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Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ANN; KNOT; MRY; OXY
NEW PLAYS:
Downside:
Play Date: 06/20/2006
WFT (Weatherford International--$46.38; -1.04; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wft.html
STATUS: Put. Looking to run with WFT again. Low volume top in early May. Fell to the 50 day EMA (49.68), held for three weeks then folded a week back. Low volume bounce the past week that could only get to the 10 day EMA (48.13) on the rebound. Starting to backslide Tuesday, and looking for more to the downside. A move to the target lands us a 43%ish gain.
Volume: 2.852M Avg Volume: 3.798M
BUY POINT: $46.18 Volume=3.8M Target=$43.05 Stop=$46.88
POSITION: WFT TI - Aug. $45p (-38 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wft.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/24/2006
SMDI (Sirenza Microdevices--$12.00; +0.35; no options): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/smdi.html
STATUS: Test breakout. One of those smaller chips we said looked perky. Volume moved higher Tuesday as SMDI bounced up off the 18 day EMA (11.46) in its 6 week consolidation of the February to early May run. Coming to life and looks ready to make its move.
Volume: 510.856K Avg Volume: 504.272K
BUY POINT: $12.12 Volume=677K Target=$15.12 Stop=$11.27
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/smdi.html
Downside:
Play Date: 06/19/2006
AGE (A.G. Edwards--$50.33; +0.30; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/age.html
STATUS: Put. Still ready to fall with a much lower volume tap at the 10 day EMA (50.49). Looking for this bounce to kiss the 10 day goodbye and head to lower elevations. Still has a gap way down at 46 to fill. Getting ripe. To recap: AGE made something of a triple top April to early June and then collapsed two weeks back in the hard 'Fed scare' selling. It fell to price support at 48 from the early 2006 highs and bounced. It made it back to the bottom of the April to June range, but showed a tight doji Monday; that indicates the stock is ready to turn back down. Looking to move in as it does and ride it lower. It has yet to fill the gap from late March, and it is going to do that before it can really make any further upside. A move to the target lands us a 46%ish gain.
Volume: 636.3K Avg Volume: 534.108K
BUY POINT: $49.84 Volume=700K Target=$47.35 Stop=$50.55
POSITION: AGE TJ - Aug. $50p (-42 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/age.html
Play Date: 06/19/2006
FRK (Florida Rock--$46.36; +0.06; optionable): Cement
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/frk.html
STATUS: Put. Doji below the 10 day EMA (47.12) as FRK still struggles at that level, banging its head there the past three sessions. Still looks ready for its third run lower. To recap: FRK ran with most of the materials stocks from February to May. At that level it peaked just below the October 2005 high (68), tried to rally again but only matched the April high and on no volume. It rolled over from there and tanked. Last week it rebounded to the 10 day EMA. Monday it gapped above the 10 day and then rolled over on a strong shot of rising, above average volume. Looking to move in and let the stock roll lower and break some support at 45 and give us a nice run. Our initial target is 43, and a move to that point lands us a 42%ish gain. If it diving at that point, we will let it go further.
Volume: 737.8K Avg Volume: 782.511K
BUY POINT: $46.12 Volume=785K Target=$43.00 Stop=$47.32
POSITION: FRK TI - Aug. $45p (-38 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/frk.html
CONTINUING PLAY TABLE:
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ABI 06/14 Test 50 30.50 +0.38 30.44 36.40 1.7M 1.6M 29.65
Current. Nice move up the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Meeting some resistance at 30.50.
ACTS 06/14 Test 50 11.44 +0.39 11.11 13.35 56K 416K 10.55
Buy Not Issued. Not enough volume to enter the play. Will let test back.
ANN 06/05 Asc Bse 40.60 +0.89 39.87 46.55 1.2M 1.3M 39.00
Current.
AYE 06/10 Asc Bse 35.26 -0.15 37.41 44.65 1.6M 1.4M 36.31
Current.
BMRN 05/20 Dbl btm 13.86 -0.06 13.88 16.60 709K 2M 13.21
Current.
BRLI 06/08 Asc Tri 20.49 -0.30 19.81 23.88 334K 145K 20.00
Current. Volatile session tapping 21.79 at the intraday high, but gave it back on lower, but strong volume. Still in good shape.
CONR 06/19 Dbl btm 24.04 -0.45 24.95 29.95 175K 582K 23.31
Buy Not Hit.
CRZO 06/14 Test 20 27.19 -0.96 28.72 32.00 524K 475K 28.48
Stock has not made the move we were we were looking for so will drop.
EGOV 06/10 Test BO 7.21 -0.22 6.90 8.44 570K 275K 7.15
Current.
FMD 05/22 Test 50 50.27 -0.57 46.14 55.00 610K 1M 48.68
Current.
FORR 06/06 Test BO 26.29 -0.13 26.70 31.94 31K 172K 26.05
Current. Ease back holding the 18 day MVA on low volume. Should be ready to bounce from here.
FVE 05/17 DB hdl 10.40 -0.08 11.15 13.65 172K 559K 10.77
Current.
GILD 05/31 DB hdl 55.24 -0.87 58.45 69.00 4.3M 7M 56.85
Current. Continue to pullback on low volume holding the 200 day MVA. Stock should hold here and rebound.
GRMN 06/14 PreAnn 93.22 -1.14 92.05 99.95 1.3M 1.5M 91.45
Current. Nice test of the simple 50 day MVA and rallied back on average volume. Still in good shape.
HCR 05/10 Test BO 46.04 0.00 46.77 53.40 447K 750K 45.60
Current. Holding just below the 10 day MVA on low volume. Moving up after testing the 50 day MVA.
HMSY 06/17 Test BO 10.11 +0.13 10.78 12.95 127K 190K 10.03
Buy Not Hit.
KNOL 06/07 Cup hdl 9.01 +0.03 10.41 12.50 196K 323K 9.68
Buy Not Issued. Tested the 10 day MVA intraday (9.39), but gave it back on lower below average volume. Still forming the handle.
KNOT 06/17 Cup hdl 18.90 +0.49 18.88 22.72 167K 210K 17.69
Entered today. Bounced off the 10 day MVA for a great move on stronger above average volume.
LH 06/13 Test BO 61.77 +0.45 61.32 71.44 977K 1M 60.38
Current. Tapped 60.75 at the intraday low and rallied back on stronger above average volume making a 52 week high.
LNT 06/12 Test BO 33.31 -0.11 34.15 40.00 467K 550K 32.89
Buy Not Hit. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop, but will keep an eye on it.
MRY 06/15 Asc Bse 3.02 +0.06 2.80 3.58 396K 170K 2.72
Current.
ODFL 06/19 Test 50 31.40 +0.29 31.52 37.85 198K 439K 30.05
Buy Not Issued. Gapped up and ran to 32 on the high but frittered away most of the gain. Culprit: no volume, even less than Monday. Have to see just a pick up in trade to show us the move is continuing w/solid backing.
PRFT 06/13 Test 50 12.70 -0.17 13.15 15.75 206K 318K 12.55
Buy Not Hit. Pullback testing the 50 day MVA intraday on below average volume. Still in the pattern.
SABA 06/05 Asc Tri 6.21 -0.42 7.02 8.48 64K 175K 6.57
Current.
SMDI 05/24 Test 18 12.00 +0.35 12.12 15.12 511K 677K 11.27
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 12.45 at the intraday high, but gave it back on rising, but average volume. Did not enter the play because stock was coming off the day's high and volume was not there. Looking good. Needs to see more volume on upside play.
SMSI 05/24 Asc Bse 14.75 -0.48 13.47 16.30 651K 714K 14.21
Current. Typical pullback tapping 14.38 at the intraday low and rallied back on low volume. May continue to test back to 10 day MVA (14.40)
SVNT 06/12 Rv H&S 5.54 -0.01 5.98 7.22 220K 544K 5.56
Buy Not Hit.
TEN 06/17 Flat 24.97 +0.05 25.21 30.00 310K 490K 23.85
Buy Not Issued.
UARM 05/27 Test 50 37.63 -1.82 36.65 43.95 1.4M 1.4M 36.78
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back testing the 10 day MVA intraday on lower, but above average volume. May continue to test back to 10 day MVA (37.25). Testing the breakout.
XPRSA 06/10 Asc Bse 24.92 +0.39 24.37 29.24 228K 250K 23.65
Current.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AGE 06/19 Put 50.33 +0.30 49.84 47.35 636K 700K 50.55
Buy Not Hit. Another bounce testing the 10 day MVA intraday on much lower but above average volume. Unable to break through the 10 day MVA showing weakness.
ALTR 06/17 Put 17.46 -0.10 17.57 16.00 3.6M 5.5M 17.91
Current.
BBY 06/12 Put 52.93 +0.20 51.92 48.68 3.1M 4M 53.11
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 53.69 at the intraday high, but faded back to hold the 50 day MVA on lower below average volume. Showing weakness as stock makes third attempt to break through the 50 day MVA.
BWNG 06/10 Put 10.15 +0.14 10.52 9.65 1.1M 2.8M 9.82
Current.
CSX 06/17 Put 63.67 -0.02 63.69 59.65 1.4M 2.3M 65.31
Current. Tests the 50 day MVA at the intraday high, but still unable to break through after third attempt. Stock weak showing a doji on the 10 day MVA.
CVTX 06/10 Put 13.50 0.00 14.31 12.85 640K 1.6M 13.94
Current.
DVA 06/17 Put 47.73 -0.21 48.42 46.15 455K 850K 48.88
Current.
FRK 06/19 Put 46.36 +0.06 46.12 43.00 738K 785K 47.32
Buy Not Hit. Showing weakness as stock tries to move through the 10 day MVA intraday, but fails on low volume. Still in down trend. Fourth attempt to hold the 10 day MVA.
OXY 06/07 Put 92.33 -0.56 96.65 90.65 3.1M 3.8M 93.05
Current. Nice move down the 10 day MVA on low volume. Meeting some support here established in Feb, March and May.
PGNX 05/27 Put 21.70 +0.09 21.50 20.00 216K 300K 21.75
Current. Fell back from a test of the 50 day MA last week but
again did not move down to or thru 21. Need to see
it fall quickly or will close it.
RTI 06/15 Put 51.13 +0.15 53.35 47.05 698K 1M 51.05
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA intraday, but failed showing a doji on low volume. Showing its weakness. Still in downtrend.
SMH 06/17 Put 32.71 -0.09 32.88 31.35 13M 20M 33.33
Current. Moving down below the 10 day MVA on rising volume.
TXT 06/19 Put 86.78 +0.11 86.45 82.90 835K 1.2M 87.88
Buy Not Issued.
VSH 06/12 Put 15.03 +0.33 14.58 13.72 3.2M 1.8M 14.38
Current.
X 06/12 Put 60.85 -0.35 57.73 54.05 5.7M 5M 57.68
Current. Moving below the 10 day MVA on slightly above average volume.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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