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stock split, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ALTR; CWTR; NVTL; OXY; PGNX
Weekend play results:
SRCL: Low volume test of the 50 day EMA.
TXU: Still in the test, holding the 18 day EMA on below average volume.
CWTR: Diving lower
NVTL: Heading down
WFT: And dropping as well.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 06/12/2006
EXC (Exelon--$58.56; +0.74; optionable): Utility holding company, electricity. Potential split announcement in late July.
BACKGROUND: EXC last announced a 2:1 split on 1-27-04 at $65.20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/exc.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Solid volume Monday as EXC gapped higher, clearing the neckline in a 19 week base. Strong 7 to 4 accumulation in the base (7 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buying in the pattern, setting up the break higher toward a new all-time high. Money flow is leading the way as well, a good complement to the accumulation. Relative strength broke out ahead of EXC, showing its strength in the market. Right kind of sector for this kind of market.
Volume: 5.006M Avg Volume: 3.356M
BUY POINT: $58.95 Volume=4.5M Target=$67.85 Stop=$56.95
POSITION: EXC JK - Oct. $55c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/exc.html
Downside:
Play Date: 06/12/2006
BBY (Best Buy--$49.03; -1.36; optionable): Electronics stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bby.html
After Hours: $48.73
STATUS: Put. BBY broke below the 200 day SMA (49.63) Monday on stronger, above average volume after testing that level last Thursday and recovering. It is in a continuing downtrend below the 10 day EMA (50.87) after forming a broad top in April and early May and then rolling over hard the second week of May. It bounced off the 200 day last week but quickly ran out of gas. The rising volume Monday as it sliced back through the 200 day shows the sellers are taking it down. Looking to move in as BBY continues lower, and after hours it was down further. A move to the target lands us a 41% gain. That is our initial target, and if it continues down we will let it.
Volume: 4.855M Avg Volume: 3.514M
BUY POINT: $48.84 Volume=4M Target=$46.59 Stop=$49.72
POSITION: BBY SW - July $47.50p (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bby.html
Play Date: 06/12/2006
RJF (Raymond James Finl.--$28.06; -0.70; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rjf.html
STATUS: Double top. RFJ tried to form up a new base from late February to early May, but as it made the breakout attempt at the February high just below 32 volume failed it. RJF fell below the 50 day EMA (29.29), but it did not break down. It tried to recover in early June but then rolled over again. Last week it rebounded of 28 but failed at the 18 day EMA (28.97). Monday it broke lower on strong, above average volume in sympathy with the LEH earnings. Looking for a move through some support at 28 to give us the entry as RJF follows the money flow lower. A move to the target lands us a 65%ish gain. Using the lower strike options as they provide the best leverage.
Volume: 524.1K Avg Volume: 444.766K
BUY POINT: $27.88 Volume=455K Target=$26.35 Stop=$28.21
POSITION: JMF TW - Aug. $26.63p (-35 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/rjf.html
Play Date: 06/12/2006
X (US Steel--$57.85; -2.81; optionable): Metal fabrication
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/x.html
After Hours: $57.80
STATUS: Head and shoulders. X made a strong break higher in early May along with the rest of the metals, commodities, etc., and then ran out of steam along with the rest of the metals, commodities, etc. It tried to bounce in late May, early June but stalled just below 70, the point of the late April peak that formed the left shoulder. Monday it broke through the neckline at 60. Looking for this to take X lower from here. Our initial target is above the 200 day SMA (52.32), but we will let it run to that potential support level if it will A move to the initial target lands us a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 5.972M Avg Volume: 4.656M
BUY POINT: $57.62 Volume=5M Target=$54.05 Stop=$58.45
POSITION: X SK - July $55p (-34 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/x.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock split
stock recommendation
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