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trade stock, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: CELG; OII; ALTR; PGNX
Thursday night play results:
BHI: Tried to continue the move off the 50 day MA but stalled out Friday
BRLI: Ran higher on strong volume but then gave it back. Still solid.
GES: Moved higher on solid trade as well, but the afternoon took it back down.
JCOM: Trying to hold the 18 day EMA as it tested back on stronger, above average volume.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 06/10/2006
SRCL (Stericycle--$66.69; +0.44; optionable): Medical waste management services. Tentatively forecast to announce a split in late July.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 5-16-02 at $73.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/srcl.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. SRCL has set up this bullish 10 week base just below a new all-time high, consolidating a steady move higher in 2005. Like the way it works: sets up a nice base, then rallies nicely, sets up a base, etc. It used the May selling to its advantage, shaking out the sellers on a dive toward the 200 day SMA (60.95) and then recovered. Excellent 6 to 2 accumulation in the pattern (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty interested in the stock even as it consolidates. Last week SRCL faded to the 18 day EMA (65.85), putting the finishing touches on its pattern. Strong money flow is moving higher even as SRCL makes this test. Of course, with it holding near a high its relative strength is ready to break out. Looking excellent and in the right field for a weakening (weak?) market.
Volume: 247.878K Avg Volume: 256.486K
BUY POINT: $68.45 Volume=385K Target=$78.95 Stop=$65.78
POSITION: URL KN - Nov. $70c (48 delta) or URL HM - Aug. $65c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/srcl.html
Play Date: 06/10/2006
TXU (TXU Corp.--$57.89; +0.54; optionable): Electric utilities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/txu.html
STATUS: Test breakout. TXU formed a large double bottom, breaking higher with a strong surge in early May on a strong earnings report. The move took it out of its 7 month base, taking it to 58 on the high. It came back to form a handle in the May selling, then broke higher to end that month and to start June. The past two weeks it has tested, coming back to the 18 day EMA (56.80) on low volume. The breakout took TXU to a new all-time high, and the test is setting up the next move higher, giving us an entry. We want to see the stock turn back up on rising volume to show us the resumption of the move is on, and that is when we move in. Another stock that is in the right sector for a weaker market.
Volume: 2.996M Avg Volume: 4.318M
BUY POINT: $58.75 Volume=5.5M Target=$69.96 Stop=$56.65
POSITION: TXF JY - Oct. $57.50c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/txu.html
Downside:
Play Date: 06/10/2006
CWTR (Coldwater Creek--$25.27; -0.71; optionable): Apparel retail stores, catalogues.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cwtr.html
STATUS: Head and shoulders. Cold water has splashed on this retail leader, forming a broad top the past 10 weeks. It crashed the 50 day EMA (now at 26.94) in late May, the first time it has traded below that level since a brief stint during a base in February. It rebounded from that crash, but could not make it back through the 50 day. Thursday it sold off and recovered, and Friday CWTR tapped the 10 day EMA (26.24) on the high and rolled over. Kiss goodbye for now as it looks as if CWTR is going to fill that big gap higher in early March. Those come back to bite, or in this case, splash cold water on stock prices. A move to the target lands us a 60%ish gain. Pretty sweet water.
Volume: 1.073M Avg Volume: 1.286M
BUY POINT: $24.95 Volume=1.4M Target=$22.75 Stop=$26.25
POSITION: UCJ SE - July $25p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cwtr.html
Play Date: 06/10/2006
NVTL (Novatel Wireless--$9.89; -0.31; optionable): 3G wireless PC card modems, communications software, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvtl.html
STATUS: Put. Forbes says NVTL is well situated in 3G, and it is. That does not mean its stock price is going higher, particularly when its Q1 results were 'disappointing.' NVTL has trended lower for quite some time, but enjoyed a solid rally from March to the end of May. At that point it ran into the 200 day SMA (11.56); it gapped down from the 200 day in late January and this rebound has filled most of that gap. It sold in early June, tried to hold the 50 day EMA (10.29), but then started to sink as last week ran on, making a new closing low for the week on Friday. Looks like a roll over in process. A move to the target from the buy point lands us a 60%ish gain.
Volume: 724.083K Avg Volume: 916.963K
BUY POINT: $9.73 Volume=1M Target=$8.85 Stop=$10.12
POSITION: NVU SB - July $10p (-57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nvtl.html
Play Date: 06/10/2006
WFT (Weatherford International--$49.32; -0.14; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wft.html
STATUS: Put. WFT has of course been strong for a long time and partook in the April and early May scream higher with the energy and oil stocks. It peaked on no volume the second week of May, fell to the 50 day EMA (50.56), tried to hold and bounce into early June, but that attempt failed Wednesday. It tanked Thursday, recovered, and tapped the 50 day Friday. It then started to fade once more. Looking for WFT to have a tough time weathering the next drop, but that is to our advantage. A move to the target lands us a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 3.545M Avg Volume: 3.696M
BUY POINT: $48.95 Volume=3.8M Target=$45.75 Stop=$50.66
POSITION: WFT SJ - July $50p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wft.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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trade stock
stock split
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