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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ICE; NTRI; PFWD; PRFT; CHRW; CPO; LAB
Strong plays:
1) CTXS: A leader ready to rebound
2) PKE: Volume bouncing Friday as it bounces off the 50 day EMA test
3) WFT: Also set up for a nice bounce off the 50 day EMA test.
4) AMX: Nice shakeout Friday.
5) FLSH: Starting the move.
6) GISX: Excellent pullback action.
7) VARI: Price is starting the move and just needs a bit of volume.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 05/20/2006
BMRN (Biomarin Pharmaceuticals--$12.63; 0.00; optionable): Biotech
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bmrn.html
STATUS: Double bottom. BMRN is trying to form the second leg of a 9 week double bottom base that formed roughly around the 50 day EMA (12.47), setting up for the breakout to take it to a 3 year high. Outstanding 5 to 0 accumulation in the base (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume) shows all buying as BMRN consolidates. Money flow is solid, turning higher the past week even as BMRN tested lower before bouncing Friday. Looking for BMRN to clear the 'hump' in the pattern; that is the breakout point for this kind of pattern.
Volume: 1.206M Avg Volume: 1.321M
BUY POINT: $13.50 Volume=2M Target=$16.25 Stop=$12.45
POSITION: NUR JV - Oct. $12.50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bmrn.html
Play Date: 05/20/2006
CTXS (Citrix Systems--$39.95; 0.00; optionable): On demand information access software, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctxs.html
After Hours: $40.54
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA CTXS made us some great coin this year, after the strong run up through early May it needed a breather. The market selling came along and pushed it back to the 50 day EMA (38.62). We said we were going to let it make the test and then move back in. It looks to have done that, undercutting the 50 day EMA intraday on Friday and then rebounding for a positive close on the best volume in a month. A strong market leader this one, and we are looking for CTXS to make us some more scratch as it rebounds off the 50 day.
Volume: 4.476M Avg Volume: 2.656M
BUY POINT: $40.88 Volume=4M Target=$49.00 Stop=$38.55
POSITION: XSQ IH - Sept. $40c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ctxs.html
Play Date: 05/20/2006
PKE (Park Electrochemical--$32.53; 0.00; optionable): Digital and radio frequency/microwave circuit materials, etc. (it's in the printed circuit board business)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pke.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Stone cold leader. Broke out from a 22 week base in December and rallied up the 18 day EMA (32.21) through early May when it shot higher on very strong earnings results. It surged over 36 on that move but then sold back as that was just when the market selling got underway. It faded back to the 50 day EMA (30.99) on lower volume, then showed a sharp jump Friday on strong volume. Ready to make the next strong move higher.
Volume: 135.6K Avg Volume: 103.827K
BUY POINT: $32.75 Volume=145K Target=$39.50 Stop=$30.88
POSITION: PKE IF - Sept. $30c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pke.html
Play Date: 05/20/2006
QCOM (Qualcom--$47.07; 0.00; optionable): Telecom licensing, equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qcom.html
After Hours: $47.30
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. QCOM was rocking along, leading the market higher with its steady climb up the 18 day EMA (now at 49.58) when it got broadsided by the May melee. It tanked to the 200 day SMA (45.99) but found support at that level Wednesday through Friday, showing a solid volume bounce to end the week. This is where the institutions get on board or get off, and right now they look to be getting on. We are looking at this play in two ways. First we see a great trading opportunity here as QCOM rebounds. If it blows through the 50 day EMA (49.93) great; if not we can get a decent option trade out of that move. We have a feeling it is going back through the 50 day if the kind of volume we saw Friday persists. If it does, we let it run some for us.
Volume: 22.837M Avg Volume: 13.096M
BUY POINT: $47.75 Volume=15M Target=$53.00 Stop=$45.88
POSITION: AAO JW - Oct. $47.50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/qcom.html
Play Date: 05/20/2006
WFT (Weatherford International--$51.31; 0.00; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wft.html
After Hours: $51.34
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Strong breakout in April, moving out of a 12 week base that formed at the 50 day EMA (now at 49.73), rallying up the 10 day EMA (53.11). As with all energy stocks it got caught in the selling the past two weeks, but it held the 50 day EMA and then bounced Friday on rising, above average volume. Strong stock and if you did not know of the energy and commodities selling, it would look just like a normal pullback to test a breakout. That is strength. Looking to move in as it continues higher on strong trade.
Volume: 4.295M Avg Volume: 3.449M
BUY POINT: $52.32 Volume=4.5M Target=$62.78 Stop=$49.65
POSITION: WFT HU - Aug. $50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wft.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Play Date: 05/18/2006
AMX (America Movil--$36.24; 0.00; optionable): Wireless telecom services in Latin America
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amx.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Big reach below the 50 day EMA (36.09) and then rebounding on above average volume Friday to close flat. Nice pullback, good shakeout Friday, and now looks ready. To recap: AMX is setting up another buy point with this nice test. It broke out from a 15 week flat trading range in late April and rallied to 41.25 on the move. After that run the market selling started and AMX sold back, testing that breakout and run. It has fully tested the move, coming back to the 50 day EMA and the top of the base at the same level. Nice pattern that used the 50 day EMA as support as it formed. After this test we are looking for AMX to rebound on volume.
Volume: 4.563M Avg Volume: 3.584M
BUY POINT: $36.88 Volume=5M Target=$44.00 Stop=$35.44
POSITION: AMX HG - Aug. $35c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amx.html
Play Date: 05/17/2006
COHR (Coherent--$34.35; 0.00; optionable): Lasers, precision optics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cohr.html
After Hours: $34.37
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Slipped through the 50 day EMA (34.70) Thursday and Friday, but not by much. Showed a big doji with tail Friday, reaching down to 33.35 and the a strong rebound on rising, above average volume to close positive. Very good shakeout action at the bottom of a sell off. Looks ready to make us that bounce. Our target is 41, but if it makes it only to the prior highs we won't be greedy as that would be a nice trade. To recap: Strong earnings sent COHR higher in late April, breaking it out from a 9 month cup with handle base It did not get much farther, however, before the recent selling started. It sold off as well, but volume was low and below average as it came back on the test, holding near the 50 day EMA. Looking for volume to ramp up as COHR makes the break higher.
Volume: 360.618K Avg Volume: 342.892K
BUY POINT: $35.42 Volume=435K Target=$41.00 Stop=$33.95
POSITION: HRQ HG - Aug. $35c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cohr.html
Play Date: 05/13/2006
FLSH (M-Systems Flash Disk--$36.39; 0.00; optionable): Semiconductor flash storage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flsh.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Finally started to move, hitting the buy point Friday but unable to hold it as volume was still below average. Nice start and we are looking for more trade this week as FLSH continues on through the buy point. To recap: FLSH used the selling last week to come back to near support and form a handle to its 18 week base. Roughly used the 200 day SMA (29.93) as support for the lows, a sign of institutional support. Accumulation is a solid 6 to 3, showing plenty of buying. Nice set up, ready for a 5.5 year high.
Volume: 994.265K Avg Volume: 1.306M
BUY POINT: $36.57 Volume=1.9M Target=$43.95 Stop=$35.00
POSITION: FFU JG - Oct. $35c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/flsh.html
Play Date: 05/17/2006
GISX (Global Imaging Systems--$39.30; 0.00; optionable): Office technology solutions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gisx.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Still in the nice test of the 18 day EMA (38.99) holding that level Thursday and Friday on lower trade. Very nice pullback during the selling and set up well to continue the breakout. To recap: GISX broke out from a 22 week cup with handle to start May, moving higher on strong volume. Nice pattern that used the 50 day EMA (37.92) as support, showing the big money staying with it, using the base to accumulation shares. Positive accumulation. Relative strength is moving higher this week even as GISX makes a modest pullback. Excellent action in the selling market, using the selling to test the 18 day EMA before making the next move higher.
Volume: 99.227K Avg Volume: 95K
BUY POINT: $40.11 Volume=150K Target=$47.95 Stop=$38.72
POSITION: QHU HH - Aug. $40c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gisx.html
Play Date: 05/16/2006
LRCX (Lam Research--$47.61; 0.00; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lrcx.html
After Hours: $47.61
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Volume jumped back up to average Friday as LRCX tested the 50 day EMA (46.91) and rallied to post a nice gain. Looks like the selling is ending, but we need to see more on Monday. Chip leader looking just about ready. To recap: LRCX rallied to start May with a nice high volume break higher, moving out of a 13 week cup with handle base that formed over the 50 day EMA. It got caught in the selling, but most of the downside was on light to below average volume, and unlike many stocks, the pullback did not wreck its pattern. Volume was up Tuesday as LRCX showed a nice hammer doji at the 50 day. Want to see continued rising volume as LRCX moves through the buy point.
Volume: 3.104M Avg Volume: 3.101M
BUY POINT: $48.57 Volume=4M Target=$58.65 Stop=$46.55
POSITION: LMQ IJ - Sept. $50c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lrcx.html
Play Date: 05/18/2006
VARI (Varian--$42.99; 0.00; optionable): Scientific instruments and vacuum products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vari.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Solid price surge Friday, but volume continued to fade, coming in even further below average. Need to see just a bit better trade on the bounce. Really like the way it is set up for this rebound, however. To recap: A common pattern, with many good stocks coming back to test this support level. VARI blasted higher in late April and again in early May, moving out from a 20 week cup with handle base. In the market selling it made a very orderly pullback on lower volume. Wednesday it reached all the way down to the 50 day (41.60) and then rebounded off the lows. Tried the move Thursday but the market was not ready for it. Solid pattern that formed on top of the 200 day SMA (39.11). Looking to move in as it continues the bounce.
Volume: 141.321K Avg Volume: 182.532K
BUY POINT: $43.31 Volume=275K Target=$49.95 Stop=$41.44
POSITION: IUA HH - Aug. $40c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vari.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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