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us stock market, stock share
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: GLBL; GRMN; HWAY; PMTI; RMD SMSI
Thursday night play results:
DRIV: Doji at the top of its tight range. May fade a bit before it makes the breakout, but solid.
EXPD: Nice low volume as it sets up for the pre-split move.
MANT: Excellent action with a doji at the 18 day EMA
RMD: Started up off the 50 day on rising volume
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/27/2006
DXPE (DXP Enterprises--$46.05; -0.70; no options): Wholesale industrial equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dxpe.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. DXPE broke out from a 5.5 month cup with handle base in March, starting a solid run up the 18 day EMA (now at 47.49). It rallied to 59 on the move and then needed a deeper test. It came back during the market selling to tap at the 50 day EMA (41.35) and then rebound. Pretty strong in that it did not even hit the 50 day as it sold. Volume faded to end the week as DXPE moved laterally below the 18 day. It did not move much last week either up or down, instead just continuing its test. A strong stock will do that, and we are looking for DXPE to complete the base this week and resume the run higher. DXPE is strong both technically and fundamentally with some of the best sales and earnings growth rates in the market.
Volume: 375.1K Avg Volume: 575K
BUY POINT: $47.88 Volume=675K Target=$58.00 Stop=$44.89
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dxpe.html
Play Date: 05/27/2006
FORR (Forrester Research--$25.83; -0.04; no options): Research services re impact of technology on business and consumers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/forr.html
STATUS: Test breakout. FORR is in the process of digging itself out of a 6 year correction. It has formed two bases over the past 9 months, blasting higher in late April out of an 8 week flat base, running to 27 on the high. It used the market selling to test the breakout. Fading back to the 18 day EMA (25.42) on very low volume, working laterally along that support level the past two weeks. Excellent action and we are looking for it to deliver a high volume break higher this week as it resumes the move. Sold 4 to 2 accumulation in the most recent base (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buying; nice complement to the strong money flow.
Volume: 32.8K Avg Volume: 115K
BUY POINT: $26.48 Volume=172K Target=$31.75 Stop=$25.28
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/forr.html
Play Date: 05/27/2006
LMIA (LMI Aerospace--$20.45; +0.90; no options): Aerospace/defense
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lmia.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Excellent test of the early May breakout from a nicely formed 17 week base that used the 50 day EMA (18.29) to make higher and higher lows. Big volume on the breakout and then used the market selling to make a nice, easy pullback to the 50 day EMA, showing a doji at that level Wednesday before the modest (and low volume) bounce to end the week. That does not worry us. We like the 4 to 2 accumulation in the base, the surging money flow, and the relative strength, ready to breakout to a new high yet again. Very strong and excellent fundamentals growth to go along with the excellent technical pattern. Looking for the rebound to continue to with some volume to start the play.
Volume: 89.5K Avg Volume: 225K
BUY POINT: $20.75 Volume=265K Target=$24.95 Stop=$19.65
POSITION: - Stock (No option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/lmia.html
Play Date: 05/27/2006
UARM (Under Armour--$34.40; +0.22; optionable): Sports garments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uarm.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. A new issue in November 2005, UARM surged to 40 after its IPO. It then fell into its first base, a 3 month cup with handle that broke out in late April with a rocket launch on its earnings report. Big gap, and the move higher that day used up all of the gas in the tank. UAMR spent the next 5 weeks fading to test that move, coming back on low volume (shows no heavy selling) to test the 50 day EMA (34.06) during all of the market selling. It threatened to break lower but held up in the worst of the selling. Friday UARM showed a doji on a big jump in volume as it priced 7.3M share secondary offering. Looking to start the play as UARM jumps off this doji at the 50 day EMA.
Volume: 3.439M Avg Volume: 900K
BUY POINT: $36.12 Volume=1.4M Target=$43.50 Stop=$33.88
POSITION: UWG JG - Oct. $35c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/uarm.html
Downside: Want to be ready to move the other way if this rebound fails.
Play Date: 05/27/2006
AMT (American Tower--$31.54; +0.40; optionable): Telecom towers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amt.html
STATUS: Put. A stock with strong fundamentals that is taking a deeper correction this time around. Even a strong stock such as AMT needs rests, and after a long run it looks ready to base once more to set up the next move higher. For now it looks ready to come back down to continue the process after rebounding on low volume last week to test its tank through the 50 day EMA (32.15). We think AMT will ultimately recover from this, it just has to work out all of the froth. We are looking for AMT to complete the test here at the 10 day EMA (31.57) or maybe up to the 50 day EMA and then turn back down. A move to the target lands us a 49%ish gain.
Volume: 2.398M Avg Volume: 3.2M
BUY POINT: $31.22 Volume=3.3M Target=$29.05 Stop=$31.72
POSITION: AMT ST - July $32.50p (-56 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/amt.html
Play Date: 05/27/2006
BJS (BJ Services--$35.33; +0.27; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bjs.html
STATUS: Double top. BJS was one of those hit energy stocks, surging in January, selling off, then surging back up in April. It set up a very nice cup with handle base but when it came time to deliver the breakout it reversed. It sold off hard, down to 32 on the low. Last week it bounced back, modestly retaking the 200 day SMA (35.27). Volume was lower, however, and intraday BJS tapped the 50 day SMA (36.25) and faded. Looks as if this rebound attempt has just about run out of gas. Looking to move in to the downside move as it rolls back over. A move to the target lands us a 50%ish gain.
Volume: 5.104M Avg Volume: 5.25M
BUY POINT: $35.09 Volume=5.5M Target=$32.50 Stop=$35.55
POSITION: BJS SG - July $35p (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bjs.html
Play Date: 05/27/2006
PGNX (Progenics Pharmaceutical--$21.79; +0.10; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pgnx.html
STATUS: Put. PGNX double topped in late February and started the current ongoing downtrend. It has used the 18 day EMA (21.98) as resistance, bouncing up to that level and then starting another $3+ decline. Last week it used the overall market rebound to rebound itself, coming back to the 18 day EMA on stronger volume Tuesday but then declining volume to end the week. A tight doji at the 18 day EMA Friday indicates PGNX is ready to make the next move lower in its trend. A move to the target lands us a 44%ish gain.
Volume: 174 Avg Volume: 265K
BUY POINT: $21.59 Volume=300K Target=$20.00 Stop=$22.05
POSITION: GUB SX - July $22.50c (-56 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pgnx.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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