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stock watch, stock split
Begin Part 3 of 3
Note: The QQQ play should have had as options to buy January $33 calls to buy (QQQ AG). 91 delta.
REMAINING PLAYS:
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PRE-ANNOUNCEMENTS REMAINING PLAYS:
Watchlist:
TRDO ($25.90; +0.65): Forecast to announce a split in the beginning of December in conjunction with a board meeting. The company will not confirm the board meeting but based upon our research the board meeting should take place at this time. Gave up the 50 day (27.02) Tuesday, but has not picked up strength on the drop. There is some support at 24, so we will see if it can hold on, but not too promising at the moment.
EASI ($40.88; -1.01): Forecast to announce a split on 12-10-01 in conjunction with earnings. At this time, the company cannot confirm this date. Has crept up on low volume, again reaching over the 10 day MVA (41.99) but not holding. Still a put on a drop back through 39.50 on above average (452,400; today very low at 74,900) volume, with January $50 puts to buy (UFE MI - very low open interest).
GTK ($44.90; +1.33): Forecast to announce a split on 12-13-01 in conjunction with earnings. At this time the company has not confirmed a time for the release. Bounced up from the 18 day MVA (43.43) today, but volume remained very weak (181,800; average 328,300). Not a promising move so far, but we will keep our eyes on a possible break to a new high over 45.62 on above average volume, with March $40 calls to buy (GTK CH -low open interest).
XL ($93.89; +2.74): Researching a date. Moved back up again today, taking out its short-term MVA's (10 day at 92.82), but volume remained very weak (802,600; average 2 million) as XL continues in its recent ranging pattern. The break to a new high is a move over 96.50 on above average volume, and the aggressive play is on a move over 95 on above average volume, both with stock and/or January $90 calls to buy (XL AR).
EDS ($68.51; -1.29): We are researching a date. We were leery of the move up Tuesday, and EDS has turned back, today on very strong volume (5.35 million; average 3.22 million), holding its 18 day MVA to close (68.19). We will see if it can hold or if it needs to retest the left-side cup highs near 66 (50 day at 64.85).
FDC ($72.99; +0.46): Working on a forecast date. Still holding on in a somewhat lateral consolidation after having broken over the left side of its cup (72), holding the short-term MVA's (10 day at 72.33, 18 day at 71.65). Breakout is 74.23 on volume of 3 million, with stock and/or February $70 calls to buy (FDC BN). On current positions we will look at selling some December $70 calls if it falls below the 18 day MVA, buying them back at support at the 50 day MVA (68.77).
MI ($62.25; +0.43): We are researching a forecast date. Still holding on after trying a break over recent highs Monday (high Tuesday 62.90), today pushing back up off the 10 day MVA (61.48), with lower volume (245,700; average 233,000). We are prepared for a possible drop, but the aggressive can look at a move to 63.02 on volume of 300,000, with stock and/or January $60 calls to buy (MI AL).
SONC ($32.30; -0.20): We are working on a date. After the weak move up we were looking for a drop, and SONC has done that, although it could hold its 50 day MVA (31.97) this time. Today it showed a doji over that support after gapping down, showing sharply higher volume (306,900; average 242,600). It is facing the short-term MVA's above (10 day at 32.69), and the aggressive can play a bounce over that level on increased volume, with stock and/or March $30 calls to buy (ZSQ CF).
Plays:
TJX (TJX Companies--$37.74; -0.51; optionable): Retail. Forecast to announce a split on 12-5-01 in conjunction with a board meeting. The company will not confirm this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the board meeting.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tjx.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 4-8-98 with a board meeting. The stock price was $43. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-5-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Looking toward a forecast date next week, and TJX is trying to break to a new high on the breakout test. TJX bounced from the 50 day MVA (then 34.50, just above its long-term trendline) earlier this month and broke to a new high, hitting 38.51 before dipping back to make the test. It was moving back up on pretty solid volume the last few sessions, but today tested back to its 10 day MVA (37.31) as volume dipped to 1.25 million (average 1.31 million). The double tops on the breakout are a concern, but if it can hold the 10 day and make a higher low we will see if it can make a solid breakout going into the forecast. The 18 day MVA is below at 36.76. Target on a breakout: 45.
BUY POINT: A move over 38.51 on volume of 1.5 million. Stop: 36.
POSITION: Stock and/or January $35 calls to buy (TJX AG).
DHR ($60.20; -0.99): Forecast to announce a split in late January in conjunction with earnings. At this time, the company cannot confirm a date for earnings release.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dhr.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 3-6-98 with a board meeting. The stock price was $70. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-1-01 at which time authorized shares were increased. The company has enough shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: DHR formed a cup in the shape of a reverse head and shoulders pattern, and it is now trying to hold a move back over its neckline. After a weak move that hit up to 61.80 Wednesday, DHR pulled back today, moving with increased volume (1.15 million; average 1.27 million). It did manage to hold the 10 day MVA (59.92), which is concurrent with its down trendline (connecting December and May highs). If it can hold we will still have a decent consolidation that could give us a strong breakout. The first resistance is the February, May and June highs at 65, and the target is 70.
BUY POINT: 61.92 on volume of 1.9 million. Stop: 58.
POSITION: Stock and/or March $55 calls to buy (DHR CK - low open interest).
NDN ($37.06; +1.36): Retail. Researching a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ndn.html
STATUS: Continued up today after its very strong bounce up from the 50 day MVA (33.80) Monday. After a couple of days rest, volume was way up today (498,100; average 362,000) as NDN reached over our buy point (the July, October and November closing highs at 37), hitting up to 37.89 before pulling back to close. Showing a lot of strength, and we are targeting 45 with existing positions, watching the October intraday spike that hit 39.50. Off of today's candlestick a pullback is possible, but we will look for a hold of 36 if we get that move. New positions from here are aggressive momentum.
BUY POINT: Aggressive momentum: 38 on increased volume. Stop: 35.34 (7%; 18 day MVA at 34.78).
POSITION: Stock and/or March $35 calls to buy (NDN CG).
PRE-SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:
Watchlist:
PBG ($44.57; +0.57): Splits 2:1 effective 12-5-01. Drifted down until making a quick relief bounce today. PBG dropped out of a pennant/descending wedge and through its long-term trendline (from September 2000, up at 45.70). Nothing at the moment.
ITG ($55.30; -0.25): Splits 3:2 effective 12-10-01. Serious drop Wednesday. It tapped down near the 200 day (53.68) before recovering today. Dropping.
FLO ($41.99; +0.31): Splits 3:2 1-3-01. Took a nasty fall Tuesday but promptly turned back around and it now back over the 10 day MVA (41.69). Volume has been low on the move back up, however, and prospects do not look great for a strong move up at the moment, but we have time. The aggressive can look at a buy point of 42.87 on above average volume (65,400; today 46,100), with stock and/or $40 calls to buy (FLO AH).
VAR ($68.90; -2.10): Splits 2:1 on or about January 16. Not good. Continued down on even heavier volume (463,700; average 232,100), testing its 200 day (67.57) before closing on the 50 day (68.66). Quite a bit of support here, but selling is very strong. We will see if it can hold, but it will be a while before we have something to the upside.
Continuing Plays:
EPIQ (Epiq Systems--$29.57; +1.58; optionable): Splits 3:2 effective December 3.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/epiq.html
STATUS: EPIQ dropped off the table, taking out its 50 day MVA (30.33), gapping through our put buy point Wednesday before managing a relief bounce today. A weak move up, and we are riding positions for a post-split drop, and looking for a move back through 28 for new post-split positions with a target of the 200 day MVA (24.26).
PLAY: On a move below 29 on above average volume (167,000; today down to 150,200), with January $35 puts to buy (FQU MG).
CACI (Caci International--$74.19; +1.89; optionable): Technical services. Splits 2:1 effective 12-7-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/caci.html
STATUS: A very solid move Tuesday has slowed, with CACI tapping 75 at its high (75.36 Wednesday) before pulling back to close. Volume has been decreasing on the attempts to follow up (332,600 today; average 305,500). We could get a dip back here, so we will be ready to take profits and will look at recent highs with the 10 day MVA (69.67) to hold on the drop, and perhaps give us another move before the split. For a move from here we will see if it can gain strength and take out Tuesday's high.
PLAY: From here: 75.48 on increased volume, with stock and/or January $70 calls to buy (KQL AN - low open interest). Initial stop just below the 10 day MVA, following up to protect profits.
CBH ($75.25; +0.15): Splits 2:1 effective 12-19-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbh.html
STATUS: Still in a precarious handle, although it is holding the 10 day MVA (74.86), today with a low-volume (70,700; average 153,700) doji. It could go either way, and we are still wary of a drop back toward the 50 day (72.63), but with the support holding we could get a quick move up and a breakout from the handle. Target: 83.
PLAY: 75.86 on volume of 230,000, with stock and/or January (very low open interest currently) or March $70 calls to buy (CBH AN or CBH CN).
KIM (Kimco Realty--$50.00; +0.14; no options): REIT. Splits 3:2 effective 12-24-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kim.html
STATUS: KIM is in a large ascending wedge, and after pulling back earlier in the week held the 18 day MVA (49.52). That is a higher low, and we are looking for it to hold and make a breakout move. Today it tested below the 18 day but then made a move up, but volume remained quite low at 74,500 (average 170,000). Looking for strength on a break over the high of 50.20 (from last week). Target: 60.
PLAY: 50.32 on volume of 230,000. Stop: 48.
CONTINUING CANDIDATES REMAINING PLAYS: When splits are not announced, we will keep the best split prospects on the report rather than continue to carry all of them in case there is a an unexpected announcement. We will continue to monitor the stocks that are trimmed and add them again when we ascertain a revised split announcement date.
Watchlist:
ACS ($95.25; +0.75): Testing back to the 18 day MVA (93.90), holding over that support after having dropped off after its gap and reversal (up to 97.45) Monday. Looking carefully at the 18 day, as a strong breach could signal us to exit positions. If it can hold, we can look for a continued move up toward the 105-110 target.
FLIR ($41.99; +0.10): Has recovered from the recent low of 33.75 and is now holding over the 50 day (40.61). We will see if it can continue to hold and give a solid move. Price/volume action has not been great of late.
JEC ($70.70; +0.46): Held the 50 day MVA (67.80) on its recent drop and is now creeping up on low volume (took out the short-term MVA's, 10 day at 70.05). Not a good pattern to generate a move, so we will see if we get another test of the 50 day to set up another try.
PEP ($48.53; +0.08): Is trying to hold the 50 day MVA (48.53) after recent drop from 50 (drop preceded by a weak volume move up). Today it traded in a wide range on continued low volume, again tapping recent intraday support at 48. Precarious, but not much here to set up a play.
RMD ($58.88; +0.58): Not showing strength. Has pulled up over the short-term MVA's (18 day 57.34) but is creeping along on low volume (108,000 today; average 230,000). We will see if it can hold the 18 day on a low volume dip, but for new or additional positions few will need to see it go by its most recent high at 59.90 with volume of 300,000, with stock and/or January $55 calls to buy (RMD AK).
SLM ($85.80; -0.46): Was looking precarious, and fell back Tuesday, but managed to climb back up to close after tapping an intraday low of 85. Volume surged (629,700; average 679,600), though still below average. Still could visit the 50 day at 84.14, but that could set it up for a stronger move than we saw last time.
THC ($59.40; +0.70): Made a very solid move up last week, but has pulled back to the 50 day (58.09). The bounce was on continued weak volume, however (1.22 million; average 2.1 million). The aggressive can look at a move over 60 on above average volume, with stock and/or February $55 calls to buy (THC BK).
Plays:
APPB (Applebee's--$33.07; +0.61; optionable): Leisure: Restaurants
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/appb.html
STATUS: Still struggling. APPB has been trying to breakout from a ragged double bottom with handle, but the price/volume action is poor. Volume was weak on Monday's attempted move, and after pulling back to the recent support of the 18 day MVA (32.30), APPB made another weak bounce today (volume of 271,800; average 415,400). With the weak moves it could be due for a trip to the 50 day MVA (31.15). For positions from here we will need to see a breakout. Target on a breakout: 40
BUY POINT: A move over the high of 34.91 with continued minimum volume of 620,000. Stop: 32.50.
POSITION: Stock and/or February $30 calls to buy (AQB BF; under 100 open interests thus far).
STJ (St. Jude Medical--$74.08; -0.05): Health Services.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stj.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that STJ has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-17-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: STJ is moving in a handle to a small double bottom. After making a terrific move last week (spurred by good product news and an upgrade), STJ has pulled laterally, Wednesday attempting a move up but pulling back, and today gapping up but pulling back intraday. Volume was low on both moves (526,000 today; average 710,500). The intraday low tapped 73.30, which is well over the 10 day MVA (72.74), so we will see if it can continue to hold that level, setting up for a breakout move. The stock has made a solid run up over the past 19 months, occasionally dipping back to the 200 day MVA (last time in September) between bounces along the 50 day. Target: 83.
BUY POINT: Breakout: 74.47 on volume of 1 million. Stop: 70.
POSITION: January $70 calls to buy (STJ AN).
POST SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:
Watchlist:
ATK ($79.85; -0.05): Split 3:2 on 9-10-01. Closed with a loose doji under the confluence of MVA's (50 day at 81.61) as volume rose slightly to 269,500 (average 357,900). Still watching for the move down to the target of 75 to resume, but still wary of a stronger move back over the 18 day (82), which will trigger an exit of existing put positions.
BRO ($30.56; +0.38): Split 2:1 on 11-23-01. Has pulled back to the recent highs at 30 yesterday, (with the 10 day MVA, 30.21), and made a small push up from that level today, closing well off the high on below average volume (124,900, average 154,900). Holding on post-split, but not showing much yet. For positions, a move over 31.50 on above average volume, with stock.
MIKE ($28.08; +0.32): Split 2:1 effective November 27. Dipped through the 18 day (28.09) Wednesday, put pulled back up over that level today as volume increased sharply to 2.63 million (average 569,200). Still watching to see if it holds post-split, but we could see a further test to the 50 day at 25.46. MIKE has climbed far (from 17) in less then 2 months, so could need a rest. Decent earnings Wednesday, and is to go on the NYSE December 12. We will keep an eye on it.
WFMI ($43.00; +0.98): Split 2:1 on June 5. Still holding the post-breakout consolidation, with a test down to the 10 day (41.63) yesterday. Pushed up from that level today, as volume fell to 733,200 (average 734,500), but it wasn't enough to carry it past the recent highs. Still riding current positions to the target of 45, carefully protecting profits, but the aggressive can play a move over the recent highs on increased volume, looking at January $40 calls to buy (FMQ BH).
Plays:
AMHC (American Healthways; $31.49; +2.24; no options): Health Services. Split 3:2 effective 11-26-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amhc.html
STATUS: Great breakout today! After moving in a 4-week pennant that held over the short-term MVA's and through the Monday split, AMHC gave us the move we've been patiently waiting for, breaking out of the pattern on sharply increased volume of 363,700 (average 126,900). The stock closed just off the intraday high of 31.51 and well past our 5% "breakout buy" range, so we will look for a continued move up and enjoy the run with our current positions, and wait for lower volume profit taking to provide another opportunity to take additional positions. We are looking for a pullback to catch support over the recent high (an intraday spike to 30.0). Initial target: 35.
PLAY: After a lower volume pullback holds 30, a move back up on increased, above average volume, with stock. Stop: 28.
PDLI (Protein Design Labs--$37.51; +1.40; optionable): Biotechnology. Splits 2:1 effective October 12.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pdli.html
STATUS: A weak push off support today. PDLI followed Monday's breakout with a lower volume pullback to the 18 day MVA (35.93). The stock pushed up from that level today and closed over our aggressive buy point, but the slightly higher volume was not what we wanted for positions, coming in quite weak and below average at 1.78 million (average 2.24 million). We continue to watch this carefully as PDLI has made three bounces up the 18 day since its breakout in October, and it is struggling here. PDLI can move when it gets going, so we will continue to watch for a strong move. Target: 42.
PLAY: From here: Aggressive: A move over 38 on above average volume in a rally, with stock and/or February $32.50 calls to buy (PQI BZ). Stop: 35.75. The recent high is 39.39.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock watch
stock split
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