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yahoo stock, trade stock
Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information. A "prior high" refers to the high at the start of a base.
For conserving space on listings of stop losses, the symbol (7%) indicates that the stop is 7% below the buy point.
Good movers: Not a ton today. PENN added to its breakout, but showed a doji on higher volume; it hit in the range of the 5% limit on breakouts on the intraday high.
Stocks/Indexes from Tuesday's report:
MRVC (subscriber's choice): Lower volume and a close just above the 10 day MVA.
HTLD: Selling took the stock down, closer to the 18 day MVA (27.62). Would like it to hold there to keep the handle intact.
TIER: Looked good today, though volume was lower on the slight gain. This stock is ready to head back up.
QCOM: Dropped back through the short term moving averages and the 200 day. Volume remained low and was just down.
VRSN: Held above the up trendline, and the intraday low did not tap down as far as that support. Will look for a hold in this range for the move up in a positive market (aggressive play).
IGT: Broke the 10 day MVA and closed just above the 18 day MVA, which it tapped on the low of 59.20. Volume was up. We want IGT to hold here to retain the handle.
TARO: Headed down to 35 (on the low) for the covered call play. Can continue to the 200 day MVA (target) if 35 does not hold.
Previous plays:
CPWR: The descending wedge pattern. Today's action pushed price below the 50 day MVA, but volume was lower and the stock showed a tight doji. We will see if it breaks the lower 18 day MVA.
EMLX: Pulled back from Tuesday's nice move, and on the stronger volume can move down to the 200 day MVA (27.50 range).
JNPR: Ouch. Sold below the 18 day MVA. Can hold 24, a level that shows a string of prices since July, but volume will need to drop off quickly.
MCHP: Dropped back to the 18 day MVA on the low, but bounced; still, it did not close above the 10 day MVA. Trying to break out of a cup base.
NVLS: Another pullback, but this doji formed on falling volume. Can still test the 10 day MVA (38.36).
PSSI: Was looking more promising lately, but sold off today, breaking below its 50 day MVA.
QLGC: Retraced Tuesday's strong move up, but held the 10 day MVA. Volume still strong though falling.
SUBSCRIBER'S CHOICE:
YHOO (Yahoo!--$16.21; -1.19; optionable): Internet Information Provider
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/y/yhoo.html
STATUS: Off its highs at 250, YHOO is very deep in its 2-year base, but off the lows at 8 (another massive drop). The stock has a good run up from those lows in September, and on Monday broke out over its 200 day MVA (16.53) on big volume. That was bullish, and though the stock has pulled back under that moving average, volume is decreasing (down to 12.8 million today; avg. 9.7 million), so look for a possible hold at the 16 level, or the 10 day MVA (15.82 range). The lower volume suggests it may be able to do so, and on a strong move back over the high at 18.09, positions can be considered. YHOO shows strong money flow.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/yhoo.html
Best Plays:
1) CATT: A nice, tight lateral consolidation.
2) EAT: Tight doji on low volume.
3) NVDA: Being added to the S&P500 Thursday after the bell.
New:
CATT (Catapult Communications--$24.19; +0.13; no options): Business Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/catt.html
STATUS: This stock is in a descending lateral pattern which could almost be called the handle to CATT's 6-month cup, but it is just under mid-point in the base. Thus, it is not a great handle since it is just a bit low. However, the pattern looks good, with today's low tapping near support at the 10 day MVA (23.61) and volume dropping back well below average to 42,800 (avg. 99,272). CATT just recently held a breakout over the 200 day MVA (at the 22.50 range), and is looking ready to make a move up over that breakout high of 25.53. Showing good money flow and buying. Target: 31
BUY POINT: Breakout: 25.66 on volume in the range of 135,000 or higher. Stop: 23.86 (7%)
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/catt.html
Update:
OCLR (Ocular Sciences--$25.51; +0.09; optionable): Health Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oclr.html
STATUS: OCLR broke out from a cup with handle (5 months) last week and has been testing the breakout, today down to 25, support above which it has held after tapping lower the previous 2 sessions (Tuesday the stock hit the 10 day MVA on the low then bounced back up to close the day). Today OCLR opened above the support and tried to move over 26 (the breakout high is 26.80), but lower volume inhibited the move and the stock pulled back down, still closing slightly higher. Not bad action for a down session. We will look for a hold at this support for a strong move back over the high after the successful test of the breakout. OCLR on this pullback is actually forming a new handle, since it did not hold the breakout over the previous high on the left side of the base at 26.94. Volume was 161,400 (avg. 113,090). Excellent money flow, and relative strength is breaking out ahead of price, a bullish indicator. Target: 32
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 26.21 on rising volume. Stop: 24.38 (7%). Breakout: 26.90 on volume of 155,000 or higher.
POSITION: Stock and/or January $22.50 calls to buy (QLO AX).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/oclr.html
EAT (Brinker International--$27.72; -0.14; optionable): Restaurant chain
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eat.html
STATUS: EAT still looks good in its cup base, pulling back the last 2 days on decreasing volume in a new handle-type formation which is off Monday's high of 28.65. The stock made the buy point over the previous handle high at 28.13 last week, but could not pull in the volume for a strong breakout (today's volume was 387,500; avg. 810,181). Showing a tight doji on a tap of the 18 day MVA (27.40) Wednesday, the stock is looking ready to make another move up. Hopefully that will be a breakout; we will look at taking positions on a strong move over the high. Excellent money flow and buying! Target: 35
BUY POINT: Breakout: 28.78 on volume of 1.2 million or higher. Stop: 26.77 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or January $25 calls to buy (EAT AE; low open interests).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/eat.html
PORTFOLIOS: Each report, we look at these to see which is in a buy position. We don't cover them all each time, just the ones that look ready to pick up a few shares.
THE LEADERS: New Leaders (new list): ACS, NVDA, DGX, FRX, LLL, CACI, AJG, KRON, MIKE, BMET, APPB, LOW, IDPH, TARO, MYL, IGT, VRSN
NVDA (Nvidia--$51.36; -2.73; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvda.html
STATUS: NVDA pulled back in regular trading, breaking the 10 day MVA but on lower volume (6.8 million; avg. 8.5 million). It was looking controlled on the pullback and we were looking for a hold at the 18 day MVA (50.43) for a bounce back up in what is almost shaping up to be an ascending wedge (highs just over 55; November high is 55.99). Then after hours news was out that the stock would replace ENE in the S&P 500. We will look at picking up some shares on a move up; the stock was trading up to $55 after hours. That means it could gap higher on the open, so we will look for a pullback to test the opening price, then look at getting in on a move up from there. We will also look at taking more positions on Thursday, when the stock is scheduled for addition to the index. Institutions will jump in at that point, and that can drive price up, action we'd like to ride. High money flow. Target: 72, but this is a keeper.
BUY POINT: A test of the gap in the morning. Breakout: over 56 on volume of 11 million or higher.
POSITION: Stock and/or January $50 calls to buy (RVU AJ).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/nvda.html
IDPH: Selling back to the 18 day MVA (66). Want to see it hold there.
AJG: Has crept up from the 50 day MVA (just above 34) over the last few days, and volume is climbing, though still below average. The stock was higher, but has overhead supply to take out up to 38. It looks ready to rise, however, if it can get volume going.
KRON: Trying to break out over upper resistance; volume was sharply higher today but the stock pulled off its high. KRON is testing its recent breakout though it dipped back to the 10 day MVA a week ago.
UP & COMERS PORTFOLIOS: Here is the new portfolio list: BBBY, EPIQ, KKD, MMS, NDN, SRCL, CPRT, BJ, EBAY, THQI, KG.
BBBY: Is pulling back on decreasing volume off the breakout high of 33.73. Can hold support at 32 for a move back up (testing breakout from the cup with handle).
THQI: Sold back to the 50 day MVA on rising volume in the handle. Volume remains well below average, so may be able to hold the support.
EBAY: Tried to pull off a breakout move with higher volume (above average), stretching to 67.56 but losing the effort. Pulled back to 65, still positive for the close.
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: New portfolio as selected by the subscribers. Some of these stocks are still struggling to move higher in their bases, and will likely continue to trade in close ranges just like the market. We'll be ready to catch them when they are ready to move. The new list: BRCM, CHKP, AMAT, JNJ, MSFT, AOL, HGSI, BUD, PXLW.
Old members: BRCM, CHKP, CSCO, EMLX, IDTI, INTC, JDSU, MVSN, NT, PWER, SUNW, VTSS
AMAT: After a nice move up Tuesday, AMAT retraced today, but at least the move was on lower, below average volume (potential support is at 40, tapped on the intraday low).
AOL: Slid below the 50 day MVA even with volume lower. Look for a quick move back over the support level.
BRCM: Volume was lower (still well above average) with BRCM pulling back to the 10 day MVA, from which it bounced slightly. Look for lower support at the 45 range (18 day MVA is at 44.19).
CHKP: Holding a cent above its 18 day MVA with volume high and rising. If it cannot hold here, look for support at the 50 day MVA (35 range) in the handle.
HGSI: Lost the wedge-type pattern, but may be able to hold support at the 50 day MVA, just above where price closed.
PXLW: Finally pulling back, but it took a day like today to initiate the move.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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