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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: PFWD; SYKE; VARI; WEBX
Strong plays:
1) SMDI: Nice test looks just about done.
2) SMSI: Tried the big move Wednesday. Just needs some volume.
3) CTXS: Very nice 50 day EMA test.
4) GISX: Plenty of solid volume ready to send it higher.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 05/24/2006
AGE (A.G. Edwards--$51.61; +0.66; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/age.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. AGE surged out of a 9 month base in late March, rallying on very strong volume. The move carried it from 46 to 52 in late April. It has come back this month in the market selling, falling to the 50 day EMA (50.63) the past week, holding that level and moving laterally at that support. Volume surged Wednesday as AGE tapped the 50 day again and bounced. Still needs to clear some interim resistance at 52 on strong trade to continue the upside move.
Volume: 1.278M Avg Volume: 460K
BUY POINT: $52.48 Volume=700K Target=$62.00 Stop=$50.38
POSITION: AGE KJ - Nov. $50c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/age.html
Play Date: 05/24/2006
AXE (Anixter International--$48.17; -0.32; optionable): Electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/axe.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Nice doji with tail Wednesday as volume jumped, holding the weeklong test of the 50 day EMA (48.30). This test has filled the late April gap higher that took AXE out of its 11 week trading range that used the 50 day as support. Top notch fundamentals growth. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the base shows net buying. Solid on all fours.
Volume: 356.5K Avg Volume: 255.7K
BUY POINT: $49.65 Volume=400K Target=$57.00 Stop=$47.78
POSITION: AXE KJ - Nov. $50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/axe.html
Play Date: 05/24/2006
SMDI (Sirenza Microdevices--$11.90; +0.21; no options): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/smdi.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. SMDI is a strong leader, making another strong break higher to start May. It rallied a bit further over 13 and then came back to test during the market, selling, coming back on low volume to test and hold the 18 day EMA (11.52). Nice hold of the breakout during all of the selling, setting up for the next move.
Volume: 561.37K Avg Volume: 451.514K
BUY POINT: $12.55 Volume=677K Target=$15.12 Stop=$11.38
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/smdi.html
Play Date: 05/24/2006
SMSI (Smith Micro Software--$12.71; +0.32; no options): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/smsi.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. SMSI has moved laterally the past 8 weeks during the market selling, moving in a range from 11 to 13.50 as the 50 day EMA (11.65) rises to meet it. Excellent 16 month cup with handle breakout in late May sent it higher and now it is consolidating that breakout. Excellent strength in this stock along with solid fundamentals growth. Tried the move Wednesday but faded as volume faded below average. Still looks ready to continue the break, just want to see more volume.
Volume: 438.377K Avg Volume: 476.302K
BUY POINT: $13.55 Volume=714K Target=$16.30 Stop=$12.57
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/smsi.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Play Date: 05/20/2006
CTXS (Citrix Systems--$39.05; +0.05; optionable): On demand information access software, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctxs.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Still testing the 50 day EMA (38.66), showing a nice tight doji at that level Wednesday as volume jumped back up above average. Excellent test, and looking for the rebound through the 18 day EMA (40.27). To recap: CTXS made us some great coin this year, after the strong run up through early May it needed a breather. The market selling came along and pushed it back to the 50 day EMA. We said we were going to let it make the test and then move back in. It looks to have done that, undercutting the 50 day EMA intraday the past few sessions and then rebounding for a positive close. A strong market leader this one, and we are looking for CTXS to make us some more scratch as it rebounds off the 50 day.
Volume: 3.082M Avg Volume: 2.674M
BUY POINT: New: $40.42 (orig. $40.88) Volume=4M Target=$49.00 Stop=$38.55
POSITION: XSQ IH - Sept. $40c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ctxs.html
Play Date: 05/22/2006
FMD (First Marblehead--$44.10; -0.61; optionable): Credit services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fmd.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice reach below the 50 day EMA (44.27) Wednesday and a recovery to hold near that level on the close. Another good shakeout setting up the breakout move. To recap: Big 15 month base has formed and now using the 50 day EMA the past 10 weeks as it forms the handle to the base. This is where the stock kind of bores everyone to sleep, moving laterally with some lower tests on low volume, weeding out the sellers. Never know when it will make the move, but when it goes it will be a good one. Nice doji Monday at the 50 day EMA. Maybe that is the signal for the move. Strong fundamentals and earnings growth.
Volume: 464.9K Avg Volume: 782.035K
BUY POINT: $45.85 Volume=1M Target=$55.00 Stop=$44.00
POSITION: FMD II - Sept. $45c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/fmd.html
Play Date: 05/17/2006
GISX (Global Imaging Systems--$39.68; +0.37; optionable): Office technology solutions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gisx.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Good volume Wednesday as GISX moved up off the 18 day EMA (39.10). Nice test and getting the volume it needs to continued the nice breakout after this test. To recap: GISX broke out from a 22 week cup with handle to start May, moving higher on strong volume. Nice pattern that used the 50 day EMA (38.08) as support, showing the big money staying with it, using the base to accumulation shares. Positive accumulation. Relative strength is moving higher this week even as GISX makes a modest pullback. Excellent action in the selling market, using the selling to test the 18 day EMA before making the next move higher.
Volume: 139.601K Avg Volume: 95K
BUY POINT: $40.11 Volume=150K Target=$47.95 Stop=$38.72
POSITION: QHU HH - Aug. $40c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gisx.html
Play Date: 05/23/2006
LFUS (Littelfuse--$34.45; +0.44; optionable): Circuit protection products for electronics, automotive, electrical markets
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lfus.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Reached lower to the 50 day EMA (32.97) Wednesday, then rebounded to post a modest gain on average volume. Nice base ready to make the move. To recap: Holding up remarkably well in the selling, going about setting up the current 11 week base over the 50 day EMA. Strong money flow is leading higher a good complement to the strong 4 to 0 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume). Solid action in the weak market, with good price/volume action on a day to day basis in addition to the accumulation. Eased back to close at the 10 day EMA Tuesday on lower volume, again doing its own thing in the market selling.
Volume: 161.523K Avg Volume: 179.749K
BUY POINT: $35.65 Volume=270K Target=$42.00 Stop=$33.55
POSITION: GFQ IG - July $35c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lfus.html
Play Date: 05/22/2006
VMSI (Ventana Medical Sys.--$46.89; -0.33; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vmsi.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Tapped the 18 day EMA (45.84) on the low and rebounded on stronger volume. Still looks ready to move higher after this nice test. To recap: Tremendous breakout in late April, blasting out of a 11 month base on strong earnings. It came back to test the break over the next two weeks, but it held the move, rebounding before hitting the 50 day EMA (43.76). Moved up the past week as the market sold, showing some better volume. Nice price move Monday but no volume. Money flow is running higher, and relative strength broke out ahead of price, a bullish indication for VMSI to follow it higher. Nice leader that last split in March 2005, set up in the new base, and is not ready for the next run.
Volume: 370.196K Avg Volume: 309.919K
BUY POINT: $47.85 Volume=425K Target=$56.95 Stop=$45.32
POSITION: UMI II - Sept. $45c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vmsi.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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