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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: CTSH; CTXS; CYMI; DXPE; MFLX
Strong plays:
1) AEIS: Nice volume as it heads toward the breakout.
2) NGPS: Solid breakout from a long-term base.
3) LM: Ready to roll back over.
4) BLKB: Looks ready to move.
5) GLW: The test looks about over
6) OIS: Held up well in the energy weakness. Right at the breakout point.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 05/03/2006
AEIS (Advanced Energy--$16.07; +0.97; optionable): Power supplies, RF instrumentation, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aeis.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Strong earnings in late April jumped volume as AEIS hung onto its base. It faded this week to the 50 day EMA (14.78), completing its handle. Volume surged Wednesday as AEIS jumped higher off that support, ready to show us the breakout from its 12 week base sporting excellent 4 to 1 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume). Strong money flow. Looking for more strong volume as AEIS continues higher and shows us the breakout.
Volume: 1.122M Avg Volume: 613K
BUY POINT: $16.32 Volume=800K Target=$19.58 Stop=$15.18
POSITION: OEQ JC - Oct. $15c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/aeis.html
Play Date: 05/03/2006
NGPS (Novatel--$37.99; +3.12; optionable): High-precision global positioning systems and components
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ngps.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle breakout. Reported strong earnings Tuesday and surged Wednesday, breaking out from its 9.5 month base that formed making higher and higher lows along the 50 day EMA (34.80). NGPS was not the only one reporting strong GPS earnings; GRMN as well. Excellent 12 to 5 accumulation (12 up price weeks on rising volume to 5 down price weeks on rising volume) shows lots of buying as the base formed. May show a bit of softness Thursday morning; it traded off the high (39.20) to close, and a bit of a pullback after such a strong move is not unusual. After a weaker start, looking to move in as NGPS rebounds.
Volume: 602.414K Avg Volume: 121.237K
BUY POINT: From Wednesday close: $38.25. If it tests 37.29, 37.65 on the rebound. Volume=200K Target=$45.00 Stop=$35.68
POSITION: QAZ IG - Sept. $35c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ngps.html
Play Date: 05/03/2006
SOX (Philly Semiconductor Index--$520.06; +6.35; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/^sox.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. SOX is making a higher low at the 50 day EMA (513.71), working on a 13 week base that started in late January. Double bottomed in March, made a higher low in mid-April, and now making another at the 50 day. Ready to move in as it continues its move. Aggressive play but lots of semis showing better action.
BUY POINT: $520.65 Target=$550.00 Stop=$513.50
POSITION: SJX FD - June $520c (54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sox.html
Downside:
Play Date: 05/03/2006
CHRW (C.H. Robinson Worldwide--$46.09; -0.21; optionable): Air delivery and freight
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chrw.html
After Hours: $46.09
STATUS: Put. After a breakout in February and a strong run to 53, CHRW ran out of gas so to speak. It was testing normally, and then crashed through the 50 day EMA (46.79) a week back, falling on high volume. It caught itself near some support at 45 and rebounded, but volume trailed off as it did. Wednesday it showed a doji just below the 50 day; the low volume bounce indicates further selling is ahead. Looking for CHRW to turn back over. A move to the target lands us a 44%ish gain.
Volume: 764.895K Avg Volume: 1.148M
BUY POINT: $45.94 Volume=1.3M Target=$43.95 Stop=$46.80
POSITION: CJQ RI - June $45p (-35 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/chrw.html
Play Date: 05/03/2006
LM (Legg Mason--$114.82; -1.48; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lm.html
STATUS: Put. LM was working on a 9 week base through late April, coming down for a double bottom over the 200 day SMA (117.99), but didn't know when to stop and put in the second bottom. It plunged through the 200 day on Monday and made a half-hearted rebound effort Tuesday. Wednesday it turned lower again though volume trailed off to below average. Looking for it to continue lower back toward the recent low at 110. A move to the target lands us a 44%ish gain.
Volume: 1.291M Avg Volume: 1.392M
BUY POINT: $114.57 Volume=1.4M Target=$110.00 Stop=$116.32
POSITION: LM RC - June $115p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lm.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Play Date: 04/29/2006
BLKB (Blackbaud--$21.04; +0.25; no options): Software for non-profit organizations
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/blkb.html
EARNINGS: May 8
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Reached down to the 18 day EMA (20.52) on the low and rebounding for a gain Wednesday, a nice shakeout that helps set the move higher. No volume, however, so BLKB was not ready to make the next break higher. It is looking good; just needs to show the volume as it makes the break higher. To recap: Good breakout in February from a 12 week flat base, running higher to 21.68 on that breakout run. It needed a breather to regroup and set up for the next move, and came back to test the 50 day EMA (19.87) in April, holding that level and then getting some legs under it the last half of last week. Strong stock with solid fundamentals to go along with the strong technical pattern that puts BLKB looking for a new all-time high. Strong money flow is leading higher and BLKB looks ready to follow. Just needs some volume to take it to the next level.
Volume: 213.089K Avg Volume: 504.345K
BUY POINT: $21.25 Volume=750K Target=$25.50 Stop=$20.15
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/blkb.html
Play Date: 04/27/2006
DIA (Diamonds Trust (DJ30)--$113.96; -0.19; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dia.html
After Hours: $113.99
STATUS: Test breakout. Bunching up at 114, moving laterally below that level on lower, below average volume as the 10 day EMA (113.44) rises below. Building pressure from below for a continued breakout move. Showed a strong volume spike last week on the Bernanke speech, stalling a bit after his retraction. That did nothing to wreck the pattern, however. Just biding its time, setting up for the next run higher.
Volume: 4.72M Avg Volume: 6.781M
BUY POINT: $114.02 Volume=7.2M Target=$117.25 Stop=$112.42
POSITION: DIA GI - July $113c (60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dia.html
Play Date: 04/26/2006
GLW (Corning--$28.11; +0.31; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/glw.html
After Hours: $27.93
STATUS: Breakout test. Still the nice test of the 18 day EMA (27.63), starting to bounce Wednesday but volume, though up, was still well below average. Nice test of the 18 day after the mid-March breakout and looks ready to bounce. One of the telecom leaders that led the resurgence, and looks ready to continue.
Volume: 6.691M Avg Volume: 10.249M
BUY POINT: $28.25 Volume=12M Target=$34.00 Stop=$27.22
POSITION: GLW HE - Aug. $25c (74 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/glw.html
Play Date: 04/29/2006
HAE (Haemonetics--$54.20; +0.81; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hae.html
EARNINGS: May 4
STATUS: Test breakout. After another quick test of the 18 day EMA (53.20) HAE looks ready to rebound and continue the breakout move. Got a bit dicey, but nice recovery. Now just needs to show us a continued storng upside move. To recap: HAE broke higher just over a week back, moving out of a 4.5 month ascending base. Good move but in the market chop the past week could not extend it, indeed coming back to test the 18 day EMA (53.20). It found its footing there and rallied toward the end of the week. Looks ready to continue. Nice base that walked up the 50 day EMA (51.98) to set up the breakout move. Solid fundamentals support the nice technical pattern. A good sector for a more defensive market.
Volume: 323.2K Avg Volume: 225.252K
BUY POINT: $54.87 Volume=300K Target=$63.50 Stop=$52.71
POSITION: HAE IK - Sept. $55c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hae.html
Play Date: 05/01/2006
HLTH (Webmd Corp.--$11.69; +0.02; optionable): Healthcare information service
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hlth.html
After Hours: $11.70
STATUS: Test breakout. Solid trade Wednesday as HLTH tried to make the move higher but then faded to flat. Still very solid, still looks ready. To recap: Announced strong earnings mid-April and surged higher on strong volume, making the breakout from its 6.5 month cup with handle base. Excellent 8 to 2 accumulation (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows strong buying in the base. Ready to break to a new 5 year high. Volume was up Monday, back above average as HLTH came off the 18 day EMA (11.32) after breaking out from the base and a nice, quick test. Ready to move in as it continues higher.
Volume: 3.128M Avg Volume: 2.592M
BUY POINT: $11.98 Volume=3.5M Target=$14.38 Stop=$11.22
POSITION: HUT JB - Oct. $10c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hlth.html
Play Date: 05/01/2006
OIS (Oil States Int.--$41.45; -0.62; optionable): Oil & gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/ois.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Energy was a bit shaky Wednesday, but OIS held up well, testing the 10 day EMA (40.71) on the low and rebounding for a modest loss. Still right at the breakout point. To recap: OIS is looking for an all-time high with a breakout from the current 14 week base that formed using the 200 day SMA (34.61) on the lows as support. That is where the institutions either step in or step out; they were stepping in here, bouncing OIS back up. It formed the handle the past two weeks, holding the 18 day EMA on the lows. Volume has started to pick up the past week and was up Monday as OIS tested toward the breakout. Positive 4:3 accumulation in the base shows net buying, setting up the breakout. Looking for a good surge as OIS moves through the buy point.
Volume: 647.7K Avg Volume: 773.506K
BUY POINT: $42.05 Volume=1.2M Target=$49.95 Stop=$39.88
POSITION: OIS IH - Sept. $40c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ois.html
DOWNSIDE:
Play Date: 05/02/2006
AB (Alliance Bernstein Holding--$65.09; -0.04; optionable): Asset Management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ab.html
STATUS: Double top. Volume fell back below average and an early move lower rebounded modestly. Still below the 50 day EMA (66.09), still ready to fall. To recap: AB peaked in mid-April and rolled sharply lower to end the month, falling through the 50 day EMA Friday on strong trade. It rebounded Monday to the 50 day EMA as volume backed off and then fell again Tuesday as trade picked back up. Money flow is heading lower and AB has been under distribution the past week. Looking to move in as it continues lower. A move to the target lands us a 44%ish gain.
Volume: 152.4K Avg Volume: 203.203K
BUY POINT: $64.92 Volume=235K Target=$62.88 Stop=$65.45
POSITION: AB RM - June $65p (-48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ab.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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