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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers:
Weekend play results:
IDEV: Gapped higher but closed flat on lower trade. Testing the move & setting up to move higher.
KNOT: Still looks solid despite the market selling.
RMD: Slipped below the 50 day modestly but on very low trade. Still solid.
CSX: Turned over at the 50 day but no volume.
SMH: Turned lower after testing the 18 day EMA.
TEX: Up and down session on average trade.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 06/19/2006
CONR (Conor Medsystems--$24.49; -0.10; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/conr.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Strong volume last Wednesday as CONR jumps off May low at 22, showing a lot of pop at that prior low. Looks to have set up an 11 week base at the 200 day SMA (23.33), stalling out some Monday with a doji just below the 50 day SMA (24.86); indeed CONR tapped that on the high and faded on below average volume. No problem with that as it may form a handle, i.e. a lateral move that shakes out easy sellers and clears the way for the breakout. Looking for a strong volume move over the 50 day SMA to start the play.
Volume: 307.111K Avg Volume: 388.086K
BUY POINT: $24.95 Volume=582K Target=$29.95 Stop=$23.31
POSITION: QAP KE - Nov. $25c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/conr.html
Play Date: 06/19/2006
ODFL (Old Dominion Freight Line--$31.11; +0.31; no options): Trucking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/odfl.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Split in early December as it worked on a 5.5 month ascending base. It blasted higher in mid-April, surging from 26 to 34 on that breakout and run. In the subsequent market selling ODFL has tested the move, fading back to the 50 day EMA (30.34) on mostly below average volume. Volume shot higher Thursday and Friday as ODFL bounced off 29 and through the 50 day. May take a day or two of rest and then continue higher, following the strong money flow that is rising ahead of price. Strong leader with excellent sales and earnings growth. This breakout test has set it up for a new break to an all-time high.
Volume: 216.666K Avg Volume: 292.845K
BUY POINT: $31.52 Volume=439K Target=$37.85 Stop=$30.05
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/odfl.html
Play Date: 06/19/2006
SUNH (Sun Healthcrea Group--$9.19; +0.23; no options): Long-term care facilities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sunh.html
After Hours: $9.23
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume jumped Monday as SUNH started the breakout from a neat little 7 week base formed using the 50 day EMA (8.29) as support. Strong move Monday, but it gave back 80 cents off the high though still holding the breakout. This is part of a much larger 1.5 year double bottom with handle. Getting lots of interest and ready to move in as it continues the breakout move.
Volume: 324.717K Avg Volume: 187.164K
BUY POINT: $9.27 Volume=281K Target=$11.15 Stop=$8.62
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sunh.html
Downside:
Play Date: 06/19/2006
AGE (A.G. Edwards--$50.03; +0.10; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/age.html
STATUS: Put. AGE made something of a triple top April to early June and then collapsed two weeks back in the hard 'Fed scare' selling. It fell to price support at 48 from the early 2006 highs and bounced. It made it back to the bottom of the April to June range, but showed a tight doji Monday; that indicates the stock is ready to turn back down. Looking to move in as it does and ride it lower. It has yet to fill the gap from late March, and it is going to do that before it can really make any further upside. A move to the target lands us a 46%ish gain.
Volume: 1.08M Avg Volume: 534.108K
BUY POINT: $49.84 Volume=700K Target=$47.35 Stop=$50.55
POSITION: AGE TJ - Aug. $50p (-42 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/age.html
Play Date: 06/19/2006
AXE (Anixter International--$45.77; -1.25; optionable): Wholesale electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/axe.html
STATUS: Put. AXE broke out from an 11 week trading range above the 50 day EMA (48.21) in late April, rallying to 52 on the high. It tested, coming back to the 50 day EMA. It bounced but made a lower high and rolled over. It fell through the 50 day, bounced to test, and then rolled over on volume the past two sessions. Looks ready to head lower after no volume on that second top attempt. A move to the target lands us a 44%ish gain.
Volume: 444.9K Avg Volume: 261.831K
BUY POINT: $45.54 Volume=275K Target=$43.00 Stop=$46.31
POSITION: AXE TI - Aug. $45p (-39 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/axe.html
Play Date: 06/19/2006
FRK (Florida Rock--$46.30; -0.62; optionable): Cement
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/frk.html
STATUS: Put. FRK ran with most of the materials stocks from February to May. At that level it peaked just below the October 2005 high (68), tried to rally again but only matched the April high and on no volume. It rolled over from there and tanked. Last week it rebounded to the 10 day EMA (47.29). Monday it gapped above the 10 day and then rolled over on a strong shot of rising, above average volume. Looking to move in and let the stock roll lower and break some support at 45 and give us a nice run. Our initial target is 43, and a move to that point lands us a 42%ish gain. If it diving at that point, we will let it go further.
Volume: 1.106M Avg Volume: 782.511K
BUY POINT: $46.12 Volume=785K Target=$43.00 Stop=$47.32
POSITION: FRK TI - Aug. $45p (-38 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/frk.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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