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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: FMD; ALTR; BWNG; CVTX; OXY; PGNX; WFT
Strong plays:
1) SVNT: Excellent strength and a nice pattern in the market selling.
2) BBY: Diving lower through the 200 day SMA
3) VSH: Ready to continue its move lower
4) X: Falling through recent support levels.
5) EGOV: Just waiting for a break in the selling.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 06/12/2006
LNT (Alliant Energy--$34.23; -0.31; optionable): Electric utilities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lnt.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Broke out from an 11 week base in late May, rallying to 35.17 on the high. It came back the past week on low volume, holding above the 18 day EMA (34.07) on the test, a good show of strength in a very weak market. The break higher took LNT to a 7 year high and this test is a nice consolidation of that move. Strong money flow is leading higher and relative strength made the breakout on the price move. Indeed, it is still heading higher even as LNT makes this test. Excellent 5 to 2 accumulation (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows nice buying through the base, setting up the breakout and the run to follow after this test.
Volume: 409.8K Avg Volume: 515.772K
BUY POINT: $34.88 Volume=550K Target=$40.00 Stop=$33.95
POSITION: LNT JG - Oct $35c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lnt.html
Play Date: 06/12/2006
SVNT (Savient Pharma--$5.72; +0.07; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/svnt.html
After Hours: $5.72
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. SVNT has set up another nice little base, using the 50 day EMA (5.46) as support. Positive accumulation and solid money flow. Nice second base after coming off of its low hit in 2004 with relative strength breaking out ahead of price, a good indication the stock price is going to follow. Holding up extremely well in the market selling.
Volume: 327.619K Avg Volume: 362.536K
BUY POINT: $5.98 Volume=544K Target=$7.22 Stop=$5.56
POSITION: UVP LA - Dec. $5c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/svnt.html
Downside Plays:
Play Date: 06/12/2006
BBY (Best Buy--$49.03; -1.36; optionable): Electronics stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bby.html
After Hours: $48.73
STATUS: Put. BBY broke below the 200 day SMA (49.63) Monday on stronger, above average volume after testing that level last Thursday and recovering. It is in a continuing downtrend below the 10 day EMA (50.87) after forming a broad top in April and early May and then rolling over hard the second week of May. It bounced off the 200 day last week but quickly ran out of gas. The rising volume Monday as it sliced back through the 200 day shows the sellers are taking it down. Looking to move in as BBY continues lower, and after hours it was down further. A move to the target lands us a 41% gain. That is our initial target, and if it continues down we will let it.
Volume: 4.855M Avg Volume: 3.514M
BUY POINT: $48.84 Volume=4M Target=$46.59 Stop=$49.72
POSITION: BBY SW - July $47.50p (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bby.html
Play Date: 06/12/2006
VSH (Vishay Intertechnology--$14.90; -0.11; optionable): Diversified electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vsh.html
STATUS: Put. We had looked at VSH as an upside play, but it failed that move. Last Thursday VSH gapped below the 50 day EMA (15.62). Tried to hold the line at 15 on Friday where there is some support, but was unable to do that on Monday. Looks ready to sell further and follow some diving money flow lower. A move to the target lands us a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 1.875M Avg Volume: 1.746M
BUY POINT: $14.85 Volume=1.8M Target=$14.00 Stop=$15.11
POSITION: VSH SC - July $15p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vsh.html
Play Date: 06/12/2006
X (US Steel--$57.85; -2.81; optionable): Metal fabrication
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/x.html
After Hours: $57.80
STATUS: Head and shoulders. X made a strong break higher in early May along with the rest of the metals, commodities, etc., and then ran out of steam along with the rest of the metals, commodities, etc. It tried to bounce in late May, early June but stalled just below 70, the point of the late April peak that formed the left shoulder. Monday it broke through the neckline at 60. Looking for this to take X lower from here. Our initial target is above the 200 day SMA (52.32), but we will let it run to that potential support level if it will A move to the initial target lands us a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 5.972M Avg Volume: 4.656M
BUY POINT: $57.62 Volume=5M Target=$54.05 Stop=$58.45
POSITION: X SK - July $55p (-34 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/x.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Play Date: 06/08/2006
BIDU (Baidu.com--$84.19; -2.41; optionable): Chinese internet
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bidu.html
After Hours: $83.88
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. Tried to break higher last week but has faded back to test, coming back to the 10 day EMA (84.38) on lower trade Friday and Monday. We wanted it to come back to the 10 day and test that move and it has done that. Now we are looking for a rebound on some better trade. To recap: BIDU has pulled back but has held over the top of the four week lateral move it formed after the early May gap higher. Strong money flow remains out in front. Going to get back on the horse if it shows us the upside move.
Volume: 2.654M Avg Volume: 2.011M
BUY POINT: $87.12 Volume=2.8M Target=$100.00 Stop=$81.55
POSITION: BDQ IQ - Sept. $85c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bidu.html
Play Date: 06/10/2006
EGOV (Nic, Inc.--$6.61; -0.17; no options): eGovernment services enabling governments to use the internet to provide services to businesses and US citizens.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/egov.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Still in the test, undercutting the 18 day EMA (6.61) on the low and then rebounding to hold that near support on the close. Volume was still well below average as it made the test, again showing no real selling. Money flow remains very strong. Even with the selling it is set up well once it abates. To recap: EGOV blasted higher to start June, breaking out of an 8 month flat base on a very large volume surge. It reached 7.24 on the breakout move and then spent the past week testing the move, coming back on much lower trade. That shows fewer sellers as the stock tests back as the short term profit takers sell out. Friday it faded but held the 10 day EMA on low trade. Excellent 9 to 4 accumulation in the base shows plenty of buying as EGOV ignored the market selling, set up its base, and broke out. Money flow continues to run higher. Relative strength is ready for a breakout along with the stock after this test.
Volume: 122.04K Avg Volume: 184.298K
BUY POINT: $6.82 Volume=275K Target=$8.38 Stop=$6.55
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/egov.html
Play Date: 06/07/2006
KNOL (Knology, Inc.--$9.66; -0.35; no options): Wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/knol.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Ignoring the market selling, still working on the tight handle to its short base, holding the 10 day EMA (9.58) on low, below average volume Monday. Excellent action in this weak market, just waiting for its trigger to break it out toward that new high. To recap: After a strong run from March through mid-May KNOL needed a rest as it approached its all-time high hit back in early 2004 when KNOL was a new issue. Short but nice 5 week base over the 50 day EMA (8.25) sporting 3 to 1 accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows buying even as KNOL took a breather. Good shakeouts the past week as KNOL tested down to the 18 day EMA (9.30) intraday and rebounded. This action is setting up its next breakout.
Volume: 202.356K Avg Volume: 217.822K
BUY POINT: $10.41 Volume=323K Target=$12.50 Stop=$9.68
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/knol.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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