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yahoo stock, us stock market
Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information. A "prior high" refers to the high at the start of a base.
For conserving space on listings of stop losses, the symbol (7%) indicates that the stop is 7% below the buy point.
Good movers: UTSI again, NVDA, THQI, CPWR, KRON, EAT, DFXI. Breakouts: SLNK, BBBY, AMAT, PSFT, LUV, KSS, MCHP, IGT, MIKE, HDI, GTK, and SYMC, among many others. Like they said on television today, it seemed like old times.
Stocks/Indexes from Tuesday's report:
LUV: Broke resistance of the down trendline on its breakout.
PII: Wow; strong volume today but not much of a move up in the pennant, which the stock is still holding. We'll see.
KSS: Broke out! Closed at 71.40, at its highs, on higher volume.
MCHP: Strong breakout!
BRCM: Moved higher on stronger volume, but the move was shorter with the stock tapping resistance on the high of 50.16. If the market pulls back, so can this one from here. Support at the 10 day MVA (46.27).
Indexes: The QQQ surged, but the Nasdaq is near resistance. The SOX has been strong for 2 days, and closed at it upper channel line (resistance). We are watching out for a pullback.
Previous plays:
CMNT: Up again in the handle, but may be slowing down. Volume higher but the move smaller today.
EAT: Ready to break out of the cup with handle (11-28 report)! Buy point is 28.78 on volume of 1.4 million or higher.
PENN: Sold below the 18 day MVA after doing so to the higher 10 day yesterday. Lost the handle on this move.
WEDC: Made a nice move up after yesterday's tap at the 50 day MVA. Looks ready to head higher!
SUBSCRIBER'S CHOICE:
CIEN (Ciena--$20.25; +1.52; optionable): Telecommunication
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cien.html
STATUS: Has formed an ascending wedge/pennant type pattern above and below its 50 day MVA (18.48), off the lows in CIEN's big 13-month base (around 9.50). High in the pattern is at 21.98. CIEN crossed back over the 50 day back in late October, then commenced formation of the pattern. Today it is back up to the level of the short term down trendline in the pattern, closing just below that resistance with volume soaring to 42.7 million (avg. 20.2 million). If this volume does not break CIEN over the trendline, look for another pullback in the pattern. Looking for a breakout over the pattern high, with aggressive entry points on a move over the trendline, currently at the 20.80 level. Money flow and relative strength are off the floor and trying to head higher. Target: 27
BUY POINT: 22.11 for the breakout. Stop: 20.56 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or January $17.50 calls to buy (EUQ AW).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cien.html
EXFO (Exfo Electro-Optical--$14.00; optionable): Electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/exfo.html
STATUS: This is a fiber optics stock that was issued back in July of 2000, currently showing decent price/volume action though below the 200 day MVA and deep in a base off highs near 90 (quite a fall but nothing we haven't seen many times over in so many technology and related stocks). EXFO moved back over the 50 day MVA in a strong run up mid-November this year, and has pulled back on lower volume in a kind of handle-type pullback, though the stock did not really make a steep enough correction before the "cup" that would qualify it as a true saucer or cup with handle. At any rate, EXFO bounded up today in the rally on strong volume of 361,600 (avg. 196,000), and looks ready to make a move on the November high at 15.60. However, in after hours trading the stock was back down below support after the company lowered its financial outlook for the first quarter of next year. The chart shows the stock with decent (and climbing) money flow, and excellent buying. We will have to see if this one can shake off the news and continue climbing in the base. Buy point on breakout is 15.73.
Best Plays:
1) PMCS: Looking for a covered call sale play when it runs out of gas.
2) WMT: Ready to break out.
3) KKD: A solid move through resistance today.
4) CHKP: Moving up in the handle.
New: This stock has been on the report previously (11-05), but we are including it tonight as an example of one that has made a good move in the rally and is near resistance, in this case the 200 day MVA. The market is close to resistance as well, and on a pullback we can look at selling calls on stock purchases. Does not mean it is ready just yet, but we are getting ready.
PMCS (Pmc-Sierra--$27.38; +2.84; optionable: Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pmcs.html
STATUS: After a solid move Tuesday, PMCS broke out and kept going in the rally today. Volume was up and strong at 15.2 million (average 10.9 million) on the move out of its cup with handle. We are targeting the 200 day MVA (28.78), and with the market also looking forward to some resistance we could see a pullback from there. Besides taking profits, we can sell calls to make money on the retreat and hang onto the stock for the next run. We could sell the December $25 calls (currently 3.30, would be about 4.30 at the target), and buy them back if the stock catches support around the 25 mark, netting about 11% on the drop and continue holding the stock as it moves back up.
BUY POINT: Riding positions toward the resistance at 28.78.
POSITION: On a drop back from resistance, December $25 calls to sell (SQL LE). We would look at buying them back upon catching support so we can keep the stock and let it continue to work for us.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pmcs.html
Updates:
WMT (Wal-Mart--$56.57; +1.40; optionable): Retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wmt.html
STATUS: This discount retailer had a good day and looks ready to break out of its cup with handle pattern (4 months in length); a strong performance in retailers across the board only helped (AZO, HD, among others). The stock shows a spiking high in November at 57.10, but a lower and more reasonable buy point was at 56.38, just beat by the stock today. Volume was high at 9 million (avg. 8.1 million), and we want to see that ratchet higher to continue this breakout. Showing high money flow and relative strength, we are looking at a target at 68.
BUY POINT: 56.65 on volume in the range of 12 million. Stop: 52.68 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or January $50 calls to buy (WMT AJ).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/wmt.html
PORTFOLIOS: Each report, we look at these to see which is in a buy position. We don't cover them all each time, just the ones that look ready to pick up a few shares.
THE LEADERS: New Leaders (new list): ACS, NVDA, DGX, FRX, LLL, CACI, AJG, KRON, MIKE, BMET, APPB, LOW, IDPH, TARO, MYL, IGT, VRSN
MYL: Forming a small ascending wedge above support; can break out for a move up to the 38 range (at 34.75 on the closing price today).
KRON: Extended the breakout for 2 days of solid gains. Not jumping in here, though.
IGT: A buy on the breakout up to 66.94, with volume hitting our target of 1.8 million (rising to 1.5 million today).
ACS: Moving up again, this time on a pop in volume near average levels. November high is at 97.45, at the level of the stock's upper channel line, so potential resistance there.
APPB: Extended its breakout with volume soaring. Looking for a test of the breakout before taking new potential positions.
UP & COMERS PORTFOLIOS: Here is the new portfolio list: BBBY, EPIQ, KKD, MMS, NDN, SRCL, CPRT, BJ, EBAY, THQI, KG.
KKD (Krispy Kreme Doughnuts--$38.23; +1.49; optionable): Leisure
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kkd.html
STATUS: Made a nice move over the short term moving averages just under 38, with volume rising nicely to 1.3 million (avg. 757,000). The move is off the 50 day MVA (36.25), and this is just the move we were looking for in the 11-29 report. KKD has pulled back in a handle to its 23-week base and now is making the desired bounce from the major support. Looking for a run up to the handle high at the 42 range for an initial target; on the breakout, target moves up to 51. The stock hit our aggressive buy point of 36.50 4 days ago, but did not take out the upper resistance until today. KKD is showing strong money flow and improving and positive buying.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 38.50 on continued rising volume. Stop: 35.80 (7%). Breakout: 42.18 on volume of 1.1 million or higher. Stop: 39.23 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or January $30 calls to buy (KKD AF; low open interests). Breakout: Stock and/or January $35 calls to buy (KKD AG; delta 0.69 but should improve as the stock moves up).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/kkd.html
BBBY: Breaking out and still a buy up to 35.55 before it hits 5% above the breakout point.
SRCL: Broke out as well! Volume contracted just a bit; still strong and above average.
EBAY: Made the buy point of 71.42 but closed back below that, showing a doji and looking ready to give us that test now; that could be a new handle forming to the stock's 5-month base.
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: New portfolio as selected by the subscribers. Some of these stocks are still struggling to move higher in their bases, and will likely continue to trade in close ranges just like the market. We'll be ready to catch them when they are ready to move. The new list: BRCM, CHKP, AMAT, JNJ, MSFT, AOL, HGSI, BUD, PXLW.
Old members: BRCM, CHKP, CSCO, EMLX, IDTI, INTC, JDSU, MVSN, NT, PWER, SUNW, VTSS
CHKP (Check Point Software--$42.02; +2.85; optionable): Computer Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chkp.html
STATUS: A jump up in the cup with handle base that formed at the bottom of the larger correction. Moving up on a strong volume surge (from below average levels) to 13.3 million; average is 9.6 million), CHKP gapped higher on the opening price (40.15) then continued up in the rally, only pulling back right at the end of the day. We are looking for the breakout here if volume continues to push higher; it has almost reached the minimum for a breakout. The stock is showing good money flow and positive buying. Target: 200 day MVA at 46.63.
BUY POINT: Breakout: 43.13 on 14.2 million or higher volume. Stop: 40.08 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or January $40 calls to buy (KEQ AH).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/chkp.html
MSFT: Has moved up from three days; volume shot higher and above average today with the stock closing just below the November high at 68.34. Buy point is 68.47, just over that resistance, with volume continuing to surge. This is an aggressive play with the stock already having moved like it has. We prefer to look for a pullback.
AMAT: Too extended on this breakout over the 200 day MVA so we will look for a pullback to that support. Super move, though!
PXLW: Lower volume (though still strongly above average) and a close just under the 200 day MVA. The stock did break the resistance intraday before pulling back below it.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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yahoo stock
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