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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: CTXS; CX; JOBS; NAK; NUAN; RMD; TESOF
Thursday night play results:
ATML: Doji right at the breakout point
JOBS: Nice move on solid volume.
MCHP: Still set for the breakout.
TTEC: Faded back a bit after the strong Thursday break higher. Wanted a bit of a test fo that move.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/06/2006
HELX (Helix Technology--$42.91; +1.52; optionable): Oil & gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/helx.html
After Hours: $42.86
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Strong volume to end the week as HELX starts the breakout move from its 15 week base formed using the 50 day EMA (38.54) as support. This is setting HELX up for a new high. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation shows plenty of buying, setting up the breakout move to come. Like that volume as it tested down to the 18 day EMA (39.93) and then rebounded. Solid fundamentals to go along with the pattern.
Volume: 2.288M Avg Volume: 1.212M
BUY POINT: $43.89 Volume=1.6M Target=$52.50 Stop=$41.75
POSITION: KPQ IH - Sept. $40c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/helx.html
Play Date: 05/06/2006
LUK (Leucadia National--$62.08; +1.22; optionable): Holding company for manufacturing, healthcare, telecom, real estate, wineries, etc.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 12-8-04 at $64.70.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/luk.html
STATUS: Ascending base. After a breakout from a year long base in January, LUK ran higher up the 18 day EMA (60.73); great breakout move. It peaked just below 62 in early April and began a 5 week lateral move, testing the breakout run but refusing to give up any ground. Very strong stock. Friday LUK started to break higher from the consolidation. Volume was not there yet, however, so we are looking for stronger trade to kick in this week as it continues the move.
Volume: 165.9K Avg Volume: 332.486K
BUY POINT: $62.22 Volume=375K Target=$74.00 Stop=$60.72
POSITION: LUK IL - Sept. $60c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/luk.html
Play Date: 05/06/2006
ORBK (Orbotech--$25.98; +0.35; optionable): Product support solutions for electronics supply chain
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/orbk.html
EARNINGS: 5-9-06
After Hours: $25.89
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A nice 15 week base looks ready to make the break higher. Good price break Friday as volume rallied up to average. Nice base that formed on the 200 day SMA (24.20), setting up the breakout to a 3 year high. Part of a larger 9 month base, ORBK looks very solid to give us the breakout move. Solid accumulation and solid fundamentals. Money flow is racing higher ahead of price and looking for ORBK to continue the move.
Volume: 89.021K Avg Volume: 83.2K
BUY POINT: $26.15 Volume=150K Target=$31.00 Stop=$25.11
POSITION: OKQ JE - Oct. $25c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/orbk.html
Play Date: 05/06/2006
SPSS (SPSS, Inc.--$37.00; -1.87; no options): Predictive analytics technology software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spss.html
STATUS: Breakout test. SPSS surged out of its 4 month ascending base Wednesday on a strong earnings report. Nice pattern that walked up the 50 day EMA (33.31), using that key level as support. Solid 3 to 0 accumulation shows all buying in the base as SPSS set up for a new all-time high. Surging money flow and a relative strength breakout. Strong breakout move, nice test. Looking for it to continue the test down to the 10 day EMA (35.74) and then picking it up on the rebound. Super technical pattern to match its solid fundamentals growth. Excellent.
Volume: 220.473K Avg Volume: 159.202K
BUY POINT: Test 35.75, then $36.32 on the rebound Volume=239K Target=$43.50 Stop=$34.62
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/spss.html
Continuing plays ready to move:
Play Date: 04/29/2006
BLKB (Blackbaud--$21.29; +0.26; no options): Software for non-profit organizations
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/blkb.html
EARNINGS: May 8
STATUS: Test breakout. Volume moved higher but was still below average Friday as BLKB moved toward the March high (21.68) hit after the late February breakout. Looks ready to make the move to the new high. To recap: Good breakout in February from a 12 week flat base, running higher to 21.68 on that breakout run. It needed a breather to regroup and set up for the next move, and came back to test the 50 day EMA (19.97) in April, holding that level and then getting some legs under it to end the week. Strong stock with solid fundamentals to go along with the strong technical pattern that puts BLKB looking for a new all-time high. Strong money flow is leading higher and BLKB looks ready to follow. Just needs some volume to take it to the next level.
Volume: 408.885K Avg Volume: 503.402K
BUY POINT: New: $21.42 (orig. $21.25) Volume=750K Target=$25.50 Stop=$20.15
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/blkb.html
Play Date: 05/04/2006
MCHP (Microchip--$37.95; +0.01; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mchp.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Good move Thursday but Friday the chips took the day off, resting before making the next move. That leaves MCHP in great shape and ready for a new all-time high this week. To recap: MCHP made a few attempts at breaking out in April, but in the market chop it just couldn't quite make the real breakaway move; it would start, but then fade. Nice 14 week base formed above the 50 day EMA (36.41), consolidating and setting up for a new all-time high. Made a higher low at that level the past week and jumped higher this week. Solid move last Thursday on rising almost average volume. Money flow is leading higher as MCHP readies for the new all-time high. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation in the base. Looks nice and looks ready.
Volume: 1.193M Avg Volume: 1.573M
BUY POINT: $38.64 Volume=2.4M Target=$45.00 Stop=$37.00
POSITION: QMT JG - Oct. $35c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/mchp.html
Play Date: 04/26/2006
SPIL (Siliconware Precision--$7.38; +0.04; optionable): Semiconductor packaging & testing services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spil.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Trying to put the finishing touches on the right shoulder to the base, holding the 18 day EMA (7.10) on the lows. Solid volume as it bounced higher Wednesday; that is what we want to see as it continues higher and shows us the breakout move. To recap: SPIL split in July and then rallied well to end 2005. After that move it needed a rest and the current 15 week pattern is giving it that. Good price/volume action in the pattern combined with money flow that is turning higher. Looking to move in as it continues this break higher. Solid. Ready to move to a new 5 year high.
Volume: 418.361K Avg Volume: 1.911M
BUY POINT: $7.51 Volume=2.2M Target=$9.11 Stop=$6.98
POSITION: QSP IU - Sept. $7.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/spil.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, BRCM, CELG, COH, FFIV, GME, MRVL, NVDA, PSYS, UNH
AAPL: Working laterally at the April high. Very similar pattern to SOX and many semiconductors for some reason. Not bad.
CELG: Well, after the drop to the 18 day EMA it bounced hard Friday on rising, average trade. Ready for a buy on a move past 43.40.
COH: Diving lower after the low volume test of the 18 day EMA following the breakdown below the 200 day SMA.
MRVL: Still working on that double bottom over the 200 day SMA.
PSYS: Back down to support at 30 last week. May look at a play back up to 34.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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