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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: LUK, OII
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 05/23/2006
HOC (Holly Corp.--$77.69; +3.01; optionable): Oil and gas refining. Splits 2:1 on 6-2-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hoc.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. On again, off again. It is Tuesday so it must be back on. Hit the rocks Monday but rebounded Tuesday on continued strong volume. Tried a move through the 18 day EMA (78.19) but gave it up. Despite it all, HOC is holding its pattern setting up something of a short double bottom over the 50 day EMA (75.72). Looking for a continued move on volume back through the 18 day EMA.
Volume: 680.3K Avg Volume: 473.875K
BUY POINT: $78.44 Volume=720K Target=$94.00 Stop=$76.45
POSITION: HOC IP - Sept. $80c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hoc.html
Play Date: 05/23/2006
KEX (Kirby--$74.71; +1.43; optionable): Shipping. Splits 2:1 on 6-1-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kex.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA (70.90). Looking for another run out of KEX as it heads toward its June split. It broke out in late January and rallied up the 18 day EMA (75.14). After that run peaked in early May it needed a rest and has come back toward the 50 day EMA to make a deeper test. If it is strong and still wants to run, it will clear the 10 and 18 day EMA on some volume. We have a target, but we will take what it will give us on this run if it can break through the short term MA on volume.
Volume: 268.2K Avg Volume: 260.257K
BUY POINT: $75.55 Volume=350K Target=$86.95 Stop=$71.88
POSITION: KEX IO - Sept. $75c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kex.html
Play Date: 05/23/2006
MDR (McDermott Intl.--$64.04; +0.95; optionable): Oil and gas service company. Splits 3:2 on 6-1-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mdr.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. MDR broke out in late March, moving out of a 10 week base over the 50 day EMA (now at 60.77), rallying up the 10 day EMA (65.55) with that sharp break higher in early May as the commodities jumped. It has not folded up as did many energy stocks, instead filling its early May gap and holding the 50 day EMA this week on a big surge in volume. Volume at the 50 day EMA is not bad; it shows buyers moving in at this support level. Looking for a good rebound to make us a nice piece of change on its pre-split run.
Volume: 1.729M Avg Volume: 890K
BUY POINT: $65.65 Volume=1.3M Target=$75.50 Stop=$63.48
POSITION: MDR HM - Aug. $65c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mdr.html
Downside Play:
Play Date: 05/23/2006
CELL (Brightpoint--$23.18; -0.99; optionable): Distribution of wireless devices and accessories.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cell.html
After Hours: $23.18
STATUS: Put. Just split and experiencing some hangover after 3 splits in 9 months. Too many. CELL rallied well into the end of April, a bona fide market leader. Peaked at 28 but on low volume; the buyers just were not moving in as it continued its run. Stalled a bit to start May and then sliced through the 50 day EMA (24.19) on a huge surge of volume. Tanked to 20 where it found support and rebounded the past week. Stalled out at the 50 day EMA again, rolling over Tuesday after reaching higher and then turning negative. Money flow has shifted and is now heading lower. Looking to move in as it continues lower. A move to the target lands us a 46%ish gain. Not oversold.
Volume: 1.034M Avg Volume: 1.01M
BUY POINT: $23.04 Volume=1.2M Target=$21.00 Stop=$23.72
POSITION: ULD SE - July $25p (-68 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cell.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
BA: Researching the date. Wildcard with no prior splits.
CWTR: Forecast 5-24-06. Wednesday is the day. Set up well to bounce.
DAKT: May get the announcement 5-24-06 with earnings or the June 1 board meeting.
ESI: Researching the date.
FTI: Wildcard with no split history, but an excellent breakout test.
ITRI: Tanked on Tuesday, but trying to hold some support at 60.
LCAV: Researching split date
PLCE: Looking at the shareholder meeting on 6-22-06.
POT: Researching the date. Trying to hold the 200 day SMA. May set up here for a buy.
SHFL: Forecast in June. Gapped lower Friday as downgraded but trying to hold up over the early April peak.
SNDK: Researching the date
TRMB: Researching the potential split date
TSCO: Forecast mid-July. Needs to set back up but not doing it yet.
WCN: Forecast 5-25-06. Hanging in there.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/23/2006
HWAY (Healthways--$49.29; +0.21; optionable): Specialized health services. Forecast 6-20-06 w/earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 11-19-03 at $41.20. Before that a 3:2 split on 10-29-01 at $27.50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hway.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Used to be AMHC, always a good stock for us to play. Broke out in mid-March, moving out of a 3.5 month base, moving up to 55 on the breakout. It has spent the past 8 weeks coming back to test the move, holding roughly at the 50 day EMA (47.95) on the lows. Low, below average volume on most of the test. With a strong upside volume session two weeks back. Volume creeping up this week as HWAY moves higher. Nice 3 to 1 accumulation in the current pullback shows buyers continuing to accumulate the stock even as it moves higher.
Volume: 246.93K Avg Volume: 340.5K
BUY POINT: $50.11 Volume=511K Target=$60.00 Stop=$47.89
POSITION: QMH KJ - Nov. $50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hway.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/13/2006
CWTR (Coldwater Creek--$27.70; -0.36; optionable): Apparel stores. Forecast to announce 5-24-06
BACKGROUND: A frequent splitter though probably early for the next split. Last split 3:2 on 12-12-05 at $33.50. Before that on 2-14-05 at $26.90. Like these as they build up shares for holding onto a good stock.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cwtr.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Testing back to the 50 day EMA (27.51) ahead of Wednesday. Got a bit rocky Monday, reaching below the 50 day EMA but recovering to hold that level. Needs a strong move to clear the recent peaks.
Volume: 891.35K Avg Volume: 1.239M
BUY POINT: $29.48 Volume=1.5M Target=$35.50 Stop=$27.50
POSITION: UCJ JF - Oct. $30c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cwtr.html
Play Date: 05/20/2006
DAKT (Daktronics--$40.50; +2.06; optionable): Scoreboards, etc. Forecast 5-24-06.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 5-24-2001 at $29.20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dakt.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Bounced on solid volume Tuesday after sinking once more to test the 50 day EMA (38.75) Monday. Good rebound and looking to move in as it continues higher. To recap: DAKT got some of the dips last week and we decided to see if it would hold support or tank with other sectors. It ended up hold the 50 day, tapping that level Friday and then rebounding for a modest gain. Volume rose to back just above average, a good sign on the rebound. Ready to move in as DAKT continues the rebound this week on further strong volume.
Volume: 210.117K Avg Volume: 142.283K
BUY POINT: $40.50 Volume=217K Target=$48.72 Stop=$38.65
POSITION: QKC JH - Oct. $40c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dakt.html
Play Date: 05/06/2006
LCAV (LCA-Vision--$55.43; +1.84; optionable): Laser vision centers. Announced earnings 4-25-06. Researching split date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 11-17-04 at $32.20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lcav.html
STATUS: Test breakout. LCAV has come back to tap toward the 50 day EMA (52.51) the past two weeks, doing so again Monday. It is filling the late April gap higher on earnings, forming something of a handle to the pattern. Good volume Tuesday as price posted a good gain. Just about ready to breakout. To recap: LCAV gapped higher three weeks back on very strong volume, rallying on strong earnings results. That move took it out of an 11 week cup base in one quick move. It has spent the past three weeks testing, a lateral move with on low, below average volume. Positive accumulation in the base shows net buying as LCAV sets up for a new all-time high with a continuation of its breakout move.
Volume: 660.234K Avg Volume: 741.511K
BUY POINT: $57.98 Volume=1.1M Target=$69.50 Stop=$55.00
POSITION: JVQ IL - Sept. $60c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lcav.html
Play Date: 05/18/2006
TRMB (Trimble Navigation--$46.47; +1.68; optionable): GPS, robotic optical surveying instruments, etc. Researching the date.
BACKGROUND: TRMB announced its only split, 3:2, on 2-3-04 at $38.20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trmb.html
After Hours: $46.36
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Getting some volume this wee as TRMB moves off support at 44 and the 50 day EMA (44.98). Closed well off the Tuesday high (47.93) but held a lot of the gain as well. Looks ready to continue on. To recap: TRMB surged higher in April on strong earnings, breaking from a 9 month cup with handle base. It moved laterally after that breakout in the market weakness, and finally came back to test the move this past week, falling to the 50 day EMA. That stopped it cold and TRMB showed a nice hammer doji at that level Thursday. A good full test of the breakout, and we are looking to move in as TRMB makes its rebound to continue the breakout run.
Volume: 682.093K Avg Volume: 316.916K
BUY POINT: $46.55 Volume=400K Target=$55.75 Stop=$44.72
POSITION: TUH HI - Aug. $45c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/trmb.html
CONTINUING PRE-SPLIT PLAYS
Play Date: 05/20/2006
CLDN (Celadon Group--$27.00; +1.21; no options): Air delivery and freight. Splits 3:2 on 6-16-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cldn.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Good shakeout on volume Monday and a solid price move Tuesday before the late selling pushed it back below the 18 day EMA (27.30). Still a solid move and ready to give us the buy. To recap: Another strong stock testing its 50 day EMA, setting up the next move. CLDN just split in February, formed an 8 week double bottom with handle base, and then broke out for the next move, just what a strong stock will do. It rallied to 30 on the run and then in the market selling it faded back to the 50 day EMA (25.96) to end the week on below average volume. Have to like that as it shows no heavy selling, no dumping of shares. That means when this test is over those buyers that held it will be buying into it once more. That is the move we want to take part in. As CLDN starts back up on volume we will be ready to move in.
Volume: 203.911K Avg Volume: 223.746K
BUY POINT: $27.05 Volume=250K Target=$32.50 Stop=$25.72
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cldn.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS
Play Date: 05/22/2006
VMSI (Ventana Medical Sys.--$47.22; +0.04; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vmsi.html
After Hours: $47.12
STATUS: Test breakout. Tried to make the move Tuesday, hitting 48 on the high on rising but still below average volume. Faded from that level to close basically flat. Still solid, still looking for the continued move on some good volume. To recap: Tremendous breakout in late April, blasting out of a 11 month base on strong earnings. It came back to test the break over the next two weeks, but it held the move, rebounding before hitting the 50 day EMA (43.63). Moved up the past week as the market sold, showing some better volume. Nice price move Monday but no volume. Money flow is running higher, and relative strength broke out ahead of price, a bullish indication for VMSI to follow it higher. Nice leader that last split in March 2005, set up in the new base, and is not ready for the next run.
Volume: 309.546K Avg Volume: 310.786K
BUY POINT: $47.85 Volume=425K Target=$56.95 Stop=$45.32
POSITION: UMI II - Sept. $45c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vmsi.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock split
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