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stock split, stock research
Begin Part 4 of 4
PRE-SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:
Watchlist:
PBG ($44.45; -0.12): Splits 2:1 effective 12-5-01. Drifted down but appears to have support at 44, where it has held for a few sessions. A lot of overhead resistance at 45-46, and with the split Wednesday, we are focusing elsewhere.
FLO ($41.86; -0.13): Splits 3:2 1-3-01. Took a nasty fall Tuesday but promptly turned back around and it now back over the 10 day MVA (41.72). Volume has been low on the move back up, however, and prospects do not look great for a strong move up at the moment, but we have time. The aggressive can look at a buy point of 42.87 on above average volume (65,700; Friday 61,200), with stock and/or $40 calls to buy (FLO AH).
VAR ($69.00; +0.10): Splits 2:1 on or about January 16. The recent selling through the short-term MVA's isn't good, but VAR seems to have caught support at the 50 day (68.67). It has now tested down toward the 200 day (67.59) and pulled up to close over 50 day twice. Quite a bit of support here, and the selling volume may be abating (down sharply Friday to 215,800, average 238,200). We will see if it can hold, but it could be a bit before we have something to the upside.
Plays:
EPIQ (Epiq Systems--$29.26; -0.31; optionable): Splits 3:2 effective December 3.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/epiq.html
STATUS: Closed the week with a doji under resistance. EPIQ dropped off the table, taking out its 50 day MVA (30.28), and gapping down through our put buy point mid-week. It made a quick, albeit weak, relief bounce up to the 50 day and hit our buy point (29) for additional put positions Friday, but then pulled up to close with a loose doji under that resistance, moving on increased, above average volume of 246,100 (average 168,300). Still looking for stronger selling to resume, and still riding positions for a post-split drop. On a solid move back through 28 we can look at new post-split positions with a target of the 200 day MVA (24.48).
PLAY: On a move below 28 on continued strong volume (up Friday to 246,100, average 168,300), with January $35 puts to buy (FQU MG).
PSC (Philadelphia Suburban--$29.97; -0.03; no options): Water utility. Splits 5:4 effective 12-3-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/psc.html
STATUS: High volume doji Friday. Got the breakout Monday with a huge volume surge, and since then PSC has pulled back but held comfortably over its prior breakout (29.64) and 10 day MVA (29.72). Friday the stock tested down to the 10 day before pulling up to close with a tight doji as volume increased sharply to 124,000 (average 81,900). A nice looking pullback, so we will see if it can hold the pattern through the Monday split. Money flow and relative strength remain excellent.
PLAY: A move over 30.39 (24.31 post split) on continued strong volume. Stop: 29 (23.20 post split).
CACI (Caci International--$73.97; -0.22; optionable): Technical services. Splits 2:1 effective 12-7-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/caci.html
STATUS: Topping signs? The very solid Tuesday move may be over for now. Wednesday CACI tapped up to 75.36, but pulled back to close, followed by a weaker push up that didn't quite make that high Thursday. The stock closed the week with a doji on significantly higher volume of 467,100 (average 307,400), so we are watching for a dip back here, and are ready to take profits on a move back down. We will look at recent highs with the 10 day MVA at 70.45 to hold on the drop, and see if CACI gives us another move before the split. For a move from here (unlikely, but possible) we will see if it can gain strength and take out Tuesday's high.
PLAY: After a pullback holds support, a stronger move up with stock and/or January $70 calls to buy (KQL AN - low open interest). Stop: just below the 10 day MVA, following up to protect profits.
CBH ($74.75; -0.50): Splits 2:1 effective 12-19-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbh.html
STATUS: Still holding the rather precarious handle. CBH tested down to the 18 day (74.47) Friday as volume increased slightly to 90,800 (average 152,800). It could still go either way, and we are still wary of a drop back toward the 50 day (72.91), but with the support holding we could get a quick move up and a breakout from the handle. Target: 83.
PLAY: 75.86 on volume of 230,000, with stock and/or January (very low open interest currently) or March $70 calls to buy (CBH AN or CBH CN).
KIM (Kimco Realty--$49.60; -0.40; no options): REIT. Splits 3:2 effective 12-24-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kim.html
STATUS: KIM is in a large ascending wedge, moving between pattern highs near 50.20 and the short-term MVA's (10 day at 49.70). The stock pulled back in the pattern Friday, but held the 18 day at 49.53 as volume increased slightly, but remained below average at 95,600 (average 169,100). Looking for the pattern to continue to hold while we wait for strength on a breakout. Target: 60.
PLAY: 50.32 on volume of 230,000. Stop: 48.
HRH (Hib Rogal--$59.43; -1.47; no options): Insurance brokers. Splits 2:1 eff. 1-2-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hrh.html
STATUS: Stronger selling Friday. HRH broke out Monday (hitting 62.75), on sharply increased, but still below average volume, and quickly tested the move. The test was looking good as it hovered briefly at the 10 day MVA (60) as volume fell, and we were looking for the move up to resume, but HRH may have other ideas. The stock fell back to the 18 day (59.29) as volume increased sharply to 128,400 (average 113,900). HRH has made a great run from the September lows near 41, so it may need to take a breather, either here or at the former consolidation lows near 58. After proving that it can hold support, we can look for strength on a pre-split run. We have time. Target: 66.
PLAY: After catching support, a strong move over 60.50 on above average volume. Stock only. Stop: 57.75.
CONTINUING CANDIDATES REMAINING PLAYS: When splits are not announced, we will keep the best split prospects on the report rather than continue to carry all of them in case there is a an unexpected announcement. We will continue to monitor the stocks that are trimmed and add them again when we ascertain a revised split announcement date.
Watchlist:
ACS ($93.38; -1.87): Closed Friday near the recent lows, and gave up the 18 day (93.85) and the early November high, which could be a trigger for stops. It could need to visit the 50 day (90.36) again, but if it holds on (rather low volume selling) we are still looking for more of a pattern to form up before we consider new positions.
FLIR ($40.15; -1.84): Pulled up from the recent low of 33.75, and made a weak move over the short-term MVA's (18 day at 41.95), but couldn't hold the move and tested back through the 50 day (40.59) Friday. The recent price/volume action hasn't been great and we are watching carefully here. We need to strength on a recovery to consider upside positions, but stronger selling (below average Friday) could trigger a quick put play.
JEC ($68.95; -1.75): Tried to mount a move up Friday, hitting 71.79 but could not hold on and fell back through support towards the 50 day (67.85) as volume increased to 203,000 (average 204,100). From here we will see if we get a another test of the 50 day to set up another try at a better move.
PEP ($48.63; +0.10): Still holding the 50 day (48.54) after recent drop from 50 (drop preceded by a weak volume move up). Once again, it traded in a wide range Friday, and again tapped recent intraday support at 48, as volume increased slightly to 4.77 million (average 5.12 million). Still not much here to set up a play yet.
RMD ($58.50; -0.38): RMD has pulled up over the short-term MVA's (18 day at 57.46) but is creeping along on low volume (slightly up Friday at 141,100, average 219,800), and closed the week with a small loss. We may still see a low volume dip to the 18 day, but for new or additional positions we will need to see it clear its most recent high at 59.90 on minimum volume of 300,000. Stock and/or January $55 calls to buy (RMD AK).
SLM ($85.07; -0.73): SLM has given up the short-term MVA's (18 day at 85.91), Friday falling back toward the 50 day at 48.54. We will see if it holds that level, to set up another move, as volume has not been strong on the selling (below average Friday) as it came off this month's double tops.
THC ($60.00; +0.60): Made a very solid move up last week, but quickly pulled back to the 50 day (58.16). Now THC is trying to move up from there, but the gains are coming on weak volume (Friday falling to 1.18 million, average 2.09 million), so it might not be ready to blast up again jut yet. Moving the aggressive buy point to a move over the recent high (61.21) on above average volume, with stock and/or February $55 calls to buy (THC BK).
Plays:
APPB (Applebee's--$33.34; +0.27; optionable): Leisure: Restaurants
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/appb.html
STATUS: Breakout attempt Friday fell short. APPB has been trying to breakout from a ragged double bottom with handle, but the price/volume action has been poor. Monday's weak move failed, and we were watching to see if Thursday's low volume push would also stall. We did get a volume spike Friday (up to 505,500, average 417,500), but after hitting 33.70 (high 33.91), APPB fell way back to close. A common candlestick pattern Friday, so we will see if it can try another surge or if it will make a further pullback from here. With the recent weak action we are wary of a trip to the 50 day MVA (31.24). For positions from here we will need to see a solid breakout. Target on a breakout: 40
BUY POINT: A move over the high of 33.91 with continued minimum volume of 620,000. Stop: 32.50.
POSITION: Stock and/or February $30 calls to buy (AQB BF; under 100 open interests thus far).
BJ (BJ Wholesale--$45.00; +0.80; optionable): Retail - Discount
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bj.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 2-4-99 at a stock price of $44. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-24-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for 2:1 split.
STATUS: You have to keep some puts in your arsenal. Closed the week with a doji under support. BJ fell out of its v-shaped cup with handle earlier this month, eventually taking a hard drop through the 200 day (49) and falling to a low of 42.97. Since then it has made a weaker push up but ran into resistance and began bouncing down the 10 day MVA (45.87). After hitting our aggressive buy point for put positions Thursday, BJ tested up to the 10 day Friday before pulling way back to close in a loose doji as volume increased slightly to 1.19 million (average 780,200). With the close well off the high, we will see if the downward momentum resumes, and can still look at additional positions on a strong move down through the Thursday low. Our initial target was 42, but with the strong volume we are now eyeing additional positions for a drop down to 40 (September low 39.25).
BUY POINT: A drop through 43.85 on continued strong selling volume.
POSITION: January $50 puts (BJ MJ).
STJ (St. Jude Medical--$74.50; +0.42): Health Services.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stj.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that STJ has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-17-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Still holding the pattern, but the action is not great. After making a terrific move out of a small double bottom last week (spurred by good product news and an upgrade), STJ has pulled into a handle-type consolidation, and is holding over the 10 day MVA (73.06), but wedging up slightly, and we would prefer handles to drift down along its lows. Friday STJ tested back to the 10 day before reversing itself and closing just over the recent closing highs as volume remained steady and below average at 504,900 (average 705,900). From here we are still looking for increased strength to spur a move past the recent intraday high of 74.92; however, we will be cautious with positions because of the handle and the fact that this is a rather short pattern (just over five weeks, and we like a minimum of seven). The stock has made a solid run up over the past 19 months, occasionally dipping back to the 200 day MVA (last time in September) between bounces along the 50 day. Target: 83.
BUY POINT: Breakout: 74.47 on volume of 1 million. Stop: 70.
POSITION: January $70 calls to buy (STJ AN).
POST SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:
Watchlist:
ATK ($78.80; -1.05): Split 3:2 on 9-10-01. After falling from its double tops and through the 50 day, ATK made a move back up but fell back from the convergence of the short-term & 50 day MVA (10 day at 80.62). It closed down Friday, but volume remained below average and decreased slightly. Still riding current positions toward the target of 75, but still wary of a stronger move back over the 18 day (82), which will trigger an exit of existing put positions.
BRO ($29.12; -1.44): Split 2:1 on 11-23-01. Sold back through support Friday (18 day at 29.78) on slightly higher volume of 138,700 (average 155,900). Not promising at this point, and we are dropping.
PDLI ($37.69; +0.18): Split 2:1 effective October 12. Broke out Monday, quickly pulled back to the 18 day (36.12) and is now trying to move back up on below average volume. PDLI has hit our aggressive buy point, but the weak volume was not what we wanted for positions. So now we are just watching it, waiting to see if we get above average volume to set up playable move, or if PDLI needs to take a longer breather. If we see above average volume (Friday 1.96 million, average 2.24 million) in a rally carry a move over the recent high of 39.39, we can still look at stock and/or February $32.50 calls to buy (PQI BZ). Stop: 35.75.
Plays:
AMHC (American Healthways; $33.10; +1.61; no options): Health Services. Split 3:2 effective 11-26-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amhc.html
STATUS: The breakout (from a 4-week pennant that held through Monday's split) continued Friday, but AMHC pulled well off the intraday high of 34.40 (initial target 35) to close as volume fell to 276,800 (average 129,700). Off of that pattern we may see more profit taking early next week. On a pullback we are looking for the stock to hold over the Thursday high of 31.51 and with a stronger move back up from there we can look at new or additional positions.
PLAY: Aggressive: After a lower volume pullback holds 31.50, a move back up on increased, above average volume, with stock. Stop: 29.30.
MIKE (Michael's--$30.05; +1.97): Split 2:1 effective November 27.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mike.html
STATUS: Solid move Friday! After briefly tested down to the 18 day MVA (28.30), MIKE closed the week with a very nice bounce up from that level, hitting an intraday high of 30.50 before pulling back a bit to close. MIKE had good numbers this week, spurring the move, which was on lower, but stll quite healthy volume of 1.10 million (average 606,100). It pulled back a bit to close, but still held the range of the recent highs. Looking for this momentum to continue, and with continued strength on a move over Friday's high the aggressive can look at additional positions. Target: 35. Moves to the NYSE December 12.
PLAY: Aggressive: A move over 30.50 on continued strong, above average volume, with January $27.50 calls to buy (IKQ AY).
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock split
stock research
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