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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: AMX; ANGO; DXPE TTMI
Thursday night play results:
BBW: Tried to extend the move but lower volume and showed a doji on the day.
CNXT: Nope. Fell to the 50 day EMA intraday and though it recovered some ground it damaged its pattern
DIA: Still set to move
DXPE: Nice break higher on strong volume.
NVDA: Doji at the 10 day EMA.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 04/29/2006
BLKB (Blackbaud--$21.01; +0.52; no options): Software for non-profit organizations
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/blkb.html
After Hours: $20.98
EARNINGS: May 8
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Good breakout in February from a 12 week flat base, running higher to 21.68 on that breakout run. It needed a breather to regroup and set up for the next move, and came back to test the 50 day EMA (19.74) in April, holding that level and then getting some legs under it the last half of last week. Strong stock with solid fundamentals to go along with the strong technical pattern that puts BLKB looking for a new all-time high. Strong money flow is leading higher and BLKB looks ready to follow. Just needs some volume to take it to the next level.
Volume: 316.758K Avg Volume: 509.194K
BUY POINT: $21.25 Volume=750K Target=$25.50 Stop=$20.15
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/blkb.html
Play Date: 04/29/2006
BTUI (BTU International--$20.21; +0.94; no options): Semiconductor equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/btui.html
After Hours: $21.00
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. BTUI made us some good money on its last breakout, and after testing that move it looks ready to go again and make us some more. It sold off shparly last week, tapping at 18 on the Thursday intraday low. It rebounded from there Friday on light trade. That move tests the breakout from its 5 month base on base pattern and sets up BTUI to makes us some more money.
Volume: 192.772K Avg Volume: 285.257K
BUY POINT: $20.72 Volume=325K Target=$25.00 Stop=$19.27
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/btui.html
Play Date: 04/29/2006
DJO (DJ Orthopedics--$39.76; +0.92; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/djo.html
EARNINGS: May 4
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Another stock showing a strong breakout in February and then a nice run higher. DJO broke out from a nice 13 week base and rallied higher up the 10 day EMA (38.79), then needed a test and a rest. It held the 50 day EMA (37.30) the second week of April, bounced, then made a higher low last week, bouncing well Friday though needing more volume. Nice test, ready for a new all-time high. Again, just add volume. Good sector for a market that turned a bit defensive last week despite the kudos for the economy.
Volume: 170K Avg Volume: 286.908K
BUY POINT: $40.22 Volume=310K Target=$48.00 Stop=$37.98
POSITION: DJO IH - Sept. $40c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/djo.html
Play Date: 04/29/2006
NAK (Northern Dynasty Minerals--$7.66; +0.52; no options): Gold
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nak.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice jump higher Monday and Tuesday as NAK made the breakout from its 11 week base, moving on strong, above average volume. After that break it spent Wednesday and Thursday pulling back as the commodities weakened, but volume faded on the move and it held above the 10 day EMA (7.08), showing its strength. Friday it was right back up on strong volume, showing no ill effects. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation in the base (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buying. Strong money flow. Relative strength broke out as well, a good indication the stock move is for real. Ready to move in as NAK continues higher.
Volume: 431K Avg Volume: 248.679K
BUY POINT: $7.77 Volume=373K Target=$9.45 Stop=$7.23
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/nak.html
Play Date: 04/29/2006
QLGC (Qlogic--$20.81; +0.66; optionable): Fiber channel switches
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qlgc.html
EARNINGS: 5-3-06
After Hours: $20.81
STATUS: Flat base. QLGC is heading toward the breakout form a 12 week base formed over the 50 day EMA (19.66), consolidating a strong November through January move that took QLGC off of its doormat status in 2005. It turned in a higher low the past week, holding the 18 day EMA (19.96) on low volume and then posting a solid volume move Friday. Looking for the move to continue on even stronger trade this week for us to start the play.
Volume: 2.012M Avg Volume: 2.7M
BUY POINT: $21.05 Volume=4.1M Target=$25.31 Stop=$19.88
POSITION: QLC JD - Oct. $20c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/qlgc.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, BRCM, CELG, COH, FFIV, GME, MRVL, NVDA, PSYS, UNH
AAPL: Continues moving higher off the 50 day EMA but on below average volume. Approaching the early April high and likely to pause without strong volume to push it.
BRCM: Bounced to end the week but still below the 10 day EMA and resistance at 42. Not a good week at all for a former chip leader.
CELG: Good earnings helped push CELG higher to end the week in a nice recovery.
COH: Broke down below the 200 day SMA last week on earnings that were solid but a disappointment.
MRVL: Tapped at the 50 day EMA where there was some resistance. Bounced off 55 that acted as support in March. Needs to clear the 50 day EMA (58.32) this week.
NVDA: Still working laterally over the 18 day EMA.
PSYS: Continues working on its new base, just off the old highs at 34.
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST:
TQNT: Broke out from a 4 month trading rage to start April, moving higher up the 18 day EMA, but in a very choppy move mirroring the market's choppiness. Gapped higher Wednesday after a wild session Tuesday that saw it undercut the 50 day EMA and then rebound intraday. Strong volume Wednesday and then creeping back Thursday and Friday to test. Once it comes back to the 10 day EMA (5.29) it will likely be ready to resume the upside move.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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