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us stock market, stock watch
Begin Part 3 of 3
SRCL (Stericycle--$56.75; +1.24; optionable): Waste management. Forecast to announce a split on 2-19-02 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/srcl.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that SRCL has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-15-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Still holding support. SRCL has made a solid move since the attacks, and made a solid bounce earlier this month from the 50 day MVA (then 47.50; now 50.48). We were looking for a bounce off of the doji with a long "tail" Monday, and SRCL did manage a move after gapping down to the 18 day (54.49). Volume was solid at 404,900 (average 271,000), and after this test of support we will see if it can take out the high at 58.50. Still targeting 65.
BUY POINT: New high: 58.62 on increased volume. Stop: 55.
POSITION: Stock and/or February $55 calls to buy (URL BK).
WLP (Wellpoint Health Networks--$119.86; +0.51; optionable): Working on a date, but a pattern you can't refuse.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wlp.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that WLP has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-8-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: WLP is in a large cup dating back to late December 2000 (left side high: 120), having pulled into a series of rather jagged runs that first used the 200 day, then the 50 day, and now the short-term MVA's as support as it progressed. It bounced Monday from the 10 day MVA (118.20), but volume was low and it showed a doji today on even lower volume (395,500; average 718,700), hitting very near the breakout buy point. We could get a pullback here to test back to the 10 day or 18 day MVA (116.76), and a longer handle here would not be a bad thing, given the length of the overall pattern. We are using last week's intraday high as the breakout here, but will watch the recent intraday breakout spike that hit 122.90 as resistance. Target: 132.
BUY POINT: Breakout: Perhaps after a test back on continued low volume, 120.51 on volume of 1.1 million. Stop: 115.
POSITIONS: Stock and/or January $115 calls to buy (WLP AC).
NDN ($39.01; +0.89; optionable): Retail. Researching a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ndn.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 4:3 split on 1-19-00 at $24.25, and 5:4 splits on 10-26-98 at $30.30 and 10-30-97 at $25.25.
STATUS: Could be ready to test the great move. NDN made a strong move from its 50 day MVA (34.34) last week, but after hitting a high of 39.45 Monday it pulled back a bit, and then pushed back up Tuesday, but on much weaker volume (302,900; average 378,600). With current positions we are carefully watching for a pullback, wary of higher volume selling. On a test back, and perhaps the formation of a handle (to the cup formed since the October high of 39.50), we will see if it hold the 37-38 range (10 day 36.70). Still targeting 45 on a breakout.
BUY POINT: After testing back to 37-38, a buy point at a new high of 39.62 on volume of 400,000 or better. Stop: 36.85 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or March $35 calls to buy (NDN CG).
PAST SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:
FIC (Fair Isaac & Co--$59.50; +0.04; optionable): Business services.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fic.html
STATUS: FIC is in the upper range of the long (3-week) handle to its cup, showing consecutive dojis after hitting 60 at its highs. Volume was up on Tuesday, although still modest at 180,600 (average). From these dojis we could get a test back down toward recent support of the 10 day MVA (58.08; 18 day at 56.71), but we are still looking for a breakout from this nice consolidation after that move. FIC is showing excellent money flow. Target: 70.
BUY POINT: 60.12 on volume of 270,000. Stop: 55.
POSITION: Stock and/or January $55 calls to buy (FIC AK - low open interest).
PRE-SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:
Watchlist:
PBG ($45.12; +0.44): Splits 2:1 effective 12-5-01. Splits tomorrow, and never gave us a move as it approached the date. Dropping.
FLO ($41.15; -0.75): Splits 3:2 1-3-01. Could not hold on over the short-term MVA's (10 day at 41.64), and dropped back again today, testing the 50 day MVA (39.91) and rebounding a bit. Not looking strong, and has a ways to go before it hits the aggressive buy point of 42.87 on above average volume (66,600), with stock and/or $40 calls to buy (FLO AH).
VAR ($69.05; -0.35): Splits 2:1 on or about January 16. VAR continues to hold support at the 50 day (68.71; 200 day at 67.63). Quite a bit of support here, and we will see if it can hold, but it could be a bit before we have something to the upside.
Plays:
CACI (Caci International--$78.38; +5.09; optionable): Technical services. Splits 2:1 effective 12-7-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/caci.html
STATUS: Oh yes. Made the start of the next leg of its nice pre-split run today with a strong move. We were looking at CACI as a best play Monday, as it had dipped modestly back toward its 10 day MVA (72.32). Today CACI took off, blasting to a new high on excellent volume (497,600; average 314,000). Technically a buy up to 79, but going toward the split we look carefully at the moves for topping signs (doji, close well off the intraday high, weak volume move up) to signal the possible end of a run. Riding existing positions until we get some indication.
PLAY: Aggressive: A buy up to 79, watching for topping signs to signal an exit. Stock and/or January $75 calls to buy (KQL AN - under 100 open interest).
CHBS (Christopher & Banks--$39.08; +1.03; optionable): Retail apparel. Splits 3:2 effective 12-13-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chbs.html
STATUS: Tried again to breakout, but volume was weak and for the second time in three sessions it failed. It is in an ascending wedge handle, formed after it recently broke from its previous ranging handle to a cup (dating back to May, high of 47.50). Off of this pattern we could see CHBS test the 18 day MVA (37.31) again for another try. A good pattern and a good stock, so we will see if it can regroup and make a good pre-split move. The target on a move over the high is 46, but with all pre-splits we stand ready to take profits as stocks can be volatile at this time.
PLAY: Aggressive: After holding the 18 day, a move over 39 on above average volume (410,000), with stock and/or January $35 calls to buy (URH AG). Stop: 37. Breakout: 40.42 on volume of 540,000, with stock and/or January $35 calls to buy (URH AG). Stop: 37.60.
CBH ($76.06; +1.60): Splits 2:1 effective 12-19-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbh.html
STATUS: Moved up again in the rather precarious handle. CBH held again just below its 18 day MVA (74.64) on its most recent drop back, and bounced today. However, it was again a weak bounce, coming on increased volume of 109,700 (average 148,700). Close to a breakout, but we need to see some volume in this pattern (cup with handle). We are still wary of a drop back toward the 50 day (73.09) if we do not get strength on a move up. Target: 83.
PLAY: 76.82 on volume of 230,000, with stock and/or January (very low open interest currently) or March $70 calls to buy (CBH AN or CBH CN).
KIM (Kimco Realty--$50.00; +0.45; no options): REIT. Splits 3:2 effective 12-24-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kim.html
STATUS: KIM has been moving in a large ascending wedge, and on the most recent move the stock has tightened into a range between the pattern highs (50.20) and the 18 day MVA (49.58). Volume has been low, and remained low today (123,600; average 165,600) as KIM moved back up off the 18 day. Could drop back to the 50 day (48.95), but we are still looking for strength on a breakout. We are close the breakout level, so we are wary of a gap over the buy point; in such an instance, it is often prudent to wait for a test of the former high and see if it holds, looking for a move back up on strong vooume. Target: 60.
PLAY: 50.32 on volume of 230,000. Stop: 48.
HRH (Hib Rogal--$60.00; +0.08; no options): Insurance brokers. Splits 2:1 eff. 1-2-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hrh.html
STATUS: Holding onto support. HRH broke out last week (hitting 62.75) on sharply increased, but still below average volume, but quickly pulled back. Today it continued to hold, showing a doji on continued below average volume (77,000; average 116,200). HRH has made a great run from the September lows near 41, but if it can hold here we could get more, and there is plenty of time before the split. Target: 66.
PLAY: Aggressive: A move over 61 on above average volume. Stop: 58.
CONTINUING CANDIDATES REMAINING PLAYS: When splits are not announced, we will keep the best split prospects on the report rather than continue to carry all of them in case there is a an unexpected announcement. We will continue to monitor the stocks that are trimmed and add them again when we ascertain a revised split announcement date.
Watchlist:
ACS ($95.40; +1.79): Pushed back up through the short-term MVA's (10 day at 94.60) to close just under the upper channel trendline as volume increased slightly, but remained below average at 369,800 (average 702,100). Neither strong moves up or down recently, so we are watching to see what ACS does from here, waiting for more of a pattern to develop, and still keeping a close eye on those stops. If we don't see strength on a move up soon, it may just drift here until it eventually intersects with the 50 day (currently 90.68).
BJ ($43.65; -0.59): We like to keep some puts in your arsenal - but BJ may not be the strongest weapon right now. It announced a buyback today, and after the higher volume rebound we could be ready to exit any existing positions. We will keep an eye on it, but nothing new for now.
FLIR ($44.85; +2.62): Cleared the short-term MVA's today, and is trying to push back up toward the recent closing highs (47.50), but the gains are coming on falling volume (down to 248,100 today, average 365,600) - a troublesome sign - so we have yet to get back in. We need to strength on a recovery to consider upside positions, if we don't get it soon, we wouldn't be surprised to see another test back to the 50 day at 40.82.
JEC ($69.17; +1.53): As expected, got the test of the 50 day (67.89), followed by a weak bounce up from there today that stalled at the short-term MVA's (18 day at 69.55) as volume fell to 141,600 (average 206,200). Still weak.
PEP ($48.47; -0.31): PEP is still trying to hold the 50 day (48.54) after recent drop from 50 (drop preceded by a weak volume move up). Once again, it traded in a wide range today, tapping up through the short-term MVA's (49) and down toward recent intraday support at 48, as volume fell to 2.79 million (average 5.12 million). Still not much here to set up a play.
SLM ($85.66; +0.39): SLM gave up the short-term MVA's (18 day at 85.82), last Friday, testing back to the 50 day (84.27). Tried a weak bounce today, but pulled back from a high of 85.45 (up trendline at 86.25), so we could see a more extended test of the 50 day before we get a playable move.
THC ($60.62; +0.51): THC gave us a very solid move up in mid-November, but after a test back to the 50 day (58.33) it is making a move up on light volume (falling again today to 843,400, average 2.09 million), so it might not be ready to blast up again jut yet. Moving the aggressive buy point to a move over the recent high (61.21) on above average volume, with stock and/or February $55 calls to buy (THC BK).
Plays:
APPB (Applebee's--$34.35; +1.03; optionable): Leisure: Restaurants
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/appb.html
STATUS: A weak breakout move from a weak pattern. As we noted earlier, Friday's breakout attempt stalled at the closing recent highs and while we were looking for a stronger move up, we were also watching for a pullback. APPB broke free from the pattern today, moving up from the 10 day MVA at 33.16 and hitting a high of 34.41, but we did not get in on the play because once again, volume had fallen and was just too low at 315,100 (average 413,900). It could continue to move from here, but we need to see a pullback hold support followed by a run on above average volume before we are willing to get in. With the recent weak action (especially today) we are still wary of a trip to the 50 day MVA (31.44). We were targeting 40 on a strong breakout.
BUY POINT: After a low volume pullback holds the 10 day, a move back over 34 on volume of 500,000 or better.
POSITION: Stock and/or February $30 calls to buy (AQB BF; under 100 open interests thus far).
RMD (Resmed--$61.50; -0.25; optionable): Health services.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rmd.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 2-25-00 with a board meeting. The stock price was $68.
STATUS: After Monday's terrific breakout, RMD gapped back, and after hitting a high of 62.20, it pulled well back to close just under the initial breakout high as volume increased to 444,000 (average 204,800). We are cautious with current positions, and still watching for more of a pullback with lower volume profit taking. We want to see profit taking hold the left side high 61.39 or the recent highs at 60, and will watch for a stronger move back up from there.
BUY POINT: After holding 60-61 on a low volume pullback, a move over 61.39 on continued strong volume. Stop: 57.50.
POSITIONS: Stock and/or January $55 calls to buy (RMD AK).
STJ (St. Jude Medical--$74.65; +0.12): Health Services.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stj.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that STJ has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-17-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Still drifting up, and we would still prefer to see it drifting back in this handle-type consolidation (following a breakout of a small double bottom). Volume increased slightly today to 543,200 (average 709,200) as STJ moved up just a bit and closed with a tight doji over the 10 day MVA (73.57). It could be trying to set up a move, and if we see an above average volume surge carry a move past the recent high of 74.92 we can look at playing it, but we will be cautious with positions because of the action in the handle and the fact that this is a rather short pattern (just over five weeks, and we like a minimum of seven). The stock has made a solid run up over the past 19 months, occasionally dipping back to the 200 day MVA (last time in September) between bounces along the 50 day. Target: 83.
BUY POINT: Breakout: 75.04 on minimum volume of 1 million. Stop: 72 (50 day at 71.11)
POSITION: January $70 calls to buy (STJ AN).
POST SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:
Watchlist:
AMHC ($33.60; +1.65): Split 3:2 effective 11-26-01. As expected, we saw some nice lower volume profit taking Monday (that held neatly over the pivot). The breakout (from a 4-week pennant) quickly resumed today as volume picked right back up to 308,900 (average 127,700). From here we are still riding current positions; the aggressive can play a move up over the intraday high of 34 (breakout high 34.40) on continued strong volume. Stock only, stop: 29.30.
ATK ($77.00; -0.65): Split 3:2 on 9-10-01. It may be time to take profits on put positions taken on the most recent drop. Lately we have seen smaller losses on rising volume - which is generally a bottoming sign. We got a serious volume surge today, (up to 1.66 million, average 365,200), but the stock only managed a slight loss on the day, and pulled well up off the low to close, so we will carefully watch for a bounce up, and consider exiting current positions on a move up from here.
EPIQ ($18.55; -1.05): Split 3:2 effective December 3. After the big drop back, it does not look too good in either direction post-split. Dropping.
Plays:
MIKE (Michael's--$29.50; -0.69; optionable): Split 2:1 effective November 27.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mike.html
STATUS: The low volume test continues. After Friday's nice bounce up from the 18 day MVA (28.60), MIKE paused a bit Monday, closing with a low volume doji in the range of the recent highs. It pulled back to the 10 day MVA (29.20) today as volume held steady (and much lower than we saw Friday) at 643,100 (average 611,400). We like lower-volume pullbacks that hold support, and are looking for it to continue while we wait for the upward momentum to resume. Still riding existing positions as long as support holds, and on a strong move back over the recent high (30.65) we can look at additional positions. Target: 35. Moves to the NYSE December 12.
PLAY: Aggressive: From here or after continuing to hold support, a move over 30.65 on increased, above average volume, with January $27.50 calls to buy (IKQ AY).
PDLI ($Protein Design Labs--$37.04; +0.34; optionable): Drugs - Biotech. Split 2:1 effective October 12.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pdli.html
STATUS: Ready to move? After breaking out early last week (of a rather jagged handle to a double bottom), PDLI quickly pulled back to the 18 day MVA (36.27) and since then has bounced between that support and resistance at 38 on generally below average volume. We have kept PDLI on the watch list to see if it would settle into a playable pattern, and we got a signal today, although this is still an aggressive play. The stock tested down to 35.38 before pulling up to close with a tight doji over the 10 day (36.93) as volume shot way up to 2.86 million (average 2.23 million). The high volume recovery can signals a jump back up, so from here we are looking for continued strength to support a move over the recent high (39.39). On the move we are targeting 45 (left side high: 45.47).
PLAY: Aggressive: A move over 38 on increased volume. Stop: 36. Breakout: 39.52 on minimum volume of 3 million. Stop: 35.75. With either play; stock and/or February $32.50 calls to buy (PQI BZ).
WFMI (Whole Foods--$43.18; +0.39; optionable): Grocery stores. Split 2:1 on June 5.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfmi.html
STATUS: Still holding the lateral consolidation. WFMI tried to break out of the pattern today, hitting 43.79 at the high (just over our buy point), but volume was much lower at 424,000 (average 728,900), and not enough to trigger the play, and the stock pulled way off that high to close. With this candlestick we could see more of a pullback, and on that move we are looking for the 10 day MVA (42.24) to continue to provide support and will look for a stronger attempt from there. WFMI made a couple of very strong moves in November, breaking to a new high mid-month before pulling into this lateral consolidation. It has held up well, but we will continue to carefully protect profits. Good money flow and relative strength. Target: 48.
PLAY: From here, or after a pullback holds the 10 day, 43.92 on volume of 800,000, with stock and/or January $40 calls to buy (FMQ BH). Stop: 40.67 (7%).
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock watch
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