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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 05/16/2006
BECN (Beacon Roofing Supply--$40.36; +0.66; optionable): Roofing, building materials. Splits 3:2 on 6-13-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/becn.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Set up a nice 10 week base along the 50 day EMA (38.42), sporting 3 to 2 accumulation. Gapped out of this base last week on strong trade on news of the excellent earnings. It came back to test during the selling, filling the gap but on some lower trade. Announced the split Tuesday, and we are looking for it to rebound on solid trade and follow its money higher.
Volume: 218.869K Avg Volume: 205.611K
BUY POINT: $40.85 Volume=250K Target=$47.00 Stop=$39.15
POSITION: QGQ GH - July $40c (57 delta) or QGQ JH - Oct. $40c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/becn.html
Play Date: 05/16/2006
GRMN (Garmin Ltd.--$93.27; +1.06; optionable): GPS devices. Splits 2:1 on December 15 if you can believe that.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/grmn.html
After Hours: $92.99
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. GRMN broke out in early March, moving out of a 5 month base formed along the 50 day EMA (85.13). Gapped higher early in the month on the stock split announcement and now has come back to test the move, filling the gap Monday on the intraday low. It rebounded to hold the 18 day EMA (92.05). Like the fill of the gap and the strong rebound; it shows buyers jumping back in as soon as it dipped. Ready to pick up more shares as GRMN continues higher on a jump in volume.
Volume: 630.82K Avg Volume: 1.229M
BUY POINT: $94.85 Volume=1.4M Target=$110.00 Stop=$91.89
POSITION: GQR JS - Oct. $95c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/grmn.html
Play Date: 05/16/2006
OII (Oceaneering Intl.--$69.27; +0.94; optionable): Oil & gas drilling. Splits 2:1 on 6-19-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oii.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Big gap higher in early May as OII blasted out of a 13 week base on tremendous volume. The move took OII to a new high but the selling did not leave it untouched. It also did not break it down. Instead, OII sold back, closing much of the gap up as it tapped the 18 day EMA (67.15) on the lows Monday and Tuesday, bouncing back to close. Nice test, holding the breakout unlike many stocks. Looking for continued solid trade as it moves through the buy point.
Volume: 639.3K Avg Volume: 373.085K
BUY POINT: $70.55 Volume=600K Target=$82.00 Stop=$67.00
POSITION: OII JN - Oct. $70c (57 delta) or OII GN - July $70c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/oii.html
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 05/16/2006
NTES (Netease.com--$23.00; +0.97; optionable): Chinese interactive internet
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntes.html
After Hours: $23.26
STATUS: Double bottom. NTES broke higher in February on strong volume, gapping out of a 5 month cup base. It rallied to 26 and then faded the past 7 weeks, consolidating that move and forming a new base. Nice double bottom with volume returning the past week as it moved up off the second leg that bottomed at 21. Strong volume Tuesday ahead of earnings, and a solid report after hours. Was up sharply, but faded as the after hours session wore on. Would prefer a modest start Wednesday and then a move through the buy point. Will have to see how the earnings are received, but it is set up well.
Volume: 6.711M Avg Volume: 2.918M
BUY POINT: $23.55 Volume=4.4M Target=$28.38 Stop=$21.95
POSITION: NQG IX - Sept. $22.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ntes.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
ANSS: Looking for an announcement with its shareholder meeting that will occur in late May or early June (date not yet set). Setting back up after the dip lower last week.
ATK: No announcement 5-5-06 but setting up nicely for the next move
CWTR: Forecast 5-24-06
DAKT: Looking for a possible announcement with its June 1 board meeting.
DE: Forecast 5-16-06. Some solid earnings but not getting much traction.
DO: Forecast for the 5-22-06 shareholder meeting.
ESI: Researching the date.
GG: Forecast 5-15-06. No split announcement but did announce another cash dividend
LCAV: Researching split date
LUK: Announced the split Tuesday.
PCU: Researching the next date. Trying to recover off the 50 day EMA with the rest of the metals
PLCE: Forecast 5-18-06 or with the shareholder meeting on 6-22-06.
POT: Researching the date
RAVN: Forecast 5-18-06
SNDK: Researching the date
TSCO: Forecast mid-July. Needs to set back up
WCN: Forecast 5-25-06
WSM: Researching date
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/16/2006
FDX (Federal Express--$115.43; -0.01; optionable): Air delivery. Forecast 6-21-06 with earnings
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 3-18-99 at $92. Took awhile, but it is back.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fdx.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. FDX broke out from an 11 month base in February, rallying through March and then forming the current ascending 8 week base, using the 50 day EMA (113.90) as support. Nice strong surge to start the month, moving on good volume. It faded to test during the recent selling, coming back tot eh 50 day EMA on lower, below average volume. Money flow continues higher even as the stock pulls back. Looking for a strong volume move to send it back up through the 10 day EMA (116.43) and give us the buy point.
Volume: 893.1K Avg Volume: 1.455M
BUY POINT: $116.85 Volume=2.2M Target=$134.00 Stop=$113.74
POSITION: FDX JC - Oct. $115c (57 delta) or FDX JD - Oct. $120c (47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fdx.html
Play Date: 05/16/2006
SHFL (Shuffle Master--$40.33; +1.59; optionable): Card shufflers, etc. Forecast in June. Researching to pinpoint the date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 12-9-04 at $44.30. Before that a 3:2 split on 3-17-04 at $42.20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/shfl.html
STATUS: Breakout. SHFL jumped on strong volume Tuesday, clearing a 7 week ascending base that formed after the March breakout and run from a 12 month base. It has bounced up the 18 day EMA (37.80) for the past 7 weeks, making the break higher Tuesday. Looking to start a position as it continues higher. Solid.
Volume: 1.354M Avg Volume: 869.731K
BUY POINT: $40.55 Volume=1M Target=$48.50 Stop=$38.50
POSITION: SFQ HH - Aug. $40c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/shfl.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/06/2006
LCAV (LCA-Vision--$56.51; +1.19; optionable): Laser vision centers. Announced earnings 4-25-06. Researching split date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 11-17-04 at $32.20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lcav.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Hanging in there after testing back late last week and threatening to break down. All it did, however, was test lower intraday Friday and Monday, filling much of the late April gap higher. Good recovery this week and still in the handle, ready to make the breakout. Just needs some volume. To recap: LCAV gapped higher two weeks back on very strong volume, rallying on strong earnings results. That move took it out of an 11 week cup base in one quick move. It has spent the past two weeks testing, a lateral move with a slight fade on low, below average volume. Even in the market selling volume remained under control. Positive accumulation in the base shows net buying as LCAV sets up for a new all-time high with a continuation of its breakout move.
Volume: 493.115K Avg Volume: 741.018K
BUY POINT: $57.98 Volume=1.1M Target=$69.50 Stop=$55.00
POSITION: JVQ IL - Sept. $60c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lcav.html
Play Date: 05/11/2006
WCN (Waste Connections--$39.95; -0.05; optionable): Waste management. Forecast 5-25-06 at 10:00PT with its annual shareholder meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 5-26-04 at $41.80.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wcn.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Big test lower to the 50 day EMA (38.78) intraday Monday, and then a rebound on solid trade, almost making the breakout. Nice quiet doji Tuesday, holding the 10 day EMA (39.64) on the low and rebounding. Looks ready, holding up well in the market selling. To recap: Short but nice pattern over the 50 day EMA is consolidating the breakout move form a big 9 month base in March. Forming the handle to the base, coming back to tap the 18 day EMA on the low and rebounding to cut the losses. Money flow is running higher ahead of price. Just want to see the volume run higher as WCN moves to a new all-time high.
Volume: 598.7K Avg Volume: 513.161K
BUY POINT: $40.22 Volume=600K Target=$46.95 Stop=$39.00
POSITION: WCN JH - Oct. $40c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wcn.html
CONTINUING PRE-SPLIT PLAYS
Play Date: 05/13/2006
HOC (Holly Corp.--$80.19; +3.46; optionable): Oil and gas refining. Splits 2:1 on 6-2-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hoc.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Gapped lower Monday, but held the 50 day EMA (75.38) on the low and rebounded to recoup some losses. Tuesday it was up again on lower but still above average volume. A nice little double bottom has formed over the 50 day, setting up for the pre-split run. Looks stronger after this test. To recap: Nice higher low at the 18 day EMA last week as the market sold, but this week it tested lower. Held the 50 day and bounced. Showing excellent relative strength versus the market and even many of the energy stocks. Strong run in March and April as HOC broke out. It peaked at 85 in April and then formed the current 5 week base, using the 50 day EMA as support. Nice test of the breakout, setting up the next run higher.
Volume: 557.4K Avg Volume: 462.848K
BUY POINT: $82.35 Volume=720K Target=$98.50 Stop=$79.00
POSITION: HOC IQ - Sept. $85c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hoc.html
Play Date: 05/15/2006
SHOO (Steven Madden--$50.87; +0.10; optionable): Footwear. Splits 3:2 on 5-26-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/shoo.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Nice doji at the 18 day EMA (50.12) Tuesday, showing decent volume once more. Nice test, ready to make the move. To recap: Big gap higher in April on raised guidance and then more on the early May earnings. It has since tested, coming back on lower volume to the 18 day EMA this week on the lows then bouncing back on stronger volume. Looks good on the test, setting up for the pre-split run.
Volume: 276.321K Avg Volume: 221.068K
BUY POINT: $51.88 Volume=332K Target=$62.00 Stop=$49.87
POSITION: SEU IJ - Sept. $50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/shoo.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS
Play Date: 05/10/2006
CELG (Celgene--$41.84; +1.39; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/celg.html
After Hours: $41.84
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Continues to hang on well, holding the 50 day EMA (39.87) on the Monday test lower and then bouncing Tuesday on stronger, above average volume. Nicely forming up for the next breakout, using this 7 week base over the 50 day as the launch pad. Positive accumulation and strong money flow. Looking for volume to continue as CELG moves through the buy point.
Volume: 4.367M Avg Volume: 3.528M
BUY POINT: $43.55 Volume=5M Target=$52.00 Stop=$40.88
POSITION: LQH JV - Oct. $42.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/celg.html
Play Date: 05/13/2006
PPDI (Pharmaceutical Product Dev.--$36.29; -0.36; optionable): Medial labs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/ppdi.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Modest gap higher Tuesday, but no volume. Trade faded back below average after three strong upside days. Good easy day of rest, setting up the next run in this move. May take another day, but want to be ready to move in when it resumes. To recap: PPDI spent the past 4 weeks easing back on lower volume to fill the gap higher from mid-April on strong earnings. It held near the 50 day EMA (34.97) and the lateral range from February and March. On Thursday and Friday when the market sold PPDI started higher on strong, above average volume. After filling the gap the buyers came right back in. Nice to see the strong upside volume in a weak market. Looking to move in this week as it clears the March high.
Volume: 561.426K Avg Volume: 623.471K
BUY POINT: New: 36.75 (orig. $36.22) Volume=924K Target=$42.96 Stop=$34.68
POSITION: PJQ JT - Oct. $35c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ppdi.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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