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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: AL; CTXS; ICE; INFA; NGPS; RADN; VARI
Strong plays:
1) AUY: Nice pattern, tightening up for the breakout.
2) KYPH: Nice lateral move forming the handle.
3) XLE: Getting ripe for the next move higher.
4) KONG: Volume is picking up.
5) MCHP: Still looks mighty nice for a breakout.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 05/08/2006
AUY (Yamana Gold--$10.90; -0.11; optionable): Gold
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/auy.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. AUY is setting up for a breakout after forming a 5 week consolidation on the 18 day EMA (10.72). This follows the early April breakout from an 8 week base. Nice base on base pattern that is setting up a stronger move higher. Nice tight pattern building for the next breakout. When a stock moves out of these kind of bases it is usually explosive.
Volume: 1.5M Avg Volume: 1.671M
BUY POINT: $11.48 Volume=2.5M Target=$13.78 Stop=$10.68
POSITION: AUY JB - Oct. $10c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/auy.html
Play Date: 05/08/2006
KYPH (Kyphon--$43.20; -0.30; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kyph.html
After Hours: $43.25
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Forming a nice flat handle on low, below average volume the past week as KYPH consolidates the strong move up right at the end of April. Good start to a handle to its 24 week base. Setting up nicely for a run at a new all-time high. Strong money flow is leading the way higher. Solid fundamentals, solid pattern.
Volume: 336.757K Avg Volume: 620.683K
BUY POINT: $44.15 Volume=750K Target=$52.95 Stop=$42.00
POSITION: QYQ II - Sept. $45c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/kyph.html
Play Date: 05/08/2006
PDS (Precision Drilling--$35.90; +0.17; optionable): Oil and gas drilling & equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pds.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Nice breakout in mid-April sent PDS to a new high at 38. It came back to test the move the past week, moving in a lateral range over the 10 day EMA (35.63) on low, below average volume. Nice, orderly test, preparing PDS for the continued move higher. Love the first tests of breakouts; a strong stock often moves well after this initial shakeout of the early profit takers.
Volume: 448.7K Avg Volume: 706.989K
BUY POINT: $36.75 Volume=1.1M Target=$44.00 Stop=$35.00
POSITION: PDS LG - Sept. $35c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pds.html
Play Date: 05/08/2006
STTS (Stats Chippac Ltd.--$8.29; -0.06; no options): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stts.html
After Hours: $8.29
STATUS: Test breakout. Solid breakout in late April moving out of a 9 month cup with handle on a very strong shot of volume on a good earnings report. Nice surge and now a nice, low volume test, coming back to the 18 day EMA (8.21) on lower volume. That trade kicked back up Friday and Monday, jumping back above average as STTS trades in a tight range. Looking for a rebound from here on continued solid trade to start the play.
Volume: 1.106M Avg Volume: 960.536K
BUY POINT: $8.55 Volume=1.4M Target=$10.28 Stop=$8.12
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/stts.html
Play Date: 05/08/2006
XLE (Spdr Energy Sector--$58.60; -0.26; optionable): Energy ETF
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xle.html
After Hours: $58.75
STATUS: Breakout test. XLE is holding the 18 day EMA (57.75) on the intraday lows, holding the breakout after a quick dump lower to the 50 day EMA (56.07) to end April. Good recovery and setting up for the continued move higher. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation in the base. Nice test of near support. Looking for a good break higher from here to resume the breakout run.
Volume: 17.093M Avg Volume: 23.662M
BUY POINT: $59.55 Volume=30M Target=$69.95 Stop=$57.57
POSITION: XBT IG - Sept. $59c (57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/xle.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Play Date: 04/29/2006
BLKB (Blackbaud--$20.84; -0.45; no options): Software for non-profit organizations
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/blkb.html
EARNINGS: May 8
STATUS: Test breakout. Ran higher ahead of earnings, hitting 21.97 on the high but then reversing to give it all back and a bit more. Held the 18 day EMA (20.67) on the close. After hours announced earnings and was trying to bounce. To recap: Good breakout in February from a 12 week flat base, running higher to 21.68 on that breakout run. It needed a breather to regroup and set up for the next move, and came back to test the 50 day EMA (20.01) in April, holding that level and then getting some legs under it to end the week. Strong stock with solid fundamentals to go along with the strong technical pattern that puts BLKB looking for a new all-time high. Strong money flow is leading higher and BLKB looks ready to follow. Just needs some volume to take it to the next level.
Volume: 408.885K Avg Volume: 503.402K
BUY POINT: $21.25 Volume=750K Target=$25.50 Stop=$20.15
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/blkb.html
Play Date: 05/06/2006
GRP (Grant Prideco--$52.24; -0.38; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/grp.html
Earnings: Announced 4-19-05
STATUS: Breakout test. Tested the 18 day EMA (50.76) on the low and bounced, cutting its losses for the session. Still setting up to continue the move. We are looking at several energy plays; the first one to make a strong move gets some money. To recap: GRP shot higher on its strong earnings, breaking out from its 11 week cup base that used the 200 day SMA (41.31) on the lows as support. It struggled at the end of the month along with many of the energy stocks, but it held and rebounded smartly back to the April high at 54. Spent the last half of last week testing, coming back to the 10 day EMA. This is holding the breakout and keeps GRP above the highs in the base from February. Just being patient and letting GRP show us the next break higher. Very good fundamentals to go along with the solid pattern that is ready to take GRP to a new all-time high.
Volume: 1.61M Avg Volume: 2.239M
BUY POINT: $54.05 Volume=3.4M Target=$64.89 Stop=$51.62
POSITION: GRP JK - Oct. $55c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/grp.html
Play Date: 05/01/2006
HLTH (Webmd Corp.--$11.60; -0.02; optionable): Healthcare information service
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hlth.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Still set up for the breakout, moving laterally Monday on very low, below average volume. Basically took the day off, but that is good in this lateral consolidation. To recap: Announced strong earnings mid-April and surged higher on strong volume, making the breakout from its 6.5 month cup with handle base. Excellent 8 to 2 accumulation (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows strong buying in the base. Ready to break to a new 5 year high. Volume started to return last week. Ready to move in as it continues higher.
Volume: 1.809M Avg Volume: 2.622M
BUY POINT: $11.98 Volume=3.5M Target=$14.38 Stop=$11.22
POSITION: HUT JB - Oct. $10c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hlth.html
Play Date: 04/29/2006
KONG (Kongzhong--$13.90; -0.09; optionable): Chinese wireless interactive entertainment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kong.html
EARNINGS: 5-18-06
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working laterally, forming the handle over the 18 day EMA (13.63). Volume jumped Monday; getting ready. To recap: A new issue in mid-2004, KONG has set up a nice 16 week base just below a new all-time high. It formed the current base using the 200 day SMA (12.25) on the low as support. Positive accumulation is setting up the breakout. Nice pullback during the recent market selling has formed a low volume handle that held the 18 day EMA support. Just going to be patient and let it show us the break higher.
Volume: 220.212K Avg Volume: 280.508K
BUY POINT: $14.35 Volume=442K Target=$17.25 Stop=$13.35
POSITION: QKR IV - Sept. $12.50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/kong.html
Play Date: 05/04/2006
MCHP (Microchip--$37.57; -0.38; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mchp.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Hammer doji at the 10 day EMA (37.46) as MCHP continues setting up for the break higher. Nice low volume as it sets up to move higher. Excellent action. To recap: MCHP made a few attempts at breaking out in April, but in the market chop it just couldn't quite make the real breakaway move; it would start, but then fade. Nice 14 week base formed above the 50 day EMA (36.46), consolidating and setting up for a new all-time high. Made a higher low at that level the past week and jumped higher this week. Solid move last Thursday on rising almost average volume. Money flow is leading higher as MCHP readies for the new all-time high. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation in the base. Looks nice and looks ready.
Volume: 928.006K Avg Volume: 1.573M
BUY POINT: $38.64 Volume=2.4M Target=$45.00 Stop=$37.00
POSITION: QMT JG - Oct. $35c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mchp.html
Play Date: 05/01/2006
QGEN (Qiagen--$15.28; -0.07; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qgen.html
After Hours: $15.25
STATUS: Cup. Forming the handle to its base, a better set up for the next move higher after a decent run to end April and start May. May take another day or two but we want to be ready. To recap: QGEN rallied hard in February, clearing a 6.5 month base with quite a surge up to 15.50. It has tested back the past 8 weeks, holding the 50 day EMA (14.46) at the mid-April lows. Cleared some interim resistance in the base at 15 last week. Excellent 4 to 0 accumulation in the base shows all buying as it consolidated that earlier breakout. Ready to move in as the solid move continues.
Volume: 128.856K Avg Volume: 276.483K
BUY POINT: New: 15.55 (orig. $15.22) Volume=439K Target=$18.32 Stop=$14.55
POSITION: QXE HC - Aug. $15c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/qgen.html
Play Date: 05/06/2006
TEK (Tektronix--$35.90; -0.28; optionable): Test, measurement and monitoring devices.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split at $73 on 9-21-00. Before that a 3:2 split at $67 on 9-24-97.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tek.html
STATUS: Flat base. Nice low volume test of the 10 day EMA (35.74) Monday, showing a tight doji at that level Monday. It is ready to move higher after this higher low. Nice. To recap: TEK is moving in a 7 week lateral base that is using the 18 day EMA (35.56) as support. Strong gap higher in mid-March on its earnings release and this test refuses to give up any of the gains, always a good sign. Excellent 3 to 0 accumulation in the lateral move (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume) shows excellent buying; that means a breakout is coming.
Volume: 279.8K Avg Volume: 524.692K
BUY POINT: $36.88 Volume=787K Target=$44.00 Stop=$35.32
POSITION: TEK JG - Oct. $35c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tek.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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