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Begin part 2 of 2
Full report issues Thursday.
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: GG; LRCX; RIO
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 05/10/2006
CELG (Celgene--$42.88; +0.22; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/celg.html
After Hours: $42.99
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Made us some nice money in its past runs but needed a rest. It peaked at 44 to end March and then fell into the current 6 week base that used the 50 day EMA (39.62) as support. Positive accumulation and strong money flow complement one another. Volume jumped up to average Wednesday as CELG continued to trade in a narrow range. Looking for strong volume to send it to the breakout.
Volume: 3.626M Avg Volume: 3.498M
BUY POINT: $43.55 Volume=5M Target=$52.00 Stop=$40.88
POSITION: LQH JV - Oct. $42.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/celg.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/09/2006
SNDK (Sandisk--$63.17; -0.18; optionable): Semiconductor, flash memory. Researching date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split $69.60 on 1-21-04.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sndk.html
After Hours: $63.20
STATUS: Ascending base. Nice doji at the 10 day EMA (62.71) in a weaker tech market, continuing to put the finishing touches on its pattern. Looks ready to show the move. To recap: SNDK is looking perky again with volume surging Tuesday as it bumps up again the highs in its 5 week lateral move above the 50 day EMA (60.83). This is part of a 16 week cup base, ready to come off the bottom and form the right side of the pattern. That move can make us some solid coin because SNDK is setting up a pattern that delivers a strong break higher. Like the volume and looking for it to continue as SNDK clears the highs in the 5 week range.
Volume: 12.267M Avg Volume: 11.213M
BUY POINT: $65.88 Volume=17M Target=$79.00 Stop=$62.38
POSITION: SWF JU - Oct. $67.50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sndk.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/02/2006
DO (Diamond Offshore--$95.65; -0.09; optionable): Oil and gas offshore drilling. Researching the date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split 7-10-97 at $82.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/do.html
After Hours: $95.50
STATUS: Test breakout. DO continues to tighten up its range just below the breakout point, moving higher and higher up the 10 day EMA (94.51). Just waiting for it to show us the breakout. To recap: Broke out from a nice 9 week range in late April, surging on strong volume. It moved to 95 and started to move laterally once more, setting the groundwork for the next move. Like the high volume Friday as DO narrows its range and taps at the breakout point. Strong market leader, and looking to move in as it continues higher.
Volume: 2.07M Avg Volume: 2.682M
BUY POINT: $96.55 Volume=2.8M Target=$109.95 Stop=$92.00
POSITION: DO IS - Sept. $95c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/do.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
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http://stocksplits.net/ssr/table.php
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri =Ascending triangle; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AEIS 05/03 Cup hdl 16.02 -0.69 16.92 20.32 363K 800K 16.00
Current. Low volume pullback testing the breakout. May continue to test back to 18 day MVA (15.80)
ANSS 04/10 PreAnn 56.84 -0.27 53.20 61.25 301K 325K 55.22
Current.
APC 05/06 PreSplt 108.73 +1.76 107.25 120.00 2M 2.7M 104.00
Buy Not Issued.
CCJ 05/06 Test BO 44.20 +0.70 44.18 52.00 2M 2.5M 42.32
Entered today.
CMC 04/29 PreSplt 62.33 +0.67 55.82 66.66 837K 1.2M 59.95
Target Hit. Took some interim gain after stalled a bit on this
run given its pre-split status, but letting remaining
positions ride as CMC continues up the 10 day EMA.
CORS 04/25 PreSplt 65.52 -0.45 63.60 72.00 187K 399K 64.88
Current. Ease back on low volume. Moving up after testing the breakout.
CTSH 04/26 Test BO 68.59 -0.37 64.11 73.95 1.1M 1.4M 66.38
Current.
CX 04/01 PreAnn 71.51 -0.08 66.94 76.70 1.6M 2.7M 69.38
Current. Beginning to make a lateral move on average volume holding the gain.
CYMI 04/25 Test BO 52.42 -1.04 52.65 62.00 575K 1.5M 53.00
Trailing Stop.
CYMI 04/03 Dbl btm 52.42 -1.04 48.12 57.45 575K 1.3M 52.95
Current. Pullback to hold the 18 day MVA on low volume. Should be ready to bounce from here.
DAKT 04/08 PreAnn 42.15 -0.90 40.05 47.45 255K 195K 41.22
Current.
DBRN 03/27 PreSplt 26.47 +0.08 24.30 29.35 491K 1.1M 25.92
Current. Showing a tight doji on low volume. Moving up after testing the 18 day MVA.
DBRN 02/21 PreSplt 26.47 +0.08 22.77 27.25 491K 1.2M 25.92
DIA 04/27 Test 18 116.56 +0.22 114.52 117.55 8.3M 7.2M 114.87
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume.
DO 05/02 PreAnn 95.65 -0.09 96.55 109.95 2.1M 2.8M 92.00
Buy Not Hit. Beginning to consolidate on low volume.
ESI 05/06 PreAnn 65.25 -0.12 65.24 77.50 417K 579K 63.05
Buy Not Issued.
FTO 05/06 PreSplt 65.08 +0.41 65.55 76.95 1.8M 2.2M 61.89
Current.
FWRD 04/22 PreAnn 40.33 +0.21 40.75 48.90 168K 388K 38.48
Buy Not Issued. Tested the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back on average volume. Still in the pattern.
GG 03/20 Asc Bse 40.67 +0.26 28.32 33.98 7.9M 5.6M 38.22
Current. Continue to trend higher on strong volume.
GRMN 04/01 PreAnn 97.00 -0.67 81.75 95.00 1M 2M 93.12
Current. Pullback on average volume. Taking a breather after such a nice run.
HAL 05/09 PreSplt 82.23 +0.46 82.12 95.95 5.8M 8.5M 79.38
Entered today.
HTLD 05/09 PreSplt 24.93 -0.35 25.62 30.50 159K 525K 24.55
Buy Not Hit.
IGT 05/02 Test BO 39.20 -0.05 39.08 45.75 1.1M 2.5M 37.57
Current.
ISIL 05/04 Asc Bse 29.46 -0.73 30.95 37.00 1.2M 3M 29.15
Buy Not Issued. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
JCOM 04/27 Test BO 51.29 +0.25 50.22 57.89 320K 800K 49.45
Current.
LCAV 05/06 PreAnn 56.57 -0.18 57.98 69.50 507K 1.1M 55.00
Buy Not Issued. Beginning to make a lateral move on below average volume. Moving parallel with the 10 day MVA.
LRCX 05/02 Test BO 51.83 -1.48 49.89 60.00 3.3M 4.5M 51.21
Current. Pullback on slightly above average volume. May continue to test back to 10 day MVA (51.05)
LRCX 04/05 PreAnn 51.83 -1.48 44.88 52.38 3.3M 4M 51.21
Current.
LUK 05/06 PreAnn 61.34 -1.39 62.62 74.00 421K 375K 60.81
Current. Thudded down holding just above the 18 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Looking for a bounce off the 18 day MVA (61.22)
MCHP 05/04 Cup hdl 36.02 -0.48 38.64 45.00 1.6M 2.4M 37.00
Buy Not Hit. Continue to pullback below the 50 day MVA on average volume holding at some support. Should rebound from here.
NVDA 04/27 Test 18 29.52 -0.67 30.50 36.00 12M 14M 29.21
Current.
NVDA 03/07 PreSplt 29.52 -0.67 25.08 29.98 12M 6.2M 29.29
Current.
PDS 05/08 Test BO 36.07 +0.08 36.75 44.00 380K 1.1M 35.00
Buy Not Hit. Meeting some new resistance here.
PLCE 04/18 PreAnn 66.36 +0.40 62.18 72.35 241K 800K 64.39
Current.
POOL 04/17 PreAnn 46.10 -0.43 49.62 56.89 271K 350K 47.55
Current. Now it needs to make a stand here at the 50 day EMA.
Has shown stronger volume on the up sessions but for
Wednesday. Thus we need to see it rebound thru the
18 day EMA (46.84).
POT 05/02 PreAnn 104.16 -1.88 101.04 117.50 602K 1M 103.45
Current. Pullback on low volume. Still moving up the 10 day MVA.
QCOM 03/23 Test BO 51.66 -1.08 50.71 59.98 10M 15M 51.38
Current. Pullback holding the 10 day MVA on lower below average volume. Meeting some resistance at 52 established last week.
QCOM 03/04 Rv H&S 51.66 -1.08 48.88 57.95 10M 19M 51.38
Current.
RES 04/29 Cup hdl 31.34 -0.08 28.55 34.50 831K 810K 31.00
Volatile session tapping 34.79 at the intraday high, but gave it back testing the 10 day MVA intraday on very strong volume surge. Testing the breakout. May continue to test the 10 day MVA (28.60)
RIO 04/20 PreAnn 57.73 -0.45 51.18 58.88 3.8M 5.2M 55.55
Target Hit. Took some interim gain after brushing w/target price
past 2 sessions and then showing a doji. Still strong
up the 10 day & letting rest of positions run.
RMD 03/27 Test BO 47.86 -0.64 43.95 50.95 432K 600K 46.22
Current. Pullback on lower, but strong volume. Still in uptrend.
SBUX 05/04 Test 50 38.20 -0.25 39.34 46.95 5.8M 6M 37.95
Current. Pullback holding the 18 day MVA on above average volume. Should be ready to bounce from here.
SLB 05/09 Test 18 73.06 +1.28 72.38 86.00 7.2M 12M 69.39
Entered today. Nice move up the 10 day MVA on rising volume.
SNDK 05/09 Asc Bse 63.17 -0.18 65.88 79.00 12M 17M 62.38
Buy Not Hit. Pullback testing the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back holding the 10 day MVA on lower, but above average volume. Still in good shape.
SOX 05/03 Test 50 507.05 -12.95 526.00 550.00 0 0 523.00
Current. Fell thru the 50 day SMA (512.66) in likely an overreaction to FOMC result. Expecting a rebound once this news
is digested this week.
SPIL 04/26 Rv H&S 7.03 -0.09 7.51 9.11 885K 2.2M 6.98
Buy Not Hit. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop, but will keep an eye on it.
TEK 05/06 Flat 35.43 -0.56 36.88 44.00 317K 787K 35.32
Buy Not Hit.
TEVA 05/02 Test 20 37.56 -5.35 44.25 53.00 44M 7.2M 41.95
Buy Not Hit. Stock has not performed so will drop.
TSCO 05/09 PreAnn 64.45 +0.18 65.42 76.00 260K 422K 63.00
Buy Not Hit.
UBB 05/04 Cup hdl 85.19 -0.99 84.85 99.90 665K 1.3M 84.00
Current.
VIP 04/22 Dbl btm 49.83 -1.08 48.40 55.95 1.3M 1.2M 48.39
Current.
VIVO 03/21 Dbl btm 25.92 -0.34 26.58 32.45 181K 300K 26.05
Current. Pullback testing the 50 day MVA intraday and rallied back holding below the 18 day MVA on rising, but average volume. showing some good action coming off the day's low.
VSEA 04/25 Dbl btm 32.55 -0.73 32.67 38.00 504K 1.4M 32.25
Current.
WIRE 04/01 DB hdl 46.56 +0.03 35.28 42.45 595K 884K 44.21
Current.
WSM 05/06 PreAnn 43.41 -0.38 44.32 51.00 605K 900K 43.89
Buy Not Issued. Pullback testing the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back on average volume. Still in the pattern.
XLE 05/08 Test BO 59.50 +0.55 59.55 69.95 21M 30M 57.57
Buy Not Hit. Moving up the 10 day MVA on much stronger, but average volume. Looking good.
ZVXI 05/04 PreSplt 22.55 +0.08 21.95 36.00 65K 140K 21.89
Current.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
LM 05/03 Put 108.06 -8.46 114.57 110.00 6M 1.4M 116.32
Buy Not Issued. Gapped way down below our buy point on strong volume. Will let it bounce.
MHP 05/01 Put 53.55 -0.27 55.55 53.00 2.6M 2M 54.88
Hit near target on the low and showed a doji w/a slight
recover off session lows. Time to exit short term put
positions & wait for the next bounce to the 10 day MA.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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