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trade stock, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: CHRW; CPO; LAB
Strong plays:
1) CYMI: Has held the 50 day EMA for three days as market sold.
2) FVE: Good price/volume action as it prepares for the breakout.
3) PFWD: Moving on strong volume.
4) FLSH: It is set up for the move
5) LRCX: Nice 50 day EMA test, holding this level this week as the market sold.
6) OII: Holding the 18 day EMA this week, refusing to sell off.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 05/17/2006
CYMI (Cymer--$48.73; -0.90; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cymi.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. CYMI was moving on solid volume to start May, trying to move past its mid-April high at 56. The selling caught it, and as with other stocks CYMI sold off. The action managed to fill the gap from April, holding the 50 day SMA (48.58) the past three sessions. Money flow remains strong even with this pullback. Want to see a good volume break higher through the buy point.
Volume: 1.152M Avg Volume: 964.4K
BUY POINT: $50.11 Volume=1.4M Target=$60.00 Stop=$48.44
POSITION: COG HU - Aug. $50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cymi.html
Play Date: 05/17/2006
COHR (Coherent--$34.55; -0.72; optionable): Lasers, precision optics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cohr.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Strong earnings sent COHR higher in late April, breaking it out from a 9 month cup with handle base It did not get much farther, however, before the recent selling started. It sold off as well, but volume was low and below average as it came back on the test, holding the 50 day EMA (34.74). Looking for volume to ramp up as COHR makes the break higher.
Volume: 221.004K Avg Volume: 342.137K
BUY POINT: $35.42 Volume=435K Target=$41.00 Stop=$33.95
POSITION: HRQ HG - Aug. $35c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cohr.html
Play Date: 05/17/2006
FVE (Five Star Quality Care--$11.00; +0.18; no options): Home health care
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fve.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. This neat little 10 week base formed using the 50 day EMA (10.07) as support, consolidating the early March break higher and run from 8 to 12. Needed a breather, and a good pattern has formed, setting up the next run to a new all-time high (a new issue in 2002). Money flow is surging higher ahead of price, and relative strength is ready for the breakout. Solid volume this week.
Volume: 496.8K Avg Volume: 372.679K
BUY POINT: $11.14 Volume=559K Target=$13.65 Stop=$10.36
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/fve.html
Play Date: 05/17/2006
GISX (Global Imaging Systems--$39.54; +0.18; optionable): Office technology solutions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gisx.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. GISX broke out from a 22 week cup with handle to start May, moving higher on strong volume. Nice pattern that used the 50 day EMA (37.81) as support, showing the big money staying with it, using the base to accumulation shares. Positive accumulation. Relative strength is moving higher this week even as GISX makes a modest pullback. Excellent action in the selling market, using the selling to test the 18 day EMA (38.91) before making the next move higher.
Volume: 144.286K Avg Volume: 95K
BUY POINT: $40.11 Volume=150K Target=$47.95 Stop=$38.72
POSITION: QHU HH - Aug. $40c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gisx.html
Play Date: 05/17/2006
PFWD (Phase Forward--$12.52; +0.32; no options): Integrated enterprise-level software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pfwd.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Taking another run at PFWD as it comes off its 50 day EMA (11.50) test on strong, above average volume. Big surge in April but then got caught in this selling. Found support at the 50 day, and that holds the breakout from its 6 month cup base. Money flow is racing higher ahead of the stock as PFWD starts the next move to a new all time high. Great show of strength in a weak market.
Volume: 361.591K Avg Volume: 200.31K
BUY POINT: $12.75 Volume=300K Target=$15.50 Stop=$12.04
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pfwd.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Play Date: 05/10/2006
AQNT (Aquantive--$26.25; -0.50; optionable): Digital marketing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aqnt.html
After Hours: $26.90
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. AQNT announced an acquisition and suffered a modest setback Wednesday, but it was back up after hours. Very good action in the market weakness, making a tap at the 50 day SMA (24.67) on the Monday low and then rebounding. The 19 week base looks just about ready to yield a breakout. Used the 50 day EMA (25.26) as rough support. Money flow continues to scream higher. Just being patien but it looks about ready to make the move.
Volume: 1.17M Avg Volume: 1.499M
BUY POINT: $28.15 Volume=1.8M Target=$33.85 Stop=$26.18
POSITION: QBT IE - Sept. $25c (77 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/aqnt.html
Play Date: 05/13/2006
FLSH (M-Systems Flash Disk--$34.71; -0.19; optionable): Semiconductor flash storage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flsh.html
After Hours: $34.83
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice doji at the 18 day EMA (34.21) Wednesday, tapping that support on the low and rebounding for a modest loss. Excellent formation of the handle, using the market selling to form up for the breakout. Nice. To recap: FLSH used the selling last week to come back to near support and form a handle to its 18 week base. Roughly used the 200 day SMA (29.83) as support for the lows, a sign of institutional support. Accumulation is a solid 6 to 3, showing plenty of buying. Nice set up, ready for a 5.5 year high.
Volume: 1.038M Avg Volume: 1.296M
BUY POINT: $36.57 Volume=1.9M Target=$43.95 Stop=$35.00
POSITION: FFU JG - Oct. $35c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/flsh.html
Play Date: 05/13/2006
LMNX (Luminex--$15.12; -0.58; no options): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lmnx.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. After the strong early May surge out of the 12 month ascending base that formed over the 50 day EMA (14.85), LMNX sold with the market the past two weeks, coming back to the 50 day EMA on the Wednesday low and then rebounding for a modest loss. Nice breakout, good test during the market selling, and now ready to move again. Positive accumulation. Looking for the run higher.
Volume: 217.733K Avg Volume: 173.733K
BUY POINT: $15.95 Volume=250K Target=$20.00 Stop=$14.83
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lmnx.html
Play Date: 05/16/2006
LRCX (Lam Research--$47.45; -1.03; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lrcx.html
After Hours: $47.47
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. LRCX rallied to start May with a nice high volume break higher, moving out of a 13 week cup with handle base that formed over the 50 day EMA (46.89). It got caught in the selling, but most of the downside was on light to below average volume, and unlike many stocks, the pullback did not wreck its pattern. Volume was up Tuesday as LRCX showed a nice hammer doji at the 50 day. Want to see continued rising volume as LRCX moves through the buy point.
Volume: 3.175M Avg Volume: 3.151M
BUY POINT: $48.57 Volume=4M Target=$58.65 Stop=$46.55
POSITION: LMQ IJ - Sept. $50c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lrcx.html
Play Date: 05/16/2006
OII (Oceaneering Intl.--$68.46; -0.81; optionable): Oil & gas drilling. Splits 2:1 on 6-19-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oii.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Held at the 18 day EMA (67.29) Wednesday as volume remained strong. Unlike many energy stocks, OII is not selling off, holding near support and preparing for the rebound. To recap: Big gap higher in early May as OII blasted out of a 13 week base on tremendous volume. The move took OII to a new high but the selling did not leave it untouched. It also did not break it down. Instead, OII sold back, closing much of the gap up as it tapped the 18 day EMA on the lows Monday and Tuesday, bouncing back to close. Nice test, holding the breakout unlike many stocks. Looking for continued solid trade as it moves through the buy point.
Volume: 666.7K Avg Volume: 373.085K
BUY POINT: $70.55 Volume=600K Target=$82.00 Stop=$67.00
POSITION: OII JN - Oct. $70c (57 delta) or OII GN - July $70c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/oii.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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