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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: EGOV; LH; SMSI; UARM
Strong plays:
1) ABI: Strong volume as ABI flies off the 50 day EMA
2) GRMN: Leader recovering in the market recovery and lots of volume
3) KNOL: Sweet pattern
4) SVNT: Still looking nice
5) BBY: Doji at the 18 day EMA.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 06/14/2006
ABI (Applera Corp-Applied Biosystems--$29.93; +1.09; optionable): Systems, etc. for genomics research
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abi.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. ABI broke out from an 18 week reverse head and shoulders base in late May, gapping higher on the move. It rallied to 31 and then tested this month, coming back to the 50 day EMA (28.78) and filling the gap as it did. Volume exploded Wednesday as ABI jumped off that support level, making a higher low. Money flow is leading higher and relative strength broke out on the move. Looks ready for a new 4.5 year high. Nice market leader that held its ground and is ready to continue higher.
Volume: 3.247M Avg Volume: 1.315M
BUY POINT: $30.12 Volume=1.6M Target=$36.00 Stop=$29.21
POSITION: ABI LF - Dec. $30c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/abi.html
Play Date: 06/14/2006
ACTS (Actions Semiconductor--$10.62; +0.09; no options): Chinese system-on-a-chip products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acts.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. A new issue in November 2005, ACTS moved laterally through mid-March. It broke sharply higher and rallied through late May, reaching 12 on the high. It spent the past four weeks testing the 50 day EMA (10.63), showing a big doji at that level Wednesday, reaching below that support and rebounding. Strong money flow. Looking for a volume move off of this support; volume has been low and below average for a month. About time.
Volume: 133.923K Avg Volume: 277.56K
BUY POINT: $11.11 Volume=416K Target=$13.35 Stop=$10.55
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/acts.html
Play Date: 06/08/2006
BIDU (Baidu.com--$79.40; +1.20; optionable): Chinese internet
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bidu.html
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. Taking another look given the action. BIDU fell through the 18 day EMA (81.29) Tuesday on volume, looking puny. Wednesday it checked up, gapping higher and showing a doji as it held the lows in the recent 5 week range. Looking for BIDU to jump higher on rising trade to make us a nice trade (or more). Initially a move to the prior high at 90 is a good target, but if it gets some momentum it can run. To recap: BIDU has pulled back but has held over the top of the five week lateral range it formed after the early May gap higher. Strong money flow remains out in front. Going to get back on the horse if it shows us the upside move.
Volume: 3.11M Avg Volume: 2.65M
BUY POINT: $81.38 Volume=2.8M Target=$95.00 Stop=$79.38
POSITION: BDQ IP - Sept. $80c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bidu.html
Play Date: 06/14/2006
CRZO (Carrizo Oil & Gas--$28.38; +1.82; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crzo.html
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. CRZO has made a pair of lows at the 200 day SMA (26.22) the past 5 weeks. It sold with the energy stocks the past week, tapped the 200 day on the Tuesday low and then gapped higher Wednesday on strong volume. Setting up a double bottom but we are looking for a momentum move on this strong trade taking it off the 200 day. Looking for it to move through the 50 day SMA (28.59) on continued solid volume to make a play up to the May high. That move gives us a 42%ish gain on the options.
Volume: 1.475M Avg Volume: 388.072K
BUY POINT: $28.72 Volume=475K Target=$32.00 Stop=$27.78
POSITION: QOW JE - Oct. $25c (82 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/crzo.html
Play Date: 06/14/2006
GRMN (Garmin Ltd.--$89.67; +6.11; optionable): GPS devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/grmn.html
After Hours: $90.00
STATUS: GRMN led the move into May, gapped higher early that month, but then topped out at 100. It then started to do the wiggle move, bouncing up and down in the selling between 85 and 98. Tuesday it crashed lower, falling through the 50 day EMA (88.25). Wednesday it was right back in the game, rebounding back through that level on strong trade. Looking to step in for a momentum move as GRMN continues this recovery. For now looking at a trade, but will let it run if it will. A move to the target lands us a 45%ish gain
Volume: 2.686M Avg Volume: 1.164M
BUY POINT: $90.88 Volume=1.5M Target=$98.00 Stop=$88.12
POSITION: GQR JR - Oct. $90c (55 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/grmn.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Play Date: 05/31/2006
GILD (Gilead Sciences--$56.94; -0.08; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gild.html
After Hours: $56.91
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still working laterally below the 50 day EMA (57.71), showing another doji on below average volume. Looking for that break over that resistance level on a good surge in volume to give us the trade higher. Has some room to run for us.
Volume: 3.916M Avg Volume: 5.071M
BUY POINT: $58.15 Volume=7M Target=$69.00 Stop=$56.00
POSITION: GDQ KA - Nov. $57.50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gild.html
Play Date: 06/07/2006
KNOL (Knology, Inc.--$9.75; +0.21; no options): Wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/knol.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still excellent action as it works laterally in its handle along the 18 day EMA (9.37) on low volume. It is just biding its time, preparing for a big breakout move. To recap: After a strong run from March through mid-May KNOL needed a rest as it approached its all-time high hit back in early 2004 when KNOL was a new issue. Short but nice 5 week base over the 50 day EMA (8.35) sporting 3 to 1 accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows buying even as KNOL took a breather. Good shakeouts the past week as KNOL tested down to the 18 day EMA intraday and rebounded. This action is setting up its next breakout.
Volume: 153.391K Avg Volume: 215.288K
BUY POINT: $10.41 Volume=323K Target=$12.50 Stop=$9.68
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/knol.html
Play Date: 06/12/2006
LNT (Alliant Energy--$33.32; -0.46; optionable): Electric utilities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lnt.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Slipped back to the 50 day EMA (33.24) on low, below average volume. It held that level, fading as the rest of the market that sold off rebounded. It is moving opposite the rest of the market, so this test is simply letting it reload to set up a better entry. Getting set for the next move. To recap: Broke out from an 11 week base in late May, rallying to 35.17 on the high. It has made the test, and on low volume in a weak market. The break higher took LNT to a 7 year high and this test is a nice consolidation of that move. Strong money flow is leading higher and relative strength made the breakout on the price move. Indeed, it is still heading higher even as LNT makes this test. Excellent 5 to 2 accumulation (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows nice buying through the base, setting up the breakout and the run to follow after this test.
Volume: 451.5K Avg Volume: 515.642K
BUY POINT: $34.15 Volume=550K Target=$40.00 Stop=$33.95
POSITION: LNT JG - Oct $35c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lnt.html
Play Date: 06/12/2006
SVNT (Savient Pharma--$5.71; +0.12; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/svnt.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Minding its own business as the market did its selling and as it rebounded Wednesday. SVNT is working on the right shoulder to its 10 week base, holding the 18 day EMA (5.61) as it prepares to break higher. To recap: SVNT has set up another nice little base, using the 50 day EMA (5.47) as support. Positive accumulation and solid money flow. Nice second base after coming off of its low hit in 2004 with relative strength breaking out ahead of price, a good indication the stock price is going to follow. Holding up extremely well in the market selling.
Volume: 164.001K Avg Volume: 360.445K
BUY POINT: $5.98 Volume=544K Target=$7.22 Stop=$5.56
POSITION: UVP LA - Dec. $5c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/svnt.html
Downside:
Play Date: 06/12/2006
BBY (Best Buy--$51.40; -0.29; optionable): Electronics stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bby.html
STATUS: Put. BBY is struggling to get through the 18 day EMA (51.66) as we anticipated after gapping up on the strong flat screen sales. Tuesday BBY showed a doji after trying to clear that level. Looking for the rollover here. To recap: BBY broke below the 200 day SMA (49.68) Monday on stronger, above average volume after testing that level last Thursday and recovering. It is in a continuing downtrend below the 18 day EMA after forming a broad top in April and early May and then rolling over hard the second week of May. It has bounced twice off the 200 day, but cannot clear the 18 day EMA. Looking for volume to remain strong as BBY continues back down from this near resistance. A move to the target lands us a 45% gain.
Volume: 6.31M Avg Volume: 3.671M
BUY POINT: $50.95 Volume=4M Target=$48.25 Stop=$51.75
POSITION: BBY SX - July $52.50p (-49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bby.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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