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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: CORS; GG; WIRE
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 04/29/2006
CMC (Commercial Metals--$54.40; +2.36; optionable): Steel and iron. Splits 2:1 on 5-23-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmc.html
STATUS: Ascending base. CMC is working on a short four week base along the 18 day EMA (52.66) that is consolidating the mid-March breakout from another ascending base formed February and Marc. Some strong volume last week as CMC set up for the next leg higher in the breakout. Very solid stock that sets up some nice, compact bases that yield strong upside moves.
Volume: 940.1K Avg Volume: 788.843K
BUY POINT: $55.55 Volume=1.2M Target=$66.66 Stop=$52.44
POSITION: CMC IK - Sept. $55c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmc.html
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 04/29/2006
QLGC (Qlogic--$20.81; +0.66; optionable): Fiber channel switches
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qlgc.html
EARNINGS: 5-3-06
After Hours: $20.81
STATUS: Flat base. QLGC is heading toward the breakout form a 12 week base formed over the 50 day EMA (19.66), consolidating a strong November through January move that took QLGC off of its doormat status in 2005. It turned in a higher low the past week, holding the 18 day EMA (19.96) on low volume and then posting a solid volume move Friday. Looking for the move to continue on even stronger trade this week for us to start the play.
Volume: 2.012M Avg Volume: 2.7M
BUY POINT: $21.05 Volume=4.1M Target=$25.31 Stop=$19.88
POSITION: QLC JD - Oct. $20c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/qlgc.html
Play Date: 04/29/2006
RES (RPC, Inc.--$27.69; +1.08; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/res.html
After Hours: $28.01
STATUS: Cup w/handle. The service companies are holding up the best of the energy stocks; they are still getting business from the last storm season even as the next is just weeks away. RES split in December, and after that run it needed a breather. It set up the current nicely formed 12 week base, using last week's weakness in the sector to test back to the 10 day EMA (26.78) and form the handle to its base. This is where the last sellers leave; once they are gone the stock can deliver the breakout. Looking for volume to turn back up as it makes that move. Strong fundamentals to go with the very nicely formed pattern.
Volume: 365.2K Avg Volume: 539.784K
BUY POINT: $28.55 Volume=810K Target=$34.50 Stop=$26.55
POSITION: RES IE - Sept. $25c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/res.html
Leader Play:
Play Date: 04/27/2006
DIA (Diamonds Trust (DJ30)--$113.93; +0.16; optionable): Financial services ETF
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dia.html
After Hours: $113.93
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Not bad action Friday, just low volume as DIA tested the recent high again (114.10) but faded back modestly to close. Still solid, still ready to go. To recap: DIA broke higher late last week and has moved laterally since, holding above the 10 and 18 day EMA (113.10, 112.68). Thursday DIA gapped lower on the China news and then surged on the Bernanke news. Volume surged. Looking to move in as DIA continues higher. A move to the target lands us a 52%ish gain.
Volume: 4.11M Avg Volume: 6.76M
BUY POINT: $114.02 Volume=7.2M Target=$117.25 Stop=$112.42
POSITION: DIA GI - July $113c (60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dia.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
ANSS: Looking for an announcement with its shareholder meeting that will occur in late May or early June (date not yet set).
ASEI: Tentatively set for 5-12-06 (Just announced earnings on 2-8-06). Good recovery over the 50 day EMA, making a higher low last week. Could give us the move up this week.
CLE: Researching date.
CNQ: Forecast 5-4-06. Trying to hold at the 50 day EMA and set up a rebound
CRDN: No split on Thursday. Now testing the 50 day EMA as it continues working on its pattern.
CX: Forecast 4-28-06. Announced its split Friday.
DAKT: Looking for a possible announcement with its June 1 board meeting.
DO: Forecast for the 5-22-06 shareholder meeting.
EOG: Forecast 5-5-06
FRK: Forecast early May. Trying to set back up, rebounding off the 50 day EMA test.
GG: Researching to pinpoint the date.
GPRO: Tentatively set for 5-2-06
GRMN: Forecast 5-6-06
PCU: Forecast 4-28-06. Announced a $2.75/share dividend payable to shareholders of record on 5-16-06.
PLCE: Forecast 5-18-06 or with the shareholder meeting on 6-22-06.
PTEN: Forecast 5-3-06
RIG: Forecast 5-4-06 before the open
RIO: Forecast 5-10-06
SU: Forecast 5-4-06
TEX: Forecast late April. No split announced Friday as TEX upped its full year outlook.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/29/2006
ATK (Alliant Techsystems--$79.99; +0.36; optionable): Aerospace & defense products. Forecast 5-5-06
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 5-9-02 at $108. Before that a 3:2 split on 8-8-01 at $96.20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atk.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Might be a bit early on ATK, but with this action we are not going to quibble. Strong break higher two weeks back as ATK exploded out of an 8.5 month ascending triangle. Moves out of these patterns can be explosive and ATK rallied 7 points on the move. In last week's market chop ATK came back to test the move, filling the gap on an intraday reach lower to the 18 day EMA (79.29) on Friday. Excellent lower volume test of the breakout move out of a very nicely formed base. Looking for a volume rebound as ATK makes a price rebound as well.
Volume: 134.9K Avg Volume: 291.47K
BUY POINT: $80.28 Volume=400K Target=$92.00 Stop=$78.89
POSITION: ATK HP - Aug. $80c (52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/atk.html
Play Date: 04/29/2006
FSH (Fisher Scientific--$70.55; -0.29; optionable): Scientific research & clinical lab products. Forecast to announce a split 5-1-06 after the close.
BACKGROUND: Wildcard. No splits in FSH' history.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fsh.html
STATUS: Test breakout. FSH broke higher in mid-April, moving out of a 9 week ascending base that formed over the 50 day EMA (68.54) on the lows. Nice volume the past two weeks; not spectacular but strong each session. Very good accumulation and after this test back above the 10 day EMA (70.17), it will be ready to make the next run. Solid 4 to 1 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buying during the base. Nice test and ready to resume given all of this strong volume.
Volume: 546.1K Avg Volume: 851.756K
BUY POINT: $71.45 Volume=1.3M Target=$82.00 Stop=$69.55
POSITION: FSH IN - Sept. $70c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fsh.html
Play Date: 04/29/2006
ITG (Investment Technology--$52.99; -1.01; optionable): Investment brokerage. Forecast to potentially announce a split 5-4-06
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 11-13-01 at $64.80
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/itg.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Might be a bit early for ITG but it has put together a good run 10 months and is coming back to test the breakout form a short but nice 6 week base, setting up for the next move. ITG broke higher two weeks back on solid trade, then spent last week easing back to the 18 day EMA (52.58), using the market selling to test its move and set up for the next bounce in the breakout. Strong 3 to 0 accumulation in the short base shows all buying as ITG continues to set up then rally. Good upside volume, nice low volume pullback. Ready to move in as it rebounds off this test of near support.
Volume: 368.8K Avg Volume: 508K
BUY POINT: $54.12 Volume=625K Target=$64.00 Stop=$52.45
POSITION: ITG JK - Oct. $55c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/itg.html
Play Date: 04/29/2006
PCU (Southern Copper--$99.05; +5.38; optionable): Researching next date.
BACKGROUND: No splits in PCU's history
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcu.html
After Hours: $99.19
STATUS: Test breakout. We dropped PCU after its earnings report was below forecast, but Friday it rebounded off the 18 day EMA (94.11) on even stronger trade than the Thursday pullback. That shows the buyers were right back in the stock. With that kind of action we are not going to give up on this leader. Nice breakout from a 10 week base two weeks back, the base using the 50 day EMA (87.56) as support. The move took it to a new all-time high. After this pullback on earnings we are looking to move in on a continued volume move higher and see where this leader takes us.
Volume: 2.41M Avg Volume: 1.566M
BUY POINT: $100.11 Volume=2.2M Target=$120.00 Stop=$96.21
POSITION: PCU IT - Sept. $100c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pcu.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/22/2006
FWRD (Forward Air--$40.17; +0.21; no options): Trucking, surface transportation for air freight market. Did not announce 4-24-06 w/earnings
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 2-15-05 at $42.20. A drought before that with a 3 for 2 split on 1-11-00 in conjunction with a board meeting at a stock price of $49 and a 2:1 split on 3-1-99 at a stock price of $29.91.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fwrd.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. FWRD announced a dividend as opposed to a split with earnings. It halted, the move momentarily but then continued forming up to end last week. Really like this pattern and are looking for a breakout on strong trade this week. To recap: Nice 21 week base has set up using the 200 day SMA (36.27) as support on the lows, breaking higher late last week on a string of nice volume sessions. Excellent 8 to 2 accumulation in the base (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buying.
Volume: 233.333K Avg Volume: 259.275K
BUY POINT: $40.75 Volume=388K Target=$48.90 Stop=$38.48
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fwrd.html
Play Date: 04/25/2006
SU (Suncor Energy--$85.74; +1.51; optionable): Independent oil and gas. Forecast 5-4-06
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 4-26-02 at $36.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/su.html
After Hours: $85.76
STATUS: Test breakout. Continues to hold up despite last week's rough and tumble in the energy sector. SU used that to test its move from two weeks back, filling the gaps higher and holding the 18 day EMA (84.02) on the closes. Solid leadership type action that is setting up the next break higher. To recap: SU broke higher to start April, rallying out of a 9 week base that formed over the 50 day EMA (79.46). It has already given us a nice run and profit, but this lateral and slightly lower move to the 18 day EMA the past week is setting up another entry point for the run higher after SU catches its breath here. May take another session or two to complete the test, but we want to be ready when it makes the move.
Volume: 2.234M Avg Volume: 2.645M
BUY POINT: New: $86.35 (orig. $87.35) Volume=3.2M Target=$99.90 Stop=$84.95
POSITION: SU IR - Sept. $90c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/su.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/27/2006
ADBE (Adobe Systems--$39.20; -0.25; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adbe.html
After Hours: $39.33
STATUS: Cup w/handle. After the strong Thursday move, ADBE took Friday off on lower but still strong, above average volume. Still ready to continue the move and the day off allows it to set up and continue the run. To recap: Strong volume Thursday as ADBE breaks higher, starting the move out of its 14 week base that set up to send ADBE to a 6 year high. It reported earnings 3-22 but just kept working on the base. Solid break higher and looking to move in as it continues this move.
Volume: 7.138M Avg Volume: 4.471M
BUY POINT: $39.78 Volume=5M Target=$45.90 Stop=$37.75
POSITION: AEQ JH - Oct. $40c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/adbe.html
Play Date: 04/27/2006
NVDA (Nvidia--$29.22; +0.05; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvda.html
After Hours: $29.20
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Still working laterally over the 18 day EMA (28.84) as NVDA continues its lateral test of the strong late March run. Low volume to end the week as market volume surged; NVDA is doing its own thing, preparing for the next move. Like that. Just being patient and letting it show us the next move. To recap: NVDA gave us a nice run to end March, breaking from a 4 week lateral move along the 18 day EMA. It is setting up similarly again, moving laterally in a tight range once more. May take a bit more of a lateral move to complete setting up for the next break higher, but we like how NVDA and the semiconductors are setting up here, and it could make the move at any time.
Volume: 4.746M Avg Volume: 11.03M
BUY POINT: $30.05 Volume=14M Target=$36.00 Stop=$27.95
POSITION: UVA IF - Sept. $30c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nvda.html
Play Date: 04/26/2006
SPIL (Siliconware Precision--$7.00; -0.22; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spil.html
After Hours: $7.06
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. After a solid price and volume move Wednesday, SPIL tested back to end the week, ending up at the 18 day EMA (6.97) Friday as volume faded back. Still set up to make the move from a very nice base. It faded late in the week on word it is to restate some earnings but making no change to its primary statements. It held key support and now we see if it can make the rebound and continue its base and show us the breakout move. To recap: SPIL split in July and then rallied well to end 2005. After that move it needed a rest and the current 15 week pattern is giving it that. Good price/volume action in the pattern combined with money flow that is turning higher the past week. Great volume Wednesday as SPIL jumped higher, clearing some resistance. Looking to move in as it continues this break higher. Solid. Ready to move to a new 5 year high.
Volume: 2.379M Avg Volume: 1.907M
BUY POINT: $7.51 Volume=2.2M Target=$9.11 Stop=$6.98
POSITION: QSP IU - Sept. $7.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/spil.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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