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Begin Part 3 of 3
TRDO ($31.20; +1.49): Forecast to announce a split in the beginning of December in conjunction with a board meeting. The company will not confirm the board meeting but based upon our research the board meeting should take place at this time.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trdo.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that TRDO has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-26-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Watching for an announcement, and we got a good run with the rally. TRDO broke back over the 50 day MVA (27.07) with huge volume, and after tapping back to 28.75 today it ran up again to close. However, volume was much lower at 292,100 (average 326,000). The current run could be finished, so with short-term positions taken on the momentum move we will consider taking profits. However, after the strong moves TRDO could be on the way to catching support on a drop and continue moving up to form a its cup. With an announcement we could get another abrupt run, and we will watch for that. The recent high is 33.79, so we are watching that for resistance.
STATUS: Aggressive: After a pullback to 27-28 on low volume, a move back over 29 on above average volume. Stop: 27 (7%).
BUY POINT: Stock and/or February $25 calls to buy (UNC BE).
WLP (Wellpoint Health Networks--$119.78; -0.63; optionable): Working on a date, but a pattern you can't refuse.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wlp.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that WLP has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-8-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: WLP is in a large cup dating back to late December 2000 (left side high: 120), having pulled into a series of rather jagged runs that first used the 200 day, then the 50 day, and now the short-term MVA's as support as it progressed. It has made a weak move back up from the 10 day MVA (118.82) this week, not getting the volume to produce a breakout. Today it tested the 10 day at its low, moving on volume that was down to 351,800 (average 716,000). We will see if WLP can set up again, perhaps with a test to the 117.50 range. The high from Wednesday was 120.99, with the recent intraday breakout spike at 122.90. Target on a good breakout: 132.
BUY POINT: From here: 123.02 on volume of 1.1 million. Stop: 115. After a test of the 18 day on low volume, 120.51 on volume of 1.1 million. Stop: 115.
POSITIONS: From here: Stock and/or January $120 calls to buy (WLP AD). Pullback: Stock and/or January $115 calls to buy (WLP AC).
PAST SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:
LUV (Southwest Airlines 19.34; -0.06; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/luv.html
STATUS: LUV broke out Wednesday, but volume did not crack the average. It hit 19.80 today but closed with a loose 'star' doji on lower volume (2.24 million; average 4.28 million). If it can hold the 19 level (breakout), we can still look at positions with stock on a move back up on volume in the 6 million range. Looking for long-term positions on this long-term winner and frequent splitter.
BUY POINT: After a low volume test of 19, a move over 19.40 on volume of 6 million. Stop: 18.04 (7%).
POSITION: Stock.
PRE-SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:
Watchlist:
CACI ($78.76; +0.29): Splits 2:1 effective 12-7-01. Made a very nice pre-split move Tuesday, tapping up to 81.19 before the move petered out. We play pre-splits to take a few points and get out on topping signs, and after Wednesday's we got a test down to 75 at the low today. We will see how it does post-split.
HRH ($60.95; +0.37): Splits 2:1 eff. 1-2-02. Not doing much, holding support (18 day at 59.69) on a test of the small breakout. It is creeping up on low volume now, so we could get a test of the 18 day again before another move. Recent high is 62.75.
FLO ($41.50; +0.07): Splits 3:2 on 1-3-02. Trying to hang onto the short-term MVA's (41.45), and today got a huge infusion of volume as it showed a doji (204,900; average 66,000). That can signal something is up, so we will watch for a move. The aggressive is over 42 on continued strong volume, with the move over the recent consolidation high at a buy point of 42.87 on strong volume, with stock and/or $40 calls to buy (FLO AH).
VAR ($68.60; +1.60): Splits 2:1 on or about January 16. Struggling now at the 50 day and 200 day MVA's (68.64 and 67.64), giving it up Wednesday and recovering a bit today. Not promising at the moment.
Plays:
LYTS (Lsi Industries--$25.55; +0.50; no options): Splits 3:2 effective 12-7-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lyts.html
STATUS: Holding in a handle to a cup, but after the solid recent move it is heading into the split. We will see if it can hold this pattern (10 day MVA at 24.93) through the split, and try a post-split breakout. We often get a slump post split, but with good patterns we can also see strength. Volume was very solid today as it tested below the 10 day and made a push up (28,400; average 24,800). Great money flow and buying.
PLAY: Breakout: 26.07 on volume of 37,000. Stop: 24.50. Stock only.
CHBS (Christopher & Banks--$43.16; +3.08; optionable): Retail apparel. Splits 3:2 effective 12-13-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chbs.html
STATUS: CHBS has been flirting with a breakout, but has not been able to hold it, closing off its highs and, yesterday, gapping up to a doji. Not the best action to set up a breakout, but news can make a difference, and good numbers from CHBS catapulted it up with a gap and run. Volume was solid at 459,000 (average 412,000). A bit far to chase now, but for existing positions we are still watching a possible target of 46. Again, if we see topping signs before the target, we will be ready to take profits, as we should with pre-splits.
KIM (Kimco Realty--$51.00; +0.34; no options): REIT. Splits 3:2 effective 12-24-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kim.html
STATUS: KIM broke out of the ascending wedge with great volume Wednesday, hitting a high of 51.10 before pulling back to close. It gapped back up today and closed with a 'hanging man' doji, which is a classic topping sign. As we do with pre-splits, we are sensitive to topping signs (even on breakouts), so on a drop we consider taking profits on positions, see if the stock catches support, and then moves back up strong for new positions. Targeting 55 initially.
PLAY: After a low volume pullback that holds the 50 range, a move back over 50.50 on continued strong volume.
CONTINUING CANDIDATES REMAINING PLAYS: When splits are not announced, we will keep the best split prospects on the report rather than continue to carry all of them in case there is a an unexpected announcement. We will continue to monitor the stocks that are trimmed and add them again when we ascertain a revised split announcement date.
Watchlist:
ACS ($97.13; +0.81): Cleared the upper channel today (from March 2001), but volume fell on the move (down to 305,400, average 699,200), so we will see if ACS can hold on. Neither strong moves up or down recently, so we still waiting for more of a pattern to develop, and still keeping a close eye on those stops. If we don't see strength on a move up soon, it may just drift back from here until it eventually intersects with the 50 day (currently 91.15).
AZO ($76.90; -2.25): What can we say after yesterday? In any event, although AZO pulled back a bit today with some lower volume profit taking, it is of course to extended to chase. So we are ride our current positions and protect our profits.
BJ ($41.33; -3.82): Followed the rebound by gapping way back to open, testing down to the original target (40) and then pulling back up to a loose "hammer" doji on huge volume of 3.42 million (average 800,100). Still weak, and on any remaining positions we will be cautious of another bounce. Dropping.
FLIR ($45.10; -2.22): Made some nice gains in the previous three sessions, closing in the range of the early November highs (47.50) Wednesday, but volume has remained steady, light and below average. FLIR saw some lower volume profit taking today, if it can hold here, we may still see a strong move up, but given the gains on weak volume, we still wouldn't be surprised to see another test back to the 50 day at 41.23.
JEC ($67.77; -2.21): Tested the 50 day again today, this time moving on slightly increased, above average volume of (255,200, average 206,600). We will see if it can hold, and will have to see increased strength carry a sustainable move over the short-term MVA's (69.50) before we can look to the upside. Looking weak, so it may take some time.
PEP ($47.48; -0.82): Gave up the 50 day Wednesday, and tested down toward the October lows (47) today. From here upside plays are unlikely and we are dropping for now.
RMD ($58.40; -1.65): After Monday's terrific breakout, RMD quickly pulled back, today testing toward the 50 day at 67.96 before pulling up to close at the 18 day (69.40) as volume has held steady at the breakout level (up slightly today to 432,100, average 211,700). Stopped out, so from here we need to see what it does with support before we can look for a stronger move up to trigger new upside positions.
SLM ($83.97; -0.78): The test continued today as SLM fell through the 50 day (84.28) on increased volume of 1.02 million (average 660,500). We have seen similar tests through the 50 day last for a few sessions and result in strong moves up, so we will give it some time and watch for continued strength on a move over the short-term MVA's (85.50) to set up a new play. It may take some time.
THC ($60.05; -0.65): THC gave us a very solid move up in mid-November, but followed a weaker test of the 50 day (58.49) with a weak bounce up. It barely moved in Wednesday rally and pulled back to support over the 10 day (59.93) today as volume fell to 1.27 million (average 2.08 million). Need to see support hold and strength on a move up from here. The aggressive buy point remains a move over the recent high (61.21) on above average volume, with stock and/or February $55 calls to buy (THC BK).
Plays:
TJX (TJX Companies--$37.00; +1.05; optionable): Retail. Didn't get the announcement yet, still researching a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tjx.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 4-8-98 with a board meeting. The stock price was $43. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-5-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Topping again. After making a decent bounce up from the 50 day earlier in the week, TJX gapped up but could not hold its move on Wednesday, and gapped up to close with a 'tombstone' doji today as volume increased to 1.92 million (average 1.35 million). The doji on a run, especially since it is right at its recent tops, indicates a drop, and given the recent rather choppy pattern, we wouldn't mind seeing TJX pull back into a more stable handle type consolidation over support (preferably drifting back on falling volume) and see that pattern set up a solid breakout. Until then, for positions taken on the gap up we will be ready for a drop and watch out for possible heavier selling through support (18 day at 37.04).
BUY POINT: After pulling back to support and holding a stable consolidation: a move back up on increased, above average volume. Could take a bit of time.
POSITION: Stock and/or January $35 calls to buy (TJX AG).
STJ (St. Jude Medical--$76.90; +1.94): Health Services.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stj.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that STJ has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-17-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: A breakout today, but on rather light volume. STJ has been drifting up the 10 day MVA (74.38) on below average volume in a handle-type consolidation (following a breakout of a small double bottom). It hardly responded to Wednesday's strong rally, but then broke out of the pattern today, on increased volume that just cleared the average at 818,200 (average 710,000). We were looking for volume in the range of 1 million to support a breakout. Given that and the weak action in the handle and the fact that is a short pattern (just over 5 weeks), we will judiciously protect profits here, as breakouts like this are prone to failure. Technically still a buy up to 78.80, but we need to see much stronger volume on a move up from here. STJ has made a solid run up over the past 19 months, occasionally dipping back to the 200 day MVA (last time in September) between bounces along the 50 day. Target: 83, but cautious.
BUY POINT: Still a buy up to 78.80, looking for increased volume of 1.1 million on the move. Stop: 72-73.28 (7%; 50 day at 71.48).
POSITION: Stock and/or January $70 or $75 calls to buy (STJ AN or STJ AO).
POST SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:
Watchlist:
AMHC ($34.55; +0.50): Split 3:2 effective 11-26-01. After the nice breakout it is now creeping up and showing some topping signs - a high volume "tombstone" doji Wednesday, and gapped up to close with another loose doji on much lower volume today (down to 212,500, average 136,800). Protecting profits, and from here we could get a pullback to the 10 day MVA (31.90). We can again look at something from there if it holds up.
ATK ($76.49; -1.16): Split 3:2 on 9-10-01. Hit our put target in a rather volatile trading range today. Looking weak for a further downside play, so we are dropping from the report for now.
PSC ($23.45; -0.60): Split 5:4 effective 12-3-01. Took a weak drop through the short-term MVA's today and isn't looking good for an upside play right now. Dropping for now.
Plays:
MIKE (Michael's--$31.78; +0.58; optionable): Split 2:1 effective November 27.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mike.html
STATUS: High volume reversal today. MIKE gave us a nice breakout of its somewhat choppy consolidation Wednesday, but could not continue the move today. It gapped up to a new all-time high of 33.47 to open, and then promptly reversed and fell all the way back to the breakout high to close as volume shot up to 1.54 million (average 621,400). Not a good sign - this action typically signals a further pullback, and that is what we are watching for now. We will consider taking profits on any remaining positions with a further pullback, and see where MIKE catches itself - looking to the 10 or 18 day MVA's (29.97 & 29.18 respectively) to provide support. MIKE has given us some great moves, and we are keeping tabs on it. Moves to the NYSE December 12.
PLAY: Nothing new for Friday.
PDLI (Protein Design Labs--$40.57; +1.01; optionable): Drugs - Biotech. Split 2:1 effective October 12.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pdli.html
STATUS: Topping? PDLI traded in a rather wide range today and ended the session by pulling well off the intraday high of 41.63 as volume dropped a bit but stayed strong at 4.64 million (average 2.32 million). The stock has enjoyed a terrific move out of its rather jagged handle (to a double bottom), gaining nearly 10% in just 2 sessions. It was not much of a pattern recently, so although we could see more of a move in a stronger market, we are carefully eyeing a pullback for taking some profits on short-term positions. If we see the move up from here we will continue to target 45 with current positions (left side high: 45.47), and judiciously protect profits along the way.
PLAY: From here (Very Aggressive): A move over 41.63 on continued strong, above average volume. Stop: 38.71 (7%). Stock and/or February $35 calls to buy (PQI BG).
WFMI (Whole Foods--$45.56; +1.34; optionable): Grocery stores. Split 2:1 on June 5.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfmi.html
STATUS: Nice move. WFMI broke from its lateral consolidation during yesterday's strong rally, but pulled well off the intraday high to close, so we were watching for a pullback to support. We saw something of that early on today, as WFMI tested back to the 10 day, but then caught itself and pushed up to a new all-time high of 46 before falling back a bit at the close as volume fell off a bit to 1.10 million (average 739,000). A slightly choppy move, but we will enjoy it for what it is and on steady or increased volume we can ride current positions toward the target (48). As for new or additional positions from here, given the falling volume on today's move and the fact that it nearly hit the 5% "breakout buy" range of 46.11 at the intraday high, we will wait for a lower volume pullback to hold support and watch for a stronger bounce up from there before we expand our current holding. WFMI made a couple of very strong moves in November, breaking to a new high mid-month before pulling into this lateral consolidation. It has held up well, but we will continue to carefully protect profits. Good money flow and relative strength. Target: 48.
PLAY: Aggressive: After a pullback holds 44 (10 day MVA at 43.14), a stronger move back up on above average volume, with stock and/or January $40 calls to buy (FMQ BH).
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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