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yahoo stock, us stock market
Begin Part 2 of 2
TEAM TRADES
I had been watching OCLR closely. Why? In our seminars we talk about stocks that build one base, breakout, hold above the pivot point on the next base, and then form another base to breakout of. Well, OCLR was one of those, and it had the prettiest cup with handle pattern forming over the past 5 months. It had pulled back in its handle, testing lower and lower with volume dropping each day. Then BOOM. Today it exploded up past the pivot point. It all happened in the first 10 minutes. What to do? We watched to see if it was going to come back and test the move, but it did not. So, we liked the pattern so much, we went ahead and entered a partial position, looking to see if we would get a further test later in the session to add more positions. It never happened. The stock did not sell back, but it did not take off either. We ended up not adding anymore positions for the session, deciding to see if we get a test tomorrow. If it holds and starts back up we will look at completing the buy.
WEDC is a stock that we had looked at before, and it pulled back to the 50 day MVA three sessions ago, forming a short double bottom on that moving average since early November, and started up off that level Wednesday. That got us interested and today it took off over the middle hump on a big volume surge. A nice breakout from a rather inexpensive semiconductor stock. We stepped in at 6.50 (no options), and we will look for more positions when it clears the November high at 7.45 on continued strong volume.
THE PLAYS:
Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information. A "prior high" refers to the high at the start of a base.
For conserving space on listings of stop losses, the symbol (7%) indicates that the stop is 7% below the buy point.
Good movers from the reports: OCLR in a super breakout, YHOO, PMCS, CATT, VRST
Stocks/Indexes from Tuesday's report:
CIEN (subscriber's choice): Pullback on lower volume.
EXFO (ditto): Yesterday's news didn't help.
PMCS: Broke resistance when we thought it could pull back!
WMT: Pulled back; volume was lower and below average.
KKD: Was higher today after breaking resistance yesterday on strong volume, which dropped back significantly (and below average) today.
CHKP: Pulling back on lower volume, a recurrent theme today.
Indexes: The QQQ held near yesterday's closing price, showing a doji with volume falling back below average. Can pull back here if the market does the same. Ditto on the SOX.
Previous plays:
BPFH: Strong breakout and now holding at support as volume falls back.
MCHP: Inched higher in the breakout.
PENN: Bounced back up in the handle!
PII: Tried to break out, but volume sank.
WEDC: Made a nice move up after yesterday's tap at the 50 day MVA. Looks ready to head higher!
SUBSCRIBER'S CHOICE:
NTIQ (Netiq--$35.12; -0.16; optionable): Business Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntiq.html
STATUS: Deep in its lengthy base of almost a year, off highs near $110, but off the September lows around 20. Upon crossing over the 50 day MVA mid-November, NTIQ formed an ascending wedge above the 18 day MVA (32.56), from which it broke out Wednesday on strong volume. As with many stocks today, however, NTIQ pulled back with a doji as volume dropped but not by much (2.3 million; avg. 1.3 million). The stock can test 34, at the level of some October and November prices that can provide support if volume keeps falling (if not, support at the 18 day MVA around 32). On a strong move back up, look for a buy point over 37 to clear out prices up to 36 and just over, aggressive positions on a bounce from the 18 day MVA (buy point over 34). Next level of resistance will be the 40 range and/or the August high at 42.45. Money flow looks good along with relative strength. Initial target is the 40 range.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ntiq.html
Best Plays:
1) HEPH: Moving up in the cup with handle.
2) WMI: Trying to break out.
3) PENN: A nice recovery move today.
New:
HEPH (Hollis-eden Pharm--$10.35; +0.56; no options): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/heph.html
STATUS: A cup with handle base of 15 months, and now the stock is moving up in the handle on strong volume (211,200; avg. 73,000), today using the 18 day MVA for support. The handle is pretty choppy, but settled down over the last week with prices drifting gradually down as we prefer, and volume dropping off well below average as well. That volume started building up since Tuesday until it shot up to today's levels. Looking for a breakout over 11.40, a November high. There is a "stray" high at 11.63 (actual monthly high), but on a continued strong move the stock should take that out, and we won't want to wait that long if the move is a good, solid one. Average daily volume below 100,000 but a good sector and decent pattern, and the stock shows huge money flow and excellent buying. Target: 14
BUY POINT: 11.53 on continued strong volume (minimum breakout volume is 110,000). Stop: 10.72 (7%).
POSITION: Stock only.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/heph.html
WMI (Waste Management--$29.57; +0.67; optionable): Materials & Construction
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wmi.html
STATUS: Moving up in the handle to a double bottom base; middle hump high is at 29.30. The stock moved up to that resistance on a run up in the second leg, and has since consolidated in the handle, bouncing up and down in a volatile fashion. Volume dropped back below average in the handle, however, and today WMI gave a nice move up from a Wednesday tight doji at the 10 day MVA (28.97). Volume was lower than we would like, down to 1.3 million (Avg. 2.1 million), but we will see if that can pick back up for a breakout over the handle high (November, at 29.67). Money flow looks good, relative strength moving up. This has been a hot sector recently. Target: 36
BUY POINT: Breakout: 29.80 on volume of 3 million or higher. Stop: 27.71 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or January $27.50 calls to buy (WMI AY).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/wmi.html
Update:
PENN (Penn National Gaming--$25.21; +2.06; optionable): Leisure
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/penn.html
STATUS: After selling below the 18 day MVA yesterday (at 23.76), the stock bounced up and is back in the handle to its 5-month cup base in a nice move. Volume was just lower but still strong at 254,000 (avg. 122,090). We are looking for a breakout over the handle (November) high at 26.76. Excellent money flow and buying. Target: 32. This is a base that formed at the top of a nice trend from the first of this year.
BUY POINT: Breakout: 26.89 on volume of 183,000 or higher. Stop: 25 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or January $22.50 calls to buy (UQN AX).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/penn.html
PORTFOLIOS: Each report, we look at these to see which is in a buy position. We don't cover them all each time, just the ones that look ready to pick up a few shares.
THE LEADERS: New Leaders (new list): ACS, NVDA, DGX, FRX, LLL, CACI, AJG, KRON, MIKE, BMET, APPB, LOW, IDPH, TARO, MYL, IGT, VRSN
MYL: Tried to make a move out of the small ascending wedge but volume was even lower below average. Will try again on a hold at support (short term MVAs).
IGT: Moved higher and almost to the 5% limit for buying in (66.94). Anyway the stock has climbed 4 days so time for a pullback. Volume lower.
NVDA: After a strong 2-day run, the stock pulled back on lower volume with a doji in a move typical of other stocks that made similar recent moves.
UP & COMERS PORTFOLIOS: Here is the new portfolio list: BBBY, EPIQ, KKD, MMS, NDN, SRCL, CPRT, BJ, EBAY, THQI, KG.
THQI: Tanked, selling down to the 10 day MVA on huge volume. No news other than initiated coverage by J.P. Morgan as a long-term buy.
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: New portfolio as selected by the subscribers. Some of these stocks are still struggling to move higher in their bases, and will likely continue to trade in close ranges just like the market. We'll be ready to catch them when they are ready to move. The new list: BRCM, CHKP, AMAT, JNJ, MSFT, AOL, HGSI, BUD, PXLW.
Old members: BRCM, CHKP, CSCO, EMLX, IDTI, INTC, JDSU, MVSN, NT, PWER, SUNW, VTSS
AMAT (Applied Materials--$45.48; -0.43; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amat.html
STATUS: Began the pullback we were waiting for, necessary after a strong 2-day breakout from the stock's ascending wedge. The move allowed AMAT to break the 200 day MVA (44.29), and that is the likely support on a the breather. The stock showed a doji as volume dropped back to average levels (18.5 million), the low tapping near the 200 day. We will look for a strong move back up from there or even this doji when the market rallies back. Target: 56. The stock has good money flow.
BUY POINT: 46.70 (over the breakout high, 46.58) on volume in the range of 25 million. Stop: 43.43 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or January $42.50 calls to buy (ANQ AV).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/amat.html
BRCM (Broadcom--$48.28; -1.21; optionable): Semiconductor: Integrated Circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brcm.html
STATUS: After a 2-day move back up to resistance at 50, BRCM pulled back again today. Turned back once again. The stock broke out of a cup with handle base at the end of November but couldn't break over that resistance, which has held it back since early May. An interesting pattern can begin to form here, a possible ascending wedge on a hold of support at either the 10 or 18 day MVAs coupled with a move back up. We also have to watch out for that double top that can form as well; if volume rises on any further selling, that is trouble to watch for, but BRCM has been a market leader, and unless the market rolls over we would be surprised to see BRCM do so. We like the way BRCM held on the previous pullback to the 43 range, and look for these support levels to assist the stock in posting higher lows as the pattern squeezes down. 45, at the 18 day MVA, is reinforced by an up trendline that connects mid-to-end of October lows and the December low, supporting our case (if it doesn't hold here). Volume was down to 14.7 million (avg. 14.5 million). We can look at taking aggressive positions on a move back up from the 45 range if the stock makes it that far, or wait for the breakout over the 50 range. On that move, we will look at taking positions with stock for the run, then on weakness as it tops out, sell covered calls on the purchases. The plan is to keep the stock, buying the calls upon hitting support and moving back up. Target: 60
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 47.75 on rising volume in a rally. Breakout: 50.29 on volume of 20 million or better. Stop: 46.77 (7%).
POSITION: Stock on the buy points. On topping: Sell January $52.50 or $50 calls (RCQ AX or AJ). Breakout: Stock and/or January $45 or $47.50 calls to buy (RCQ AI or AT).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/brcm.html
PXLW: Mission unstoppable! A super uptrend since late October. The stock has been catching itself on small pullbacks to support on the way up, and today broke through major resistance, the 200 day MVA. Volume was significantly lower today, to below average. We look for the stock to hold this new support level now.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
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