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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 05/20/2006
CLB (Core Labs--$56.80; 0.00; no options): Oil and gas service company. Splits 2:1 on 7-10-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/clb.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Broke out from a 3 month ascending base to start April and rallied nicely up the 10 day EMA (60.19). After that run it needed a rest and the market selling and weakness in energy gave it good opportunity to work off some froth. The selling volume was not huge, indicating no heavy selling on the pullback to the 50 day EMA (55.83). Friday a nice doji at that level that reached down to the 50 day SMA (54.48) on the low and rebounded for a positive close on some rising, solid volume. Spent a week making this test and now looks set to rebound toward the prior highs, giving us a nice pre-split run.
Volume: 234.5K Avg Volume: 213.117K
BUY POINT: $57.48 Volume=300K Target=$68.95 Stop=$54.45
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/clb.html
Play Date: 05/20/2006
CLDN (Celadon Group--$26.46; 0.00; no options): Air delivery and freight. Splits 3:2 on 6-16-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cldn.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Another strong stock testing its 50 day EMA, setting up the next move. CLDN just split in February, formed an 8 week double bottom with handle base, and then broke out for the next move, just what a strong stock will do. It rallied to 30 on the run and then in the market selling it faded back to the 50 day EMA (25.92) to end the week on below average volume. Have to like that as it shows no heavy selling, no dumping of shares. That means when this test is over those buyers that held it will be buying into it once more. That is the move we want to take part in. As CLDN starts back up on volume we will be ready to move in.
Volume: 94.08K Avg Volume: 223.375K
BUY POINT: $27.05 Volume=250K Target=$32.50 Stop=$25.72
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cldn.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
ANSS: Looking for an announcement with its shareholder meeting that will occur in late May or early June (date not yet set). Well, it could not hold the 50 day EMA. We will see if it can set back up.
CWTR: Forecast 5-24-06.
DAKT: May get the announcement 5-24-06 with earnings. Looking for a possible announcement with its June 1 board meeting.
DO: Forecast for the 5-22-06 shareholder meeting. Has some work to do and it is not really in position to buy for the potential announcement.
ESI: Researching the date.
FDX: Forecast 6-21-06. Dove through the 50 day EMA. Trying to hold near 110 but still dicey after last week's dive.
LCAV: Researching split date
PLCE: Looking at the shareholder meeting on 6-22-06.
POT: Researching the date
SHFL: Forecast in June. Gapped lower Friday as downgraded
SNDK: Researching the date
TRMB: Researching the potential split date
TSCO: Forecast mid-July. Needs to set back up
WCN: Forecast 5-25-06
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
We have some wildcards here, i.e. some strong leadership stocks that have no split history or are not right at a split point but are in great position to make us some great money.
Play Date: 05/20/2006
BA (Boeing--$84.61; 0.00; optionable): Aerospace/defense.
BACKGROUND: BA has no splits in its history, but like the opening the recent selling is giving.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/ba.html
After Hours: $84.98
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Breakout in early March and a run up to early May, using the 18 day EMA (85.30) as support. Strong stock with a strong run. The selling the past two weeks brought it back to support at the 50 day EMA (82.20); after a breakout and run up the 18 day a strong leader will come back to the 50 day and then rebound on volume to continue the run. Friday volume jumped, higher than any in the selling, and BA jumped off of the 50 day. Just what the doctor ordered. Looking to move in as it moves through the 10 day EMA on volume.
Volume: 5.508M Avg Volume: 3.352M
BUY POINT: $85.55 Volume=5M Target=$99.00 Stop=$82.00
POSITION: BA HQ - Aug. $85c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ba.html
Play Date: 05/20/2006
FTI (FMC Technologies--$62.78; 0.00; optionable): Sub-sea & other production facilities for energy industry; food processing equipment for juice industry; etc.
BACKGROUND: No splits in FTI's history, but several in its sector are announcing splits at this level.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fti.html
STATUS: Test breakout. FTI exploded higher 2 weeks back, making the definitive move on its breakout run that started mid-April as it moved out of an 11 week ascending base. The big surge this month was on a strong earnings report. This fade is testing that move, and we like how it has come back on mostly lower volume. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the base (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows the kind of buying that sets up the run higher. Friday FTI tapped the 18 day EMA (61.91) on the low and rebounded on a strong shot of volume. Not many stocks in this sector are holding their 18 day EMA right now. This is the kind of strength you want to see, and we are ready to move in as FTI starts back up on continued solid volume.
Volume: 1.222M Avg Volume: 719.402K
BUY POINT: $63.72 Volume=1M Target=$76.00 Stop=$61.71
POSITION: FTL JL - Oct. $60c (60 delta) or FTL JM - Oct. $65c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fti.html
Play Date: 05/20/2006
ITRI (Itron--$64.96; 0.00; optionable): Hardware & software for data collection, forecasting, etc. related to the electric, gas, water utilities.
BACKGROUND: No splits in ITRI's history, but excellent position and at the price many are announcing.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/itri.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Strong market leader that broke out from a 7 month base in February and rallying up the 18 day EMA (66.84) through early May. After that breakout and run it needed a breather down to the 50 day EMA (63.52), the usual point a stock holds after the breakout and run. A strong stock will pick up the run from there. After a week moving laterally on the 50 day, ITRI showed some solid volume Friday with a big hammer doji. Looks just about ready to resume the move higher and follow the money flow back up once again.
Volume: 455.192K Avg Volume: 432.945K
BUY POINT: $66.85 Volume=550K Target=$79.95 Stop=$64.88
POSITION: IUP HM - Aug. $65c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/itri.html
Play Date: 05/20/2006
DAKT (Daktronics--$39.48; 0.00; optionable): Scoreboards, etc. Forecast 5-24-06.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 5-24-2001 at $29.20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dakt.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Hard to believe; another stock testing its 50 day EMA (38.69). DAKT got some of the dips last week and we decided to see if it would hold support or tank with other sectors. It ended up hold the 50 day, tapping that level Friday and then rebounding for a modest gain. Volume rose to back just above average, a good sign on the rebound. Ready to move in as DAKT continues the rebound this week on further strong volume.
Volume: 146.952K Avg Volume: 144.932K
BUY POINT: $40.50 Volume=217K Target=$48.72 Stop=$38.65
POSITION: QKC JH - Oct. $40c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dakt.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/13/2006
CWTR (Coldwater Creek--$28.83; 0.00; optionable): Apparel stores. Forecast to announce 5-24-06
BACKGROUND: A frequent splitter though probably early for the next split. Last split 3:2 on 12-12-05 at $33.50. Before that on 2-14-05 at $26.90. Like these as they build up shares for holding onto a good stock.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cwtr.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Forecast this week, and Friday was starting to look a bit better. It sold back to the 50 day EMA (27.47) during the market selling, but held that level. Friday it bounced on rising, average trade, a good indication heading into this week and the forecast split announcement. Strong money flow is leading higher, and relative strength is ready to breakout ahead of price, a good indication the stock will follow. Looking for continued good volume as CWTR moves higher to give us the entry point
Volume: 1.12M Avg Volume: 1.234M
BUY POINT: $29.48 Volume=1.5M Target=$35.50 Stop=$27.50
POSITION: UCJ JF - Oct. $30c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cwtr.html
Play Date: 05/17/2006
LRCX (Lam Research--$47.61; 0.00; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lrcx.html
After Hours: $47.61
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Volume jumped back up to average Friday as LRCX tested the 50 day EMA (46.91) and rallied to post a nice gain. Looks like the selling is ending, but we need to see more on Monday. Chip leader looking just about ready. To recap: LRCX rallied to start May with a nice high volume break higher, moving out of a 13 week cup with handle base that formed over the 50 day EMA. It got caught in the selling, but most of the downside was on light to below average volume, and unlike many stocks, the pullback did not wreck its pattern. Volume was up Tuesday as LRCX showed a nice hammer doji at the 50 day. Want to see continued rising volume as LRCX moves through the buy point.
Volume: 3.104M Avg Volume: 3.101M
BUY POINT: $48.57 Volume=4M Target=$58.65 Stop=$46.55
POSITION: LMQ IJ - Sept. $50c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lrcx.html
Play Date: 05/09/2006
SNDK (Sandisk--$62.49; 0.00; optionable): Semiconductor, flash memory. Researching date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split $69.60 on 1-21-04.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sndk.html
After Hours: $62.67
STATUS: Ascending base. Still working laterally along the 50 day EMA (61.03) with the range tightening up; that often precedes a break higher. This is part of a 16 week cup base, ready to come off the bottom and form the right side of the pattern. That move can make us some solid coin because SNDK is setting up a pattern that delivers a strong break higher. Like the volume and looking for it to continue as SNDK clears the highs in the 5 week range.
Volume: 9.579M Avg Volume: 11.061M
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $63.55; Breakout: $65.88 Volume=17M Target=$79.00 Stop=$62.38
POSITION: SWF JU - Oct. $67.50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sndk.html
CONTINUING PRE-SPLIT PLAYS
Play Date: 05/13/2006
HOC (Holly Corp.--$77.86; 0.00; optionable): Oil and gas refining. Splits 2:1 on 6-2-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hoc.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Similar to other energy stocks, HOC tested the 50 day EMA (75.68), undercutting that level on the low and rebounding to close positive on a strong shot of above average volume. That reach lower and rebound looks like the final shakeout in the 5 week pullback. Trying to set up a double bottom over 75.
Volume: 693.7K Avg Volume: 463.195K
BUY POINT: $82.35 Volume=720K Target=$98.50 Stop=$79.00
POSITION: HOC IQ - Sept. $85c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hoc.html
Play Date: 05/18/2006
ITW (Illinois Took Works--$99.95; 0.00; optionable): Diversified machinery. Splits 2:1 on 5-26-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/itw.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Another doji on the candlestick chart at the 50 day EMA (99.17) as volume bounced back above average. Has filled the gap from mid-April and now is ready to rebound. To recap: ITW broke out from a 16 month base in early March, surging higher on through early May. It set up another short 5 week consolidation on the way and then broke higher. During the market selling it pulled back as well, but it held the 50 day EMA to end last week, sitting right on top of that 5 week lateral consolidation.
Volume: 1.581M Avg Volume: 1.396M
BUY POINT: $100.05 Volume=1.5M Target=$115.00 Stop=$98.75
POSITION: ITW IT - Sept. $100c (55 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/itw.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS
Play Date: 05/18/2006
AMX (America Movil--$36.24; 0.00; optionable): Wireless telecom services in Latin America
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amx.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Big reach below the 50 day EMA (36.09) and then rebounding on above average volume Friday to close flat. Nice pullback, good shakeout Friday, and now looks ready. To recap: AMX is setting up another buy point with this nice test. It broke out from a 15 week flat trading range in late April and rallied to 41.25 on the move. After that run the market selling started and AMX sold back, testing that breakout and run. It has fully tested the move, coming back to the 50 day EMA and the top of the base at the same level. Nice pattern that used the 50 day EMA as support as it formed. After this test we are looking for AMX to rebound on volume.
Volume: 4.563M Avg Volume: 3.584M
BUY POINT: $36.88 Volume=5M Target=$44.00 Stop=$35.44
POSITION: AMX HG - Aug. $35c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/amx.html
Play Date: 05/13/2006
PPDI (Pharmaceutical Product Dev.--$36.34; 0.00; optionable): Medial labs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/ppdi.html
After Hours: $36.26
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Nice hammer doji Friday tapping the 50 day EMA (35.08) on the low and rebounding for a gain. No volume, but there was strong volume two weeks back and with this rebound we are looking for it to come back in. Solid. To recap: PPDI spent the past 5 weeks easing back on lower volume to fill the gap higher from mid-April on strong earnings. It held near the 50 day EMA and the lateral range from February and March. Two weeks back when the market sold on Thursday and Friday, PPDI started higher on strong, above average volume. It stalled last week, but again held key support at the 50 day EMA. After filling the gap the buyers came right back in. Nice to see the strong upside volume in a weak market. After this second test it is ready.
Volume: 534.85K Avg Volume: 619.441K
BUY POINT: New: 36.75 (orig. $36.22) Volume=924K Target=$42.96 Stop=$34.68
POSITION: PJQ JT - Oct. $35c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ppdi.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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