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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: CTSX; DIA; JOBS; PLLL; RIO; RMD; SBUX; TESOF
Thursday night play results:
ISIL: Took a pause on low volume but still ready to roll.
JOBS: Volume up as it moved higher. Late trade took it lower. Good shape.
MCHP: Big doji on lower volume. Still looks super.
SBUX: Continuing the move on solid, above average volume.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/06/2006
GRP (Grant Prideco--$52.62; +0.14; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/grp.html
Earnings: Announced 4-19-05
STATUS: Breakout test. GRP shot higher on its strong earnings, breaking out from its 11 week cup base that used the 200 day SMA (41.19) on the lows as support. It struggled at the end of the month along with many of the energy stocks, but it held and rebounded smartly back to the April high at 54. Spent the last half of last week testing, coming back to the 10 day EMA (51.94). This is holding the breakout and keeps GRP above the highs in the base from February. Just being patient and letting GRP show us the next break higher. Very good fundamentals to go along with the solid pattern that is ready to take GRP to a new all-time high.
Volume: 1.24M Avg Volume: 2.239M
BUY POINT: $54.05 Volume=3.4M Target=$64.89 Stop=$51.62
POSITION: GRP JK - Oct. $55c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/grp.html
Play Date: 05/06/2006
HELX (Helix Technology--$42.91; +1.52; optionable): Oil & gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/helx.html
After Hours: $42.86
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Strong volume to end the week as HELX starts the breakout move from its 15 week base formed using the 50 day EMA (38.54) as support. This is setting HELX up for a new high. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation shows plenty of buying, setting up the breakout move to come. Like that volume as it tested down to the 18 day EMA (39.93) and then rebounded. Solid fundamentals to go along with the pattern.
Volume: 2.288M Avg Volume: 1.212M
BUY POINT: $43.89 Volume=1.6M Target=$52.50 Stop=$41.75
POSITION: KPQ IH - Sept. $40c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/helx.html
Play Date: 05/06/2006
LCAV (LCA-Vision--$56.41; +0.01; optionable): Laser vision centers
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 11-17-04 at $32.20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lcav.html
STATUS: Test breakout. LCAV gapped higher two weeks back on very strong volume, rallying on strong earnings results. That move took it out of an 11 week cup base in one quick move. It has spent the past two weeks testing, a lateral move with a slight fade toward the 10 day EMA (55.27) on low, below average volume. Positive accumulation in the base shows net buying as LCAV sets up for a new all-time high with a continuation of its breakout move. Friday it showed a nice doji on the candlestick chart, potentially indicating the move high is going to continue. Very nice.
Volume: 435.113K Avg Volume: 716.171K
BUY POINT: $57.98 Volume=1.1M Target=$69.50 Stop=$55.00
POSITION: JVQ IL - Sept. $60c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/lcav.html
Play Date: 05/06/2006
LUK (Leucadia National--$62.08; +1.22; optionable): Holding company for manufacturing, healthcare, telecom, real estate, wineries, etc.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 12-8-04 at $64.70.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/luk.html
STATUS: Ascending base. After a breakout from a year long base in January, LUK ran higher up the 18 day EMA (60.73); great breakout move. It peaked just below 62 in early April and began a 5 week lateral move, testing the breakout run but refusing to give up any ground. Very strong stock. Friday LUK started to break higher from the consolidation. Volume was not there yet, however, so we are looking for stronger trade to kick in this week as it continues the move.
Volume: 165.9K Avg Volume: 332.486K
BUY POINT: $62.22 Volume=375K Target=$74.00 Stop=$60.72
POSITION: LUK IL - Sept. $60c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/luk.html
Play Date: 05/06/2006
WSM (Williams Sonoma--$44.01; +0.86; optionable): Specialty retail (cookware, cutlery, etc.)
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 4-17-02 at 47.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wsm.html
EARNINGS: 3-20-06
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout. Solid earnings in March jumped WSM higher in its base. Then it moved into a lateral 7 week base over the 50 day EMA (41.86), gapping higher Friday on stronger, above average volume. It is setting up for a breakout to a new all-time high. Excellent 6 to 2 accumulation is setting the stage for the move (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume), showing a lot of buyers versus sellers. This base is part of a larger 10 month triangle. Good volume move higher Friday, and looking to move in on a further break higher on this breakout move.
Volume: 720.9K Avg Volume: 621.549K
BUY POINT: $44.32 Volume=900K Target=$51.00 Stop=$43.89
POSITION: WSM HV - Aug. $42.50c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wsm.html
Continuing plays ready to move:
Play Date: 04/29/2006
BLKB (Blackbaud--$21.29; +0.26; no options): Software for non-profit organizations
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/blkb.html
EARNINGS: May 8
STATUS: Test breakout. Volume moved higher but was still below average Friday as BLKB moved toward the March high (21.68) hit after the late February breakout. Looks ready to make the move to the new high. To recap: Good breakout in February from a 12 week flat base, running higher to 21.68 on that breakout run. It needed a breather to regroup and set up for the next move, and came back to test the 50 day EMA (19.97) in April, holding that level and then getting some legs under it to end the week. Strong stock with solid fundamentals to go along with the strong technical pattern that puts BLKB looking for a new all-time high. Strong money flow is leading higher and BLKB looks ready to follow. Just needs some volume to take it to the next level.
Volume: 408.885K Avg Volume: 503.402K
BUY POINT: New: $21.42 (orig. $21.25) Volume=750K Target=$25.50 Stop=$20.15
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/blkb.html
Play Date: 05/02/2006
DO (Diamond Offshore--$94.90; -0.10; optionable): Oil and gas offshore drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/do.html
After Hours: $95.05
STATUS: Test breakout. Still working laterally over the 18 day EMA (92.86) the past 5 weeks as it tests the late March breakout. Volume surged Friday as DO tapped at the breakout and faded a hair. Looks ready to make its move this week. To recap: Broke out from a nice 9 week range in late April, surging on strong volume. It moved to 95 and started to move laterally once more, setting the groundwork for the next move. Like the high volume Friday as DO narrows its range and taps at the breakout point. Strong market leader, and looking to move in as it continues higher.
Volume: 3.419M Avg Volume: 2.724M
BUY POINT: $96.55 Volume=2.8M Target=$109.95 Stop=$92.00
POSITION: DO IS - Sept. $95c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/do.html
Play Date: 05/04/2006
MCHP (Microchip--$37.95; +0.01; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mchp.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Good move Thursday but Friday the chips took the day off, resting before making the next move. That leaves MCHP in great shape and ready for a new all-time high this week. To recap: MCHP made a few attempts at breaking out in April, but in the market chop it just couldn't quite make the real breakaway move; it would start, but then fade. Nice 14 week base formed above the 50 day EMA (36.41), consolidating and setting up for a new all-time high. Made a higher low at that level the past week and jumped higher this week. Solid move last Thursday on rising almost average volume. Money flow is leading higher as MCHP readies for the new all-time high. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation in the base. Looks nice and looks ready.
Volume: 1.193M Avg Volume: 1.573M
BUY POINT: $38.64 Volume=2.4M Target=$45.00 Stop=$37.00
POSITION: QMT JG - Oct. $35c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mchp.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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