|
|
us stock market, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS: As noted in the summary, there are some strong leaders that are still looking very good.
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 05/13/2006
HOC (Holly Corp.--$79.94; +0.33; optionable): Oil and gas refining. Splits 2:1 on 6-2-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hoc.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Nice higher low at the 18 day EMA (79.03) last week as the market sold. Showing excellent relative strength versus the market and even many of the energy stocks. Strong run in March and April as HOC broke out. It peaked at 85 in April and then formed the current 5 week base, using the 50 day EMA (75.12) as support. Nice test of the breakout, setting up the next run higher.
Volume: 852.7K Avg Volume: 479.86K
BUY POINT: $82.35 Volume=720K Target=$98.50 Stop=$79.00
POSITION: HOC IQ - Sept. $85c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hoc.html
Play Date: 05/13/2006
KMG (Kerr-McGee--$110.19; -2.62; optionable): Independent oil and gas. Splits 2:1 on 6-15-06.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kmg.html
After Hours: $110.19
STATUS: Test breakout. Spent Thursday and Friday fading along with the market and most of the energy stocks, but still easily holding its breakout from a sweet 14 week base. It formed over the 50 day EMA (101.07), a key support level for a stock. Nice breakout to a new all-time high, surging on strong volume, and a nice test underway on volume much lower than the breakout trade. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows good buying to push KMG higher. Relative strength breakout with the price shows its strength, hence the rather modest pullback Friday. Looking for a further test toward the 10 day EMA (107.98) and then moving in as it bounces back.
Volume: 2.264M Avg Volume: 1.642M
BUY POINT: $109.45 Volume=2.5M Target=$125.95 Stop=$105.55
POSITION: KMG JB - Oct. $110c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kmg.html
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 05/13/2006
JBHT (JB Hunt Transportation--$25.00; -0.21; optionable): Trucking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jbht.html
After Hours: $25.05
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Trucking got my chips cashed in, keep trucking like the doodah man, together more or less in line, just keep trucking on . . . Nice test of the 18 day EMA (24.55) on the Friday low and a rebound to close at the 10 day. Nice volume shows buyers came in on the test, driving the stock back up. Nice 12 week base that formed using the institutional support level at the 200 day SMA (21.67) on the lows. Ready to move to yet another move to a new high. Looking to move in as it continues higher and through the buy point.
Volume: 1.869M Avg Volume: 1.692M
BUY POINT: $25.95 Volume=2.5M Target=$31.00 Stop=$24.45
POSITION: JHQ HE - Aug. $25c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jbht.html
Play Date: 05/13/2006
PPDI (Pharmaceutical Product Dev.--$36.03; +1.06; optionable): Medial labs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/ppdi.html
After Hours: $35.99
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. PPDI spent the past 4 weeks easing back on lower volume to fill the gap higher from mid-April on strong earnings. It held near the 50 day EMA (34.85) and the lateral range from February and March. On Thursday and Friday when the market sold PPDI started higher on strong, above average volume. After filling the gap the buyers came right back in. Nice to see the strong upside volume in a weak market. Looking to move in this week as it clears the March high.
Volume: 1.235M Avg Volume: 615.949K
BUY POINT: $36.22 Volume=924K Target=$42.96 Stop=$34.68
POSITION: PJQ JT - Oct. $35c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ppdi.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
ANSS: Looking for an announcement with its shareholder meeting that will occur in late May or early June (date not yet set).
DAKT: Looking for a possible announcement with its June 1 board meeting.
DE: Forecast 5-16-06
DO: Forecast for the 5-22-06 shareholder meeting.
ESI: Researching the date.
GG: Forecast 5-15-06. Declaring dividends each month thus far in 2006
LCAV: Researching split date
LUK: Researching date.
PCU: Researching the next date
PLCE: Forecast 5-18-06 or with the shareholder meeting on 6-22-06.
POT: Researching the date
SNDK: Researching the date.
TSCO: Forecast mid-July
WCN: Forecast 5-25-06
WSM: Researching date
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/13/2006
ATK (Alliant Techsystems--$81.89; -1.12; optionable): Aerospace & defense products. No announcement with earnings on 5-5-06. Researching the next date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 5-9-02 at $108. Before that a 3:2 split on 8-8-01 at $96.20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atk.html
STATUS: Breakout test. ATK gapped higher a week back on strong earnings, continuing its move out of a 19 week flat base that formed roughly using the 50 day EMA (79.29) as support. Solid 5 to 3 accumulation in the lateral move shows solid buying, setting up the breakout. It blasted higher in mid-April and then really got a move on in March, gapping higher on strong earnings. Used last week to test the move, coming back on lower volume. Volume did spike up Friday, but ATK used that to fill the gap, still holding above the 18 day EMA (81.46) on the close. Solid pattern, solid breakout, solid earnings, solid test. May come back a bit more to fully test the 18 day EMA. Just want to catch it as it holds and starts back up.
Volume: 339.1K Avg Volume: 266.583K
BUY POINT: $82.97 Volume=400K Target=$95.50 Stop=$81.21
POSITION: ATK HP - Aug. $80c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/atk.html
Play Date: 05/13/2006
CWTR (Coldwater Creek--$28.50; -0.87; optionable): Apparel stores, catalog sales. Forecast to announce a split 5-24-06.
BACKGROUND: A frequent splitter though probably early for the next split. Last split 3:2 on 12-12-05 at $33.50. Before that on 2-14-05 at $26.90. Like these as they build up shares for holding onto a good stock.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cwtr.html
After Hours: $28.50
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. CWTR gapped higher in early March on strong earnings and rallied up the 18 day EMA (29.38) since. Last week it moved laterally in a tight range but the started to fade Thursday and again Friday. Volume remained below average, however, and Friday it reached down toward the 50 day EMA (27.29) intraday and rebounded to recoup some losses on the close. Looking for this periodic test of the move higher to rebound and give us a good buy point to start our new play on this perennial leader.
Volume: 933.619K Avg Volume: 1.207M
BUY POINT: $29.48 Volume=1.5M Target=$35.50 Stop=$27.50
POSITION: UCJ JF - Oct. $30c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cwtr.html
Play Date: 05/13/2006
RAVN (Raven Indus.--$39.28; -0.18; no options): Jack of all trades: global positioning, plastic sheeting for construction, avionics, communications, environmental controls. Forecast to announce a split 5-18-06
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 8-20-04 at $39.20. Two prior splits in addition to the last one.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/ravn.html
After Hours: $39.45
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Broke out in February from a 3.5 month base, rallying up the 18 day EMA through the end of April and beginning of March. It made a small double top there and then faded the past week to test the 50 day EMA (38.59) intraday Friday and then bouncing back on strong volume. That shows buyers moving in at that support. The 50 day EMA is a periodic test of that level after a breakout and solid run higher. This is an unheralded but perennially strong stock. This test of the 50 day sets up the next run higher.
Volume: 119.035K Avg Volume: 85K
BUY POINT: $40.55 Volume=125K Target=$48.70 Stop=$38.55
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ravn.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/11/2006
DE (Deere & Co.--$89.63; +1.01; optionable): Farm and construction machinery. Forecast 5-16-06.
BACKGROUND: No splits in Deere's history.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/de.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Nice reach lower below the 18 day EMA (88.31) Friday, then a high volume rebound to close positive. Great shakeout, and the buying on volume shows buyers stepped back in. Ready to move in as DE continues to run, preferably like a deer, higher. To recap: DE has run well and others in its sector are announcing splits. It rallied well in April and has spent the past two weeks moving laterally in a tight range, setting up the next move higher. Thursday it got the dips with the market, but held above the 18 day EMA on the close. Looking for it to rebound off this test ahead of the coming earnings.
Volume: 3.796M Avg Volume: 2.037M
BUY POINT: $89.65 Volume=2.5M Target=$103.95 Stop=$88.04
POSITION: DE IR - Sept. $90c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/de.html
Play Date: 05/09/2006
SNDK (Sandisk--$61.24; -0.41; optionable): Semiconductor, flash memory. Researching date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split $69.60 on 1-21-04.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sndk.html
After Hours: $61.30
STATUS: Ascending base. SNDK sold back all week, but at the close Friday it held was holding just over the 50 day EMA (60.88), showing a nice tight doji on the candlestick chart. The pullback was on lower, below average volume. It continues to hold in its lateral move of the past 6 weeks. That combination suggests it is going higher this week. Excellent relative strength the past week. Nice. To recap: Working in a 6 week lateral move above the 50 day EMA, part of a 16 week cup base, ready to come off the bottom and form the right side of the pattern. That move can make us some solid coin because SNDK is setting up a pattern that delivers a strong break higher. Like the volume and looking for it to continue as SNDK clears the highs in the 5 week range.
Volume: 7.721M Avg Volume: 11.042M
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Through the 10 day EMA at 62.28; breakout: $65.88 Volume=17M Target=$79.00 Stop=$62.38
POSITION: SWF JU - Oct. $67.50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sndk.html
Play Date: 05/11/2006
WCN (Waste Connections--$39.39; -0.34; optionable): Waste management. Forecast 5-25-06 at 10:00PT with its annual shareholder meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 5-26-04 at $41.80.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wcn.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Holding up very well, undercutting the 18 day EMA (39.35) Friday but then recovering to hold that level on the close. Nice test and hold at near support. Good point to make a higher low and propel it to the breakout. Like its strength in a crappy market to end last week. To recap: Short but nice pattern over the 50 day EMA (38.68) is consolidating the breakout move form a big 9 month base in March. Forming the handle to the base, coming back to tap the 18 day EMA on the low and rebounding to cut the losses. Money flow is running higher ahead of price. Just want to see the volume run higher as WCN moves to a new all-time high.
Volume: 429.8K Avg Volume: 527.702K
BUY POINT: $40.22 Volume=600K Target=$46.95 Stop=$39.00
POSITION: WCN JH - Oct. $40c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wcn.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
stock split
|
