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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: BRLI; EGOV; GRMN; MRY; SMSI; DVA; OXY; RTI; X
Strong plays:
1) CONR: Nice pattern has set up to the upside
2) AGE: Doji below the 10 day EMA indicates it is ready to fall
3) FRK: Tried to move through the 10 day EMA but rolled over on a volume jump.
4) KNOT: Nice intraday shakeout.
5) TEN: Excellent action
6) ALTR: Ready to roll lower
7) SMH: Stalled at the 18 day EMA again.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 06/19/2006
CONR (Conor Medsystems--$24.49; -0.10; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/conr.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Strong volume last Wednesday as CONR jumps off May low at 22, showing a lot of pop at that prior low. Looks to have set up an 11 week base at the 200 day SMA (23.33), stalling out some Monday with a doji just below the 50 day SMA (24.86); indeed CONR tapped that on the high and faded on below average volume. No problem with that as it may form a handle, i.e. a lateral move that shakes out easy sellers and clears the way for the breakout. Looking for a strong volume move over the 50 day SMA to start the play.
Volume: 307.111K Avg Volume: 388.086K
BUY POINT: $24.95 Volume=582K Target=$29.95 Stop=$23.31
POSITION: QAP KE - Nov. $25c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/conr.html
Play Date: 06/19/2006
ODFL (Old Dominion Freight Line--$31.11; +0.31; no options): Trucking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/odfl.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Split in early December as it worked on a 5.5 month ascending base. It blasted higher in mid-April, surging from 26 to 34 on that breakout and run. In the subsequent market selling ODFL has tested the move, fading back to the 50 day EMA (30.34) on mostly below average volume. Volume shot higher Thursday and Friday as ODFL bounced off 29 and through the 50 day. May take a day or two of rest and then continue higher, following the strong money flow that is rising ahead of price. Strong leader with excellent sales and earnings growth. This breakout test has set it up for a new break to an all-time high.
Volume: 216.666K Avg Volume: 292.845K
BUY POINT: $31.52 Volume=439K Target=$37.85 Stop=$30.05
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/odfl.html
Downside:
Play Date: 06/19/2006
AGE (A.G. Edwards--$50.03; +0.10; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/age.html
STATUS: Put. AGE made something of a triple top April to early June and then collapsed two weeks back in the hard 'Fed scare' selling. It fell to price support at 48 from the early 2006 highs and bounced. It made it back to the bottom of the April to June range, but showed a tight doji Monday; that indicates the stock is ready to turn back down. Looking to move in as it does and ride it lower. It has yet to fill the gap from late March, and it is going to do that before it can really make any further upside. A move to the target lands us a 46%ish gain.
Volume: 1.08M Avg Volume: 534.108K
BUY POINT: $49.84 Volume=700K Target=$47.35 Stop=$50.55
POSITION: AGE TJ - Aug. $50p (-42 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/age.html
Play Date: 06/19/2006
FRK (Florida Rock--$46.30; -0.62; optionable): Cement
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/frk.html
STATUS: Put. FRK ran with most of the materials stocks from February to May. At that level it peaked just below the October 2005 high (68), tried to rally again but only matched the April high and on no volume. It rolled over from there and tanked. Last week it rebounded to the 10 day EMA (47.29). Monday it gapped above the 10 day and then rolled over on a strong shot of rising, above average volume. Looking to move in and let the stock roll lower and break some support at 45 and give us a nice run. Our initial target is 43, and a move to that point lands us a 42%ish gain. If it diving at that point, we will let it go further.
Volume: 1.106M Avg Volume: 782.511K
BUY POINT: $46.12 Volume=785K Target=$43.00 Stop=$47.32
POSITION: FRK TI - Aug. $45p (-38 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/frk.html
Play Date: 06/19/2006
TXT (Textron--$86.67; +0.93; optionable): Bell helicopters, Cessna airplanes, finance, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/txt.html
STATUS: Put. Head and shoulders. TXT formed an 11 week top from mid-March to early June, then cascaded lower to start the month. It hit the 200 day SMA (82.04) on that run lower, then bounced last week to test the breakdown. It continued higher Monday, tapping the 18 day EMA (88.23) on the high then rolling back down, closing with a gain but giving back almost $2 of the move. That took it back up roughly to the neckline of the head and shoulders, the resistance after that breakdown. Showing a tombstone doji at the top of the bounce and ready to turn back down. A move to the target lands us a 41%ish gain.
Volume: 1.424M Avg Volume: 967.12K
BUY POINT: $86.45 Volume=1.2M Target=$82.90 Stop=$87.88
POSITION: TXT TQ - Aug. $85p (-39 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/txt.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Play Date: 06/14/2006
ACTS (Actions Semiconductor--$11.05; +0.15; no options): Chinese system-on-a-chip products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acts.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Tapped the 50 day EMA (10.67) on the intraday low and rebounded for a modest gain but on volume that was barely measurable. Still holding up extremely well and looking for some serious trade as it bounces off the 50 day. To recap: A new issue in November 2005, ACTS moved laterally through mid-March. It broke sharply higher and rallied through late May, reaching 12 on the high. It spent the past four weeks testing the 50 day EMA, showing a big doji at that level last Wednesday, reaching below that support and rebounding. Strong money flow. Looking for a volume move off of this support; volume has been low and below average for a month. About time.
Volume: 48.439K Avg Volume: 276.297K
BUY POINT: $11.11 Volume=416K Target=$13.35 Stop=$10.55
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/acts.html
Play Date: 06/17/2006
KNOT (The Knot--$18.41; +0.11; no options): Wedding services via the internet
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/knot.html
After Hours: $18.45
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice reach down to the 50 day EMA (17.47) on the low and rebound for a modest gain. Good intraday action, shaking out the weaker holders. Money flow is still rising ahead of price. Nice. To recap: KNOT has formed an 11 week base with a rather jagged cup, but after surging up the right side of the pattern in June is has come back to form a nice handle at the 50 day EMA the past two weeks. Solid action as the market sold, using the weakness to shake out the sellers and put the finishing touches on its new base, the third in this run. That means it is not overextended on this move. Positive accumulation and surging money flow; leading the way for KNOT's next breakout.
Volume: 120.921K Avg Volume: 139.74K
BUY POINT: $18.67 Volume=210K Target=$22.50 Stop=$17.36
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ctknot.html
Play Date: 05/24/2006
SMDI (Sirenza Microdevices--$11.65; +0.15; no options): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/smdi.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Nice tight doji Monday over the 18 day EMA (11.40) Monday as SMDI continues the test of the nice Thursday price and volume surge higher. Like it. Just needs to show a clear break over 12. To recap: SMDI looks to have put the finishing touches on its 6 week pullback to test the strong early May break higher. Want to see that strong volume as it moves through the buy point. Seems incongruous it would be ready to rally when the chips look ready to fall, but it has shown contrary strength all during its move.
Volume: 343.571K Avg Volume: 501.375K
BUY POINT: $12.12 Volume=677K Target=$15.12 Stop=$11.27
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/smdi.html
Play Date: 06/12/2006
SVNT (Savient Pharma--$5.55; -0.04; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/svnt.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Nice lower volume doji at the 50 day EMA (5.49) Monday as SVNT continues eh lateral move over the 50 day EMA that is forming the right shoulder to its base. Being patient and letting it finish its pattern and show us the break higher. To recap: SVNT has set up another nice little base, using the 50 day EMA as support. Positive accumulation and solid money flow. Nice second base after coming off of its low hit in 2004 with relative strength breaking out ahead of price, a good indication the stock price is going to follow. Holding up extremely well in the market selling.
Volume: 241.038K Avg Volume: 371.583K
BUY POINT: $5.98 Volume=544K Target=$7.22 Stop=$5.56
POSITION: UVP LA - Dec. $5c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/svnt.html
Play Date: 06/17/2006
TEN (Tenneco Automotive--$24.92; -0.08; optionable): Original equipment auto parts (emission control and ride control products)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/ten.html
STATUS: Flat trading range. Nice tight doji over the 50 day SMA (24.55) on very low, below average volume Monday. Nice day of rest after the strong move to end last week. May take another day or so to rest before breaking higher, but very nice action in a weak market, setting up the next move. To recap: TEN rallied well in April, hitting just over 27 on the high. That was the peak of that break higher as it gapped lower to end April and then started the current 8 week lateral move along the 50 day EMA. Low volume as it worked through the base and then volume started edging higher early last week during a shakeout, and then surged Thursday and Friday as TEN jumped back above the 50 day EMA with the look that it wants to break out from its trading range. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buying as TEN sets up for the next move higher. It has the volume. Seems incongruous that an auto parts maker would be rallying, but TEN is setting up to do so just as it has done frequently.
Volume: 246.8K Avg Volume: 483.14K
BUY POINT: $25.21 Volume=490K Target=$30.00 Stop=$23.85
POSITION: TEN JE - Oct. $25c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ten.html
Downside:
Play Date: 06/17/2006
ALTR (Altera--$17.56; -0.12; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/altr.html
After Hours: $17.55
STATUS: Put. Still ready to head lower as ALTR tapped at the 10 day EMA (17.89) Monday and faded. Volume was light. Still a buy as it moves lower. To recap: ALTR made us some solid scratch on the last leg lower and after the late week bounce it is setting up to turn lower once more. It tried to get back through the 10 day EMA Thursday and Friday, but both sessions it faded. Similar to the indices, ALTR has made two runs lower since the May peak, and this little low volume rebound is setting up the next leg lower. Looking to enter on further weakness even though it is just at the 10 day EMA; a downtrend using the 10 day as resistance is a strong downtrend. A move to the target lands us a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 2.621M Avg Volume: 5.42M
BUY POINT: $17.57 Volume=5.5M Target=$16.00 Stop=$18.00
POSITION: LTQ UP - Sept. $17.50p (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/altr.html
Play Date: 06/17/2006
CSX (CSX Corp.--$63.69; -0.66; optionable): Railroads
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/csx.html
STATUS: Head and shoulders. Not much volume Monday as CSX reached lower but then rebounded to close just below the 10 day EMA (63.72). Still set to follow that money flow lower. To recap: CXS broke down from a seven week topping pattern after a strong run from November 2005 to early May. It was one of the stocks that exploded higher in May after an already strong run; blow off top. It tumbled to the 50 day EMA (65.07), tried to hold, then broke below that level to start June. It bottomed at 60 and bounced last week, tapping the 50 day on the Friday high and backing off some. This takes it back up just below the right shoulder lows, a natural resistance point on top of the 50 day EMA. Looking for it to roll over here and follow the money stream lower. A move down to the target lands us a 50%ish gain. If it falls on through the target with authority, we will let it continue down.
Volume: 1.498M Avg Volume: 2.268M
BUY POINT: $63.69 Volume=2.3M Target=$59.65 Stop=$65.31
POSITION: CSX TM - Aug. $65p (-51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ctcsx.html
Play Date: 06/17/2006
SMH (Semiconductor Holders Trust--$32.89; -0.18; optionable): Semiconductor ETF
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/smh.html
After Hours: $32.83
STATUS: Put. Tapped the 18 day EMA (33.39) on the Monday high and then rolled over. Volume was low as it was Friday. Would like to see more trade but after this test of downtrend resistance it looks ready to head lower. To recap: The chips have led each move lower in this sell off, starting the second leg in early June with a failed test of the 18 day EMA. SMH ended the week with a Thursday and Friday test of the 18 day on lower, below average volume, showing a tombstone doji Friday. As the name suggests, that is not a real bullish indication after a bounce higher. As it occurred just below the 18 day EMA, the resistance in this downtrend, it looks ripe to turn lower and continue the decline. A move to our initial target lands us a 48%ish gain. If it keeps falling from there, we will let it.
Volume: 10.552M Avg Volume: 18.289M
BUY POINT: $32.88 Volume=20M Target=$31.35 Stop=$33.48
POSITION: SMH TZ - Aug. $32.50p (-39 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ctsmh.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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