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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: CMC; CX; GG; PLCE; RES; RIO; SLB; SU
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 05/02/2006
IGT (International Game Technology--$37.62; -0.07; optionable): Gaming machines
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/igt.html
STATUS: Test breakout. IGT is working through a 2 year base, the last 12 weeks a nice flat pattern over the 50 day EMA (35.91) setting up the breakout. Strong surge on strong volume as IGT reported strong results. Nice breakout and now testing that move, coming back to the 10 day EMA (37.46) Tuesday on lower, below average volume, showing a doji at that level. Nice breakout, nice test; now looking to resume the breakout on strong volume.
Volume: 1.879M Avg Volume: 2.254M
BUY POINT: $38.32 Volume=2.5M Target=$45.00 Stop=$36.87
POSITION: IGX JG - Oct. $35c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/igt.html
Play Date: 05/02/2006
TEVA (Teva Pharmaceutical--$43.49; +1.38; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/teva.html
After Hours: $43.48
STATUS: Trend reversal gap. Strong volume this week as TEVA won a battle in a continuing court fight over Zocor. The move gapped it over its down trendline formed after the December 2005 peak after a super run from the October breakout. This pullback was the next basing process after a long, strong run. It decided to skip the whole base, however, with this strong gap, a very strong signal for the stock. Ready to move in on a continued move higher and then we will look to add positions on the first test.
Volume: 10.317M Avg Volume: 4.778M
BUY POINT: $44.25 Volume=7.2M Target=$53.00 Stop=$41.95
POSITION: TVQ IV - Sept. $42.50c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/teva.html
Leader Play:
Play Date: 04/27/2006
DIA (Diamonds Trust (DJ30)--$114.10; +0.85; optionable): Financial services ETF
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dia.html
After Hours: $114.12
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Holding up well, still ready to show us a strong breakout move. Down Monday but right back up Tuesday on rising volume, tapping at the breakout. Looks just about ready. To recap: DIA broke higher late last week and has moved laterally since, holding above the 10 day EMA (113.32). Last Thursday DIA gapped lower on the China news and then surged on the Bernanke news. Volume surged. Nice tap back to feel near support to start the week and now moving back up. A move to the target lands us a 52%ish gain.
Volume: 6.042M Avg Volume: 6.798M
BUY POINT: $114.02 Volume=7.2M Target=$117.25 Stop=$112.42
POSITION: DIA GI - July $113c (60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dia.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
ANSS: Looking for an announcement with its shareholder meeting that will occur in late May or early June (date not yet set).
ASEI: Tentatively set for 5-12-06 (Just announced earnings on 2-8-06). Good recovery over the 50 day EMA, making a higher low last week. Setting up to give us the move up this week.
ATK: Forecast 5-5-06
CLE: Researching date.
CNQ: Forecast 5-4-06. Trying to hold at the 50 day EMA and set up a rebound
CX: Forecast 4-28-06. Announced its split Friday and still moving higher
DAKT: Looking for a possible announcement with its June 1 board meeting.
DO: Forecast for the 5-22-06 shareholder meeting.
EOG: Forecast 5-5-06
FRK: Forecast early May. Trying to set back up, rebounding off the 50 day EMA test.
GG: Researching to pinpoint the date.
GPRO: Tentatively set for 5-2-06. Moved higher after hours with its earnings report. No split thus far.
GRMN: Forecast 5-6-06
ITG: Forecast 5-4-06. Diving to the 50 day EMA on rising trade.
PCU: Researching the next date
PLCE: Forecast 5-18-06 or with the shareholder meeting on 6-22-06.
PTEN: Forecast 5-3-06
RIG: Forecast 5-4-06 before the open
RIO: Forecast 5-10-06
SU: Forecast 5-4-06
TEX: Forecast late April. No split announced Friday as TEX upped its full year outlook.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/02/2006
DO (Diamond Offshore--$96.15; +4.28; optionable): Oil and gas offshore drilling.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split 7-10-97 at $82.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/do.html
After Hours: $96.15
STATUS: Test breakout. Did not announce a split with earnings on 4-26-06, but strong. Go ahead and downgrade the group and see how well they move. DO moved sharply higher Tuesday on a shot of strong, above average volume. The move started to break it out of its 4 week lateral consolidation that tested the late March move from its 9 week base. Strong market leader, and looking to move in as it continues higher.
Volume: 2.934M Avg Volume: 2.748M
BUY POINT: $96.55 Volume=2.8M Target=$109.95 Stop=$92.00
POSITION: DO IS - Sept. $95c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/do.html
Play Date: 05/02/2006
POT (Potash--$100.44; +5.45; optionable): Fertilizer, feed products. Researching date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 7-21-04 at $94.80.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pot.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Announced earnings on 4-26-06. Strong volume Tuesday as POT breaks higher, clearing a nicely formed 12 week base that was part of a larger 8 month pattern. Strong volume the past week as POT set up the move, and solid as it broke higher Tuesday. Excellent 4 to 1 accumulation is setting the stage for the move, with money flow shooting higher. Ready to move in as POT continues higher.
Volume: 1.509M Avg Volume: 913.782K
BUY POINT: $101.12 Volume=1M Target=$117.50 Stop=$97.32
POSITION: POT IT - Sept. $100c (60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pot.html
New Buy Point:
Play Date: 04/05/2006
LRCX (Lam Research--$48.54; +0.20; optionable): Semiconductor equipment
BACKGROUND: Split 3:1 1-24-00 at $138.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lrcx.html
After Hours: $49.40
STATUS: Test breakout. No split announced with earnings in April, but a nice move for us nonetheless. It has moved laterally the past three sessions, waiting for the 10 day EMA (47.76) to catch up with it. Nice doji Tuesday and up after hours. Looking for it to continue the breakout move from its 12 week cup base. Nice chip leader.
Volume: 1.489M Avg Volume: 3.004M
BUY POINT: $49.50 Volume=4M Target=$60 Stop=$46.45
POSITION: LMQ IJ - Sept. $50c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lrcx.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/29/2006
ATK (Alliant Techsystems--$80.40; +0.42; optionable): Aerospace & defense products. Forecast 5-5-06
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 5-9-02 at $108. Before that a 3:2 split on 8-8-01 at $96.20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atk.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Came off the 18 day EMA test (79.47) but volume did not surge as it did. Still a solid test. Looking for it to start the move higher Wednesday on a bit better trade. To recap: Might be a bit early on ATK, but with this action we are not going to quibble. Strong break higher two weeks back as ATK exploded out of an 8.5 month ascending triangle. Moves out of these patterns can be explosive and ATK rallied 7 points on the move. In last week's market chop ATK came back to test the move, filling the gap on an intraday reach lower to the 18 day EMA last Friday. Excellent lower volume test of the breakout move out of a very nicely formed base. Looking for a volume rebound as ATK makes a price rebound as well.
Volume: 103.9K Avg Volume: 290.4K
BUY POINT: $80.28 Volume=400K Target=$92.00 Stop=$78.89
POSITION: ATK HP - Aug. $80c (52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/atk.html
Play Date: 04/22/2006
FWRD (Forward Air--$39.47; +0.10; no options): Trucking, surface transportation for air freight market. Did not announce 4-24-06 w/earnings
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 2-15-05 at $42.20. A drought before that with a 3 for 2 split on 1-11-00 in conjunction with a board meeting at a stock price of $49 and a 2:1 split on 3-1-99 at a stock price of $29.91.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fwrd.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. FWRD announced a dividend as opposed to a split with earnings. It has come back to test the 18 day EMA (39.01), showing a nice doji at that level and over the March high. Nice test and ready to rebound for the breakout. To recap: Nice 21 week base has set up using the 200 day SMA (36.36) as support on the lows, breaking higher late last week on a string of nice volume sessions. Excellent 8 to 2 accumulation in the base (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buying.
Volume: 178.5K Avg Volume: 261.34K
BUY POINT: $40.75 Volume=388K Target=$48.90 Stop=$38.48
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fwrd.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/27/2006
JCOM (J2 Global Communications--$48.52; +0.66; optionable): Value added messaging (faxing, etc.)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jcom.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice lower volume test of its late April breakout, tapping at the 10 day EMA (47.27) on the Tuesday low and rebounding for a gain. Looks just about finished with this breakout test. To recap: JCOM reported earnings 4-25 and shot higher. Strong volume breaking JCOM out of a 20 week base that set up JCOM for a new all-time high. It used the 200 day SMA (42.98) on the lows as support, a good sign of institutional support. Positive accumulation shows net buying. Strong break higher, nice lower volume test.
Volume: 370.257K Avg Volume: 614.874K
BUY POINT: New: $49.15 (orig. $48.45) Volume=800K Target=$56.00 Stop=$46.11
POSITION: JQF II - Sept. $45c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jcom.html
Play Date: 04/26/2006
SPIL (Siliconware Precision--$7.21; +0.16; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spil.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Could not keep the move from last week going, fading back the past few sessions to once gain test the 18 day EMA (7.00). Gapped higher Tuesday on a bit higher volume. Just waiting for it to show us the break higher. To recap: After a solid price and volume move Wednesday, SPIL tested back to the 18 day EMA as volume faded back. Still set up to make the move from a very nice base. It faded late in the week on word it is to restate some earnings but making no change to its primary statements. It held key support and now we see if it can make the rebound and continue its base and show us the breakout move. SPIL split in July and then rallied well to end 2005. After that move it needed a rest and the current 15 week pattern is giving it that. Good price/volume action in the pattern combined with money flow that is turning higher the past week. Ready to move to a new 5 year high.
Volume: 1.444M Avg Volume: 1.913M
BUY POINT: $7.51 Volume=2.2M Target=$9.11 Stop=$6.98
POSITION: QSP IU - Sept. $7.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/spil.html
Play Date: 04/22/2006
VIP (Vimple Communication--$46.59; -0.09; optionable): Russian wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vip.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Has faded the past week to the 10 day EMA (46.37), holding that level the past two sessions, showing a doji Tuesday as volume moved back up toward average. This has turned into a really nice base, forming that handle as we thought might happen. Rising volume indicates that VIP may be ready for the breakout. Want to see stronger trade as it does, but it is set up well. To recap: VIP was a big money maker for us in 2003 and 2004, but after those big runs it was overbought and needed a consolidation. It spent 2005 doing that, though it ended that year with a nice but volatile uptrend. It started 2006 testing that move, forming the current 13 week double bottom over the 200 day SMA (43.35), using that key level as support. The institutions either get on board with a stock at the 200 day or move on; here they were buying shares as the 3 to 1 accumulation also shows (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume). Reported earnings 4-18 and rose on solid trade.
Volume: 814.3K Avg Volume: 816.25K
BUY POINT: $47.55 Volume=1.2M Target=$55.00 Stop=$45.55
POSITION: VIP JI - Oct. $45c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vip.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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