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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: EEFT; EYE; GRMN; LIFC
Tuesday night play results:
ACTU: Down to the 10 day EMA, continuing the work on the handle.
CLHB: Lower volume test, holding at the 18 day EMA.
IWV: Doji below the 10 day EMA.
NVS: Held support on low volume.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 06/28/2006
AKAM (Akami Technologies--$33.46; -0.31; optionable): Internet software for delivery of content business processes
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/akam.html
After Hours: $33.46
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Bucked the market trend in the selling, setting up the current 7 week base around the 50 day EMA (31.61). Nicely formed pattern as AKAM sets up for the breakout to a new all-time high. Coming back the past two sessions to form the handle, tapping the 18 day EMA (32.26) on the low and rebounding on strong, above average volume. Relative strength is making the breakout ahead of price, a nice bullish touch to the base. Letting it make the test and then show us the breakout. Solid earnings and sales growth rates and in a strong market sector in a weak market.
Volume: 4.397M Avg Volume: 3.886M
BUY POINT: $34.11 Volume=5.8M Target=$40.95 Stop=$32.25
POSITION: UMU KG - Nov. $35c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/akam.html
Play Date: 06/28/2006
BOT (CBOT Holdings--$110.78; -2.22; optionable): Chicago options
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bot.html
After Hours: $110.80
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. The exchanges are hot despite the market, and BOT enjoyed a good week last week and is now testing that move, easing back to the 10 day EMA (109.41) this week on lower, below average volume. Huge money flow is leading higher, and after this test we are looking for BOT to follow it and continue higher in its 12 week base.
Volume: 282.3K Avg Volume: 333.5K
BUY POINT: $112.88 Volume=500K Target=$126.99 Stop=$109.22
POSITION: BOT IC - Sept. $115c (57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/bot.html
Downside:
Play Date: 06/28/2006
LTD (The Limited--$25.00; +0.06; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/ltd.html
STATUS: Double top. LTD was pretty solid through late May. Then it made a test of the 18 day EMA, rebounded with a gap higher on volume that matched the high of the week before. Then it died. It tumbled back through the 50 day EMA (25.75), rebounded to test, and then just slid lower the past week back to the June low and the April trading range at 25. It is trying to hold there, but it does not have the strength to hold. A move to the target lands us a 43%ish gain.
Volume: 1.048M Avg Volume: 2.416M
BUY POINT: $24.77 Volume=2.5M Target=$23.55 Stop=$25.05
POSITION: LTD TE - Aug. $25p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ltd.html
Play Date: 06/28/2006
VCLK (Valueclick--$14.49; -0.13; optionable): Internet advertising
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vclk.html
STATUS: Put. Formed a head and shoulders in December and January, then again March through May. It broke lower to start June and this rebound the past two weeks is its first test of the dump lower. It made it through the 18 day EMA (14.81) this week but it didn't take. Turning lower and looks ready to test again. A move to the target lands us a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 661.777K Avg Volume: 1.764M
BUY POINT: $14.38 Volume=1.8M Target=$13.12 Stop=$14.75
POSITION: QCS UC - Sept. $15p (-57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/vclk.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, AKAM, CCJ, CELG, FLR, GME, MGPI, MRVL, NVDA, SGMS, WM
AAPL: It broke through the March low on volume. Perhaps this is the 'scare them out' part of a double bottom. It will have to show it soon.
FLR: Got a mention tonight on 'Fast Money.' It is trying to set up for a break higher over 90.
MRVL: Getting even uglier.
NVDA: Surprising move here, jumping on stronger volume after the Tuesday break below the early June low. Maybe a reversal in progress.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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