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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: DXPE; GG; GLG; NETL; PFWD
Strong plays:
1) ABX: Nice set up as it used the market choppiness to form its handle.
2) BLKB: Ready to break to the new high.
3) HAE: Good volume as it moves higher.
4) WEBX: Strong volume as WEBX breaks higher once more.
5) DIA: Still nice.
6) EGO: Volume is moving higher as it taps at the breakout
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 04/29/2006
ABX (Barrick Gold--$30.48; +0.90; optionable): Gold
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abx.html
After Hours: $30.68
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Solid in pattern and fundamentals, something rather uncommon for a gold stock. ABX has set up a nice 12 week base, forming the handle the past two weeks over the 18 day EMA (29.50) as the market struggled with some selling. Excellent 4 to 1 accumulation in the base (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buying, setting up the next breakout and run. Very nice set up.
Volume: 4.432M Avg Volume: 4.744M
BUY POINT: $31.25 Volume=7.1M Target=$37.50 Stop=$29.45
POSITION: ABX JF - Oct. $30c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/abx.html
Play Date: 04/29/2006
BLKB (Blackbaud--$21.01; +0.52; no options): Software for non-profit organizations
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/blkb.html
After Hours: $20.98
EARNINGS: May 8
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Good breakout in February from a 12 week flat base, running higher to 21.68 on that breakout run. It needed a breather to regroup and set up for the next move, and came back to test the 50 day EMA (19.74) in April, holding that level and then getting some legs under it the last half of last week. Strong stock with solid fundamentals to go along with the strong technical pattern that puts BLKB looking for a new all-time high. Strong money flow is leading higher and BLKB looks ready to follow. Just needs some volume to take it to the next level.
Volume: 316.758K Avg Volume: 509.194K
BUY POINT: $21.25 Volume=750K Target=$25.50 Stop=$20.15
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/blkb.html
Play Date: 04/29/2006
HAE (Haemonetics--$54.50; +0.58; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hae.html
EARNINGS: May 4
STATUS: Test breakout. HAE broke higher just over a week back, moving out of a 4.5 month ascending base. Good move but in the market chop the past week could not extend it, indeed coming back to test the 18 day EMA (52.89). It found its footing there and rallied toward the end of the week. Looks ready to continue. Nice base that walked up the 50 day EMA (51.72) to set up the breakout move. Solid fundamentals support the nice technical pattern. A good sector for a more defensive market.
Volume: 290.3K Avg Volume: 252.065K
BUY POINT: $54.87 Volume=300K Target=$63.50 Stop=$52.71
POSITION: HAE IK - Sept. $55c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hae.html
Play Date: 04/29/2006
ICE (Intercontimental Exchange--$71.31; -0.29; optionable): Marketplaces for energy futures and OTC contracts
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ice.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. A new issue in November, ICE has formed its first base, a 7 week base over the 50 day EMA (62.31). Solid growth in its earnings and revenues; some of the best in the market. Nice set up and ready for a new high once more.
Volume: 953.7K Avg Volume: 1.196M
BUY POINT: $72.55 Volume=1.8M Target=$87.00 Stop=$68.25
POSITION: ICE IO - Sept. $75c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ice.html
Play Date: 04/29/2006
KONG (Kongzhong--$13.61; +0.06; optionable): Chinese wireless interactive entertainment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kong.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A new issue in mid-2004, KONG has set up a nice 16 week base just below a new all-time high. It formed the current base using the 200 day SMA (12.13) on the low as support. Positive accumulation is setting up the breakout. Nice pullback during the recent market selling has formed a low volume handle that held the 18 day EMA (13.46) support. Just going to be patient and let it show us the break higher.
Volume: 116.508K Avg Volume: 294.719K
BUY POINT: $14.35 Volume=442K Target=$17.25 Stop=$13.35
POSITION: QKR IV - Sept. $12.50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/kong.html
Play Date: 04/29/2006
WEBX (Webex Communications--$35.35; +1.76; optionable): Web collaboration services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/webx.html
After Hours: $35.30
STATUS: Test breakout. WEBX broke out from a 2 year base to start March, rallying on solid volume. It rallied to 34 and then fell sideways in a 5 week lateral test of the breakout, working laterally over the 18 day EMA (33.43) on low, below average volume. It came back to life two weeks back, jumping on strong volume, pausing again, and then surging again Friday after pulling out a strong earnings report Thursday. Strong technically and fundamentally. Closed well off its high (37) Friday, so we want to see it hold this move and then rebound we are ready.
Volume: 2.251M Avg Volume: 833.584K
BUY POINT: $35.62 Volume=850K Target=$42.75 Stop=$33.32
POSITION: UWB IG - Sept. $35c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/webx.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Play Date: 04/22/2006
AL (Alcan, Inc.--$52.26; +1.21; optionable): Aluminum
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/al.html
EARNINGS: 5-2-06
After Hours: $52.85
STATUS: Breakout test. Spent last week moving laterally over the 18 day EMA (50.73), setting up the next break higher. Hard to complain about what we are seeing; just want to see the break higher. To recap: AL broke out from its 8 week base to start April, rallying up the 10 day EMA. Excellent 4 to 1 accumulation in the base (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume) shows plenty of buying as AL formed the base; the big money was using the consolidation to buy more shares. Strong pattern, nice breakout, solid test.
Volume: 2.322M Avg Volume: 1.863M
BUY POINT: $52.72 Volume=2M Target=$62.90 Stop=$50.55
POSITION: AL IJ - Sept. $50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/al.html
Play Date: 04/27/2006
DIA (Diamonds Trust (DJ30)--$113.93; +0.16; optionable): Financial services ETF
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dia.html
After Hours: $113.93
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Not bad action Friday, just low volume as DIA tested the recent high again (114.10) but faded back modestly to close. Still solid, still ready to go. To recap: DIA broke higher late last week and has moved laterally since, holding above the 10 and 18 day EMA (113.10, 112.68). Thursday DIA gapped lower on the China news and then surged on the Bernanke news. Volume surged. Looking to move in as DIA continues higher. A move to the target lands us a 52%ish gain.
Volume: 4.11M Avg Volume: 6.76M
BUY POINT: $114.02 Volume=7.2M Target=$117.25 Stop=$112.42
POSITION: DIA GI - July $113c (60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dia.html
Play Date: 04/26/2006
EGO (El Dorado Gold--$5.24; +0.18; no options): Gold mining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ego.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice handle formation last week, using the 18 day EMA (5.01) on Thursday as support, bouncing Friday. Ready to make its move. To recap: Nice lateral handle has formed the past two weeks as EGO moves laterally over the 10 day EMA (5.11), testing lower intraday, shaking out the sellers. Once they are gone then EGO can make the breakout from its 15 week base that formed over the 50 day EMA (4.77), using that as support. Strong money flow is leading higher. Ready for a breakout to a new all-time high.
Volume: 1.052M Avg Volume: 1.215M
BUY POINT: $5.42 Volume=1.8M Target=$6.78 Stop=$5.04
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ego.html
Play Date: 04/26/2006
GLW (Corning--$27.63; -0.62; optionable): Telecom fiber, equipment.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/glw.html
After Hours: $27.64
STATUS: Breakout test. GLW slid on back to the 18 day EMA (27.54) again, unable to drive higher after tapping that level Wednesday and bouncing. Ran out of volume to end the week, prompting the continued test. Still solid and ready to move. To recap: GLW broke higher just over a week back on some solid trade but then gave the move back the past week, but holding the 18 day EMA. Nice break from a 14 week base on base pattern that used the 50 day EMA (26.49) as support. Looking for a rebound this week.
Volume: 11.353M Avg Volume: 10.366M
BUY POINT: $28.69 Volume=12M Target=$34.00 Stop=$27.32
POSITION: GLW HE - Aug. $25c (74 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/glw.html
Play Date: 04/27/2006
QUIK (Quicklogic--$6.04; -0.11; no options): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/quik.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. After the strong Thursday rebound QUIK took Friday off on lower, below average volume, holding the 10 day EMA (6.03) on the low. It held its gains and that is a good indication it is going to continue the move this week. To recap: QUIK has set up to make us some more money. A relatively unknown chip stock showing good action this year as much of the sector struggled. Nice break higher in late March from an 11 week ascending base. It made a pretty big test of the move, coming back from 6.50 to the 50 day EMA (5.56), but holding the breakout. After tapping that level on the Wednesday low, QUIK blasted higher as it reported a smaller loss than expected. Looking to step in as QUIK continues the rebound.
Volume: 243.262K Avg Volume: 254.83K
BUY POINT: $6.26 Volume=325K Target=$7.55 Stop=$5.85
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/quik.html
Play Date: 04/26/2006
SPIL (Siliconware Precision--$7.00; -0.22; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spil.html
After Hours: $7.06
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. After a solid price and volume move Wednesday, SPIL tested back to end the week, ending up at the 18 day EMA (6.97) Friday as volume faded back. Still set up to make the move from a very nice base. It faded late in the week on word it is to restate some earnings but making no change to its primary statements. It held key support and now we see if it can make the rebound and continue its base and show us the breakout move. To recap: SPIL split in July and then rallied well to end 2005. After that move it needed a rest and the current 15 week pattern is giving it that. Good price/volume action in the pattern combined with money flow that is turning higher the past week. Great volume Wednesday as SPIL jumped higher, clearing some resistance. Looking to move in as it continues this break higher. Solid. Ready to move to a new 5 year high.
Volume: 2.379M Avg Volume: 1.907M
BUY POINT: $7.51 Volume=2.2M Target=$9.11 Stop=$6.98
POSITION: QSP IU - Sept. $7.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/spil.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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