 13.109M
BUY POINT: $428.00 Volume=15M Target=$465.00 Stop=$423.75
POSITION: GOP FF - June $430c (52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/goog.html
Play Date: 04/26/2006
OTEX (Open Text--$17.84; +0.36; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/otex.html
EARNINGS: 5-4-06
STATUS: Double bottom. Strong volume the past week as OTEX started higher off the 50 day EMA (16.56) toward the breakout from its 11 week base. Strong 4 to 1 accumulation shows plenty of buying. OTEX is making the break from its first base formed after moving off the 2005 lows in a big sell off that started at the beginning of 2004.
Volume: 611.281K Avg Volume: 239.659K
BUY POINT: $18.05 Volume=265K Target=$21.69 Stop=$16.89
POSITION: QFT HW - Aug. $17.50c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/otex.html
Play Date: 04/26/2006
SPIL (Siliconware Precision--$7.40; +0.40; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spil.html
After Hours: $7.50
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. SPIL split in July and then rallied well to end 2005. After that move it needed a rest and the current 15 week pattern is giving it that. Good price/volume action in the pattern combined with money flow that is turning higher the past week. Great volume Wednesday as SPIL jumped higher, clearing some resistance. Looking to move in as it continues this break higher. Solid. Ready to move to a new 5 year high.
Volume: 3.136M Avg Volume: 1.899M
BUY POINT: $7.51 Volume=2.2M Target=$9.11 Stop=$6.98
POSITION: QSP IU - Sept. $7.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/spil.html
New Downside:
Play Date: 04/26/2006
AMD (Advanced Micro Devices--$32.80; -0.61; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amd.html
STATUS: Put. Taking another look at AMD now that it has rebounded close to the 50 day EMA (34.39) and looks to have run out of steam. Lower volume as it moved through the 18 day EMA (33.07), not quite making it to the 50 day before it turned over Wednesday and fell to the 10 day EMA (32.64). Looking for volume to pick up as AMD falls through the 10 day; that is where we want to move in. Money flow is in the tank, and after a modest blip higher on this rebound, it is already turning lower again. A move to the target lands us a 42%ish gain, but if it is falling hard when it hits that level we will likely let it continue.
Volume: 10.757M Avg Volume: 17.5M
BUY POINT: $32.55 Volume=18M Target=$30.75 Stop=$32.90
POSITION: AKD RZ - June $32.50p (-41 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amd.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Play Date: 04/22/2006
AL (Alcan, Inc.--$52.63; +1.01; optionable): Aluminum
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/al.html
EARNINGS: 5-2-06
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume remains above average as AL knocks at the top of its two week range that is consolidating the breakout move. Solid; just needs to show the move. To recap: AL broke out from its 8 week base to start April, rallying up the 10 day EMA. Last week it made its first test of the breakout, tapping at the 18 day EMA (50.49) on the Thursday low then rebounding Friday on stronger above average volume. Excellent 4 to 1 accumulation in the base (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume) shows plenty of buying as AL formed the base; the big money was using the consolidation to buy more shares. Strong pattern, nice breakout, solid test. Friday looked like the start of the rebound, and we are ready to move in on a continued volume move higher.
Volume: 2.058M Avg Volume: 1.82M
BUY POINT: $52.72 Volume=2M Target=$62.90 Stop=$50.55
POSITION: AL IJ - Sept. $50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/al.html
Play Date: 04/22/2006
CRED (Credo Petroleum--$25.55; -0.09; no options): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cred.html
EARNINGS: 4-20-06 (last week)
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still in the nice handle formation, holding at the 10 day EMA (25.36) on the closes, reaching down to the 18 day EMA (24.72) on the intraday lows. Nice shakeout action, setting it up for the breakout. To recap: CRED sports some of the best sales and earnings growth rates in the market, and given it is in a segment enjoying strong earnings growth thanks to higher oil, that is significant. Nice 12 week base has formed using the 50 day EMA (23.49) as support, setting up for a breakout and run to a new all-time high. One of the energy stocks that has sold back and set up a new base. Nice pattern ready to make the breakout. After this low volume test lower in the handle the sellers are gone and the breakout is coming.
Volume: 41.549K Avg Volume: 102.059K
BUY POINT: $26.78 Volume=153K Target=$32.00 Stop=$24.95
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cred.html
Play Date: 04/25/2006
CYMI (Cymer--$51.43; -0.76; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cymi.html
After Hours: $51.50
STATUS: Test breakout. CYMI is still in the breakout test, undercutting the 10 day EMA (51.52) on the low and then rebounding to hold that level on the close. Excellent shakeout; just needs to give us the move. To recap: CYMI blasted higher last week on strong volume, moving to a 5 year high on a strong earnings report. It has come back to test the move, holding above the 10 day EMA on lower but still strong volume. Looking for this market leader to make the test of the 10 day and then start back up for a continued run. That is when we will move in once more.
Volume: 1.332M Avg Volume: 989.483K
BUY POINT: $52.65 Volume=1.5M Target=$62.00 Stop=$51.22
POSITION: CQG HJ - Aug. $50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cymi.html
Play Date: 04/08/2006
MPWR (Monolithic Power Systems--$18.69; +0.19; no options): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mpwr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume has rallied the past two sessions as MPWR sets to move up off the 10 day EMA (18.31). Tried the breakout Wednesday hitting 19.22 on the high but fading to the close. Still looks ready. To recap: Nice 10 week base is setting up the breakout to a new all-time high (a new issue in November 2005). Strong volume to end March and strong volume this week as it trades in a tight range. Nice pattern and solid fundamentals as well. Just going to let it finish the pattern and make the breakout move.
Volume: 345.031K Avg Volume: 212.251K
BUY POINT: New: $18.78 (orig. $18.55) Volume=285K Target=$22.95 Stop=$17.25
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mpwr.html
Play Date: 04/25/2006
VSH (Vishay Intertechnology--$15.67; -0.39; optionable): Semiconductors and passive electronic components
EARNINGS: 5-2-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vsh.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice volume Tuesday as VSH tried the break higher, but then it faded today on lower though still above average volume. Still good lateral movement in its handle, setting up the breakout and run. Just needs to settle a bit and show us the break higher. To recap: In the mid-nineties and then in 1999 and 2000 VSH was a wild one to ride. After five years of correcting it has come off its lows and over the past 12 weeks has formed a sweet little base. Volume has climbed the past week as VSH moved higher and formed the right side of the base. Excellent 5 to 2 accumulation (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows excellent buying along with some strong money flow. Strong volume Tuesday as VSH moved up off the 10 day EMA (15.53), support in the handle. Looking for volume to continue as VSH makes the breakout move.
Volume: 1.489M Avg Volume: 1.451M
BUY POINT: $16.32 Volume=2M Target=$19.95 Stop=$15.32
POSITION: VSH JC - Oct. $15c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vsh.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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