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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ABX; CTXS; ICC; PLLL
Strong plays:
1) AGU: Starting a high volume breakout.
2) GRP: Nice breakout test.
3) TSM: Making the break higher on strong volume.
4) BLKB: Looks ready to start the move.
5) HLTH: Good volume persists.
6) MCHP: Sweet pattern.
7) NGPS: Nice test. Now it is ready to continue.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 05/06/2006
AGU (Agrium--$27.14; +1.56; optionable): Agricultural chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/agu.html
EARNINGS: 5-5-06
STATUS: Ascending base breakout. Strong move higher on huge volume Friday as AGU broke out from its 12 week ascending base that formed using the 50 day EMA (25.18) as support. This is a nice base on base pattern, the second base after a nice 6 month cup with handle. The two bases tend to really shake out the sellers. Positive accumulation and surging money flow go hand in hand. Relative strength broke out on Friday as well, a good corroboration of the price move. Looking to start the position as AGU continues higher and then add to positions as it makes its first test and holds. Solid stock.
Volume: 3.241M Avg Volume: 666.611K
BUY POINT: $27.25 Volume=750K Target=$32.50 Stop=$25.38
POSITION: AGU JE - Oct. $25c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/agu.html
Play Date: 05/06/2006
GRP (Grant Prideco--$52.62; +0.14; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/grp.html
Earnings: Announced 4-19-05
STATUS: Breakout test. GRP shot higher on its strong earnings, breaking out from its 11 week cup base that used the 200 day SMA (41.19) on the lows as support. It struggled at the end of the month along with many of the energy stocks, but it held and rebounded smartly back to the April high at 54. Spent the last half of last week testing, coming back to the 10 day EMA (51.94). This is holding the breakout and keeps GRP above the highs in the base from February. Just being patient and letting GRP show us the next break higher. Very good fundamentals to go along with the solid pattern that is ready to take GRP to a new all-time high.
Volume: 1.24M Avg Volume: 2.239M
BUY POINT: $54.05 Volume=3.4M Target=$64.89 Stop=$51.62
POSITION: GRP JK - Oct. $55c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/grp.html
Play Date: 05/06/2006
TEK (Tektronix--$36.18; -0.08; optionable): Test, measurement and monitoring devices.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split at $73 on 9-21-00. Before that a 3:2 split at $67 on 9-24-97.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tek.html
STATUS: Flat base. TEK is moving in a 7 week lateral base that is using the 18 day EMA (35.52) as support. Strong gap higher in mid-March on its earnings release and this test refuses to give up any of the gains, always a good sign. Excellent 3 to 0 accumulation in the lateral move (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume) shows excellent buying; that means a breakout is coming.
Volume: 283.7K Avg Volume: 524.692K
BUY POINT: $36.88 Volume=787K Target=$44.00 Stop=$35.32
POSITION: TEK JG - Oct. $35c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tek.html
Play Date: 05/06/2006
TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor--$11.26; +0.31; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tsm.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders breakout. Nice volume Friday as TSM cleared a 17 week base formed this year. Excellent volume surge to end April as TSM tested the 18 day EMA (10.65) on the low and formed the right shoulder to the base. Ready to move in as TSM continues higher and then again as it tests the breakout move, holds, and starts back up. Solid move, leading the sector higher.
Volume: 13.278M Avg Volume: 8.781M
BUY POINT: $11.37 Volume=9M Target=$13.65 Stop=$10.65
POSITION: TSM JB - Oct. $10c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tsm.html
Play Date: 05/06/2006
VARI (Varian--$43.46; +0.35; optionable): Chromatography, optical spectroscopy, superconducting magnets, and other equipment.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vari.html
After Hours: $43.29
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Solid break higher to end April on strong earnings, then a lateral move the past two weeks, waiting for the 10 day EMA (42.54) to catch up with it. It did that Friday, and after a reach lower to that level it rebounded and looks ready to resume its move. Nice 6 month base that formed using the 200 day SMA (38.86) as support. This base is part of a larger 2.25 year base, really weeding out the sellers. Strong money flow is running higher. Looking for volume to move higher as it continues the breakout move this week.
Volume: 134.516K Avg Volume: 176.113K
BUY POINT: $43.89 Volume=264K Target=$52.65 Stop=$42.25
POSITION: IUA HI - Aug. $45c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vari.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Play Date: 04/29/2006
BLKB (Blackbaud--$21.29; +0.26; no options): Software for non-profit organizations
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/blkb.html
EARNINGS: May 8
STATUS: Test breakout. Volume moved higher but was still below average Friday as BLKB moved toward the March high (21.68) hit after the late February breakout. Looks ready to make the move to the new high. To recap: Good breakout in February from a 12 week flat base, running higher to 21.68 on that breakout run. It needed a breather to regroup and set up for the next move, and came back to test the 50 day EMA (19.97) in April, holding that level and then getting some legs under it to end the week. Strong stock with solid fundamentals to go along with the strong technical pattern that puts BLKB looking for a new all-time high. Strong money flow is leading higher and BLKB looks ready to follow. Just needs some volume to take it to the next level.
Volume: 408.885K Avg Volume: 503.402K
BUY POINT: New: $21.42 (orig. $21.25) Volume=750K Target=$25.50 Stop=$20.15
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/blkb.html
Play Date: 04/26/2006
GLW (Corning--$28.24; -0.20; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/glw.html
After Hours: $28.20
STATUS: Breakout test. Gapped higher but faded to the close for a small loss. Still holding the 10 day EMA (28.00) in this test of the late April break higher. Being patient and letting GLW finish the test and then rebound on stronger trade once again. To recap: Still the nice test of the 18 day EMA (27.77) after the mid-March breakout. One of the telecom leaders that led the resurgence, and looks ready to continue.
Volume: 5.05M Avg Volume: 10.029M
BUY POINT: New: $28.39 (orig. $28.25) Volume=12M Target=$34.00 Stop=$27.22
POSITION: GLW HE - Aug. $25c (74 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/glw.html
Play Date: 05/01/2006
HLTH (Webmd Corp.--$11.62; +0.24; optionable): Healthcare information service
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hlth.html
After Hours: $11.59
STATUS: Test breakout. Volume bounced back above average Friday as HLTH tapped the 18 day EMA (11.36) on the low and rebounded for a gain. Good action, shaking out the last sellers. To recap: Announced strong earnings mid-April and surged higher on strong volume, making the breakout from its 6.5 month cup with handle base. Excellent 8 to 2 accumulation (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows strong buying in the base. Ready to break to a new 5 year high. Volume started to return last week. Ready to move in as it continues higher.
Volume: 3.215M Avg Volume: 2.622M
BUY POINT: $11.98 Volume=3.5M Target=$14.38 Stop=$11.22
POSITION: HUT JB - Oct. $10c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hlth.html
Play Date: 05/02/2006
IART (Integra Lifesciences--$42.82; +0.47; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iart.html
After Hours: $42.87
STATUS: Test breakout. Volume was back above average Friday as IART cleared the recent highs in its lateral move that was testing the breakout. Solid move and looking to move in as it continues higher. To recap: IART continues to set up well to further its breakout from mid-April, moving laterally in a narrow range above the 10 day EMA (42.05). Volume jumped well above average Tuesday and Friday. Looking for it to make a strong break higher from its 7 week base that formed using the 50 day EMA (40.41) as support. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buying as IART sets up for a new all-time high.
Volume: 229.251K Avg Volume: 177.054K
BUY POINT: New $42.98 (orig. $42.75) Volume=264K Target=$50.00 Stop=$41.11
POSITION: UJI IH - Sept. $40c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/iart.html
Play Date: 05/04/2006
ISIL (Intersil Holdings--$30.70; +0.04; optionable): Analog integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/isil.html
After Hours: $30.69
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Strong move Thursday and then stalled Friday on very low volume. Still looks super for the continued breakout move this week. To recap: ISIL is heading for a 4 year high, starting the breakout from a 14 week base. Gapped higher in January on strong earnings, rallied to 30, then filled the gap in March; that formed the 'head.' Rebounded and spent April moving laterally, forming the right shoulder. Nice higher low the past week at the 18 day EMA (29.52) and starting higher. Needs to show more volume as it runs higher. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation shows net buying. Solid technical position and good fundamentals to match.
Volume: 1.024M Avg Volume: 1.963M
BUY POINT: $30.95 Volume=3M Target=$37.00 Stop=$29.15
POSITION: UFH JF - Oct. $30c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/isil.html
Play Date: 05/04/2006
MCHP (Microchip--$37.95; +0.01; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mchp.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Good move Thursday but Friday the chips took the day off, resting before making the next move. That leaves MCHP in great shape and ready for a new all-time high this week. To recap: MCHP made a few attempts at breaking out in April, but in the market chop it just couldn't quite make the real breakaway move; it would start, but then fade. Nice 14 week base formed above the 50 day EMA (36.41), consolidating and setting up for a new all-time high. Made a higher low at that level the past week and jumped higher this week. Solid move last Thursday on rising almost average volume. Money flow is leading higher as MCHP readies for the new all-time high. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation in the base. Looks nice and looks ready.
Volume: 1.193M Avg Volume: 1.573M
BUY POINT: $38.64 Volume=2.4M Target=$45.00 Stop=$37.00
POSITION: QMT JG - Oct. $35c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mchp.html
Play Date: 05/03/2006
NGPS (Novatel--$37.95; +0.79; optionable): High-precision global positioning systems and components
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ngps.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle breakout. Strong move Wednesday, a quick test Thursday, and then starting back up Friday. No volume Friday, but still looking good for this solid market leader with both a great pattern and great fundamentals growth rates. To recap: Reported strong earnings last Tuesday and surged Wednesday, breaking out from its 9.5 month base that formed making higher and higher lows along the 50 day EMA (35.02). Excellent 12 to 5 accumulation (12 up price weeks on rising volume to 5 down price weeks on rising volume) shows lots of buying as the base formed. Showed the softness Thursday we were looking for and we like the rebound Friday. Want to see good volume this week as it continues higher after the breakout test.
Volume: 117.303K Avg Volume: 125.898K
BUY POINT: 38.05 Volume=200K Target=$45.00 Stop=$35.68
POSITION: QAZ IG - Sept. $35c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ngps.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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