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7/03/06 Investment House Daily
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Investment House Daily Subscribers:
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Fourth of July Schedule
Monday: Market open half session. Alerts as usual. Monday report will be market stats, play table with updated information.
Tuesday: Market closed. No report
Wednesday: Report resumes.
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MARKET ALERTS:
Target hit alerts: LIFC
Buy alerts: FWRD
Trailing stop alerts: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the Daily alert service you can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdly.htm
THE MARKET
The indices drifted higher in Monday's half day session as the general upside bias that started last Wednesday and then steamrolled higher Thursday still holds sway. The indices moved up toward next resistance with NASDAQ moving just through its 50 day EMA while SP500 and SP600 both moved through their 50 day SMA as they move toward the real test at the January and February tops. There they will likely find some resistance and need to perform some backing and filling.
Volume was of course half-day and pre-holiday light. That always makes it harder to move into plays, but with many leaders moving higher and with the follow through last week taking shape on Thursday even before the FOMC decision was announced, we dabbled in some positions.
The rest of the week brings no shortage of news, culminating with the jobs report Friday. Monday the ISM came in lighter than anticipated (53.8 versus 55.0), and construction was down for the second month (-0.4% versus +0.2% expected). That kept a data dependent/Fed dependent market feeling better about future rate hikes and thus the continued upside bias after Thursday.
MARKET SENTIMENT
VIX: 13.05; -0.03
VXN: 17.68; -0.21
VXO: 11.59; -0.85
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.96; 0
Bulls versus Bears:
Bears rose but so did bulls, and after kissing last week that just kept them from a crossover move that historically is a very strong indication of sentiment being really ripe for a move. With the strong price/volume and leadership move it looks as if the sentiment did its job.
Bulls: 37.4%, back up from 35.6% last week. That stalls somewhat the sharp decline the prior week (down from 38.7%), but still at a low level after a high at 53.2% at the April peak. It surpassed the 42.3% hit on the last low. The current level puts it below the May and October 2005 readings that saw new upside runs.
Bears: 36.3%, up from 35.6%, but not enough to crossover the bulls, typically a surefire indication that the market is ready to rumble. Still chasing the bulls and would have caught them but for the Thursday rally. Nice climb to a new post-2002 high as it eclipses the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005).
NASDAQ
Stats: +18.34 points (+0.84%) to close at 2190.43
Volume: 773.927M (-73.64%)
Up Volume: 512M (-954M)
Down Volume: 252M (-1.129B)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.47 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.48 to 1
New Highs: 91 (-41)
New Lows: 38 (-20)
The Chart: http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/^ixic.html
SP500/NYSE
Stats: +9.99 points (+0.79%) to close at 1280.19
NYSE Volume: 767.317M (-59.9%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.82 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.21 to 1
New Highs: 111 (-8)
New Lows: 53 (-27)
The Chart: http://investmenthouse.com/cd/^gspc.html
DJ30
Stats: +77.8 points (+0.7%) to close at 11228.02
Volume: 134M shares Monday versus 365M shares Friday.
The chart: http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/^dji.html
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2190.43
Resistance:
The 50 day EMA at 2189 is cracking
2205 is the December 2005 closing low
2218 is the August 2005 peak before the sell off through October 2005.
The 200 day SMA at 2228
2234 is the early June high
2240 is closing low in February range.
Support:
2185 to 2182 is the September 2005 peak and interim high from November 2005.
2177 is the December 2004 high.
2162 to 2155 from December 2005 and September 2006
2161 is the August 2004/April 2005 up trendline.
The 18 day EMA at 2146
2100 from the early and mid-2005 peaks
2063 is modest, soft support
2050 from the summer 2005 lateral range lows.
2045-47 from June and October 2005 lows and June 2004 highs
S&P 500: Closed at 1280.37
Resistance:
The late January peak at 1285
The early June high at 1288
1297.57 is the recent February high.
1315 is the May and May 2001 peaks
1317, the recent intraday highs from April.
1324 to 1329 from the October 2000 lows.
Support:
The 50 day SMA at 1275
1272 to 1268 is the November and December 2005 closing highs and March 2006 closing low
The 50 day EMA at 1268
The 200 day EMA at 1262.55
The 18 day EMA at 1257
1247 is an old trendline from the August 2003/August 2004/October 2005 lows.
1225 from the March 2005 high
1213 from December 2004 high to 1215
1205 from the August lows
s
Dow: Closed at 11,228.02
Resistance:
11,279 is the late May high
The March 2006 highs at 11,329 to 11,335
11,350 from the May 2001 peak
11,401 from the September 2000 peak and April 2001 highs
Support:
The 50 day SMA at 11,185
11,097 to 11,137 is the last peak from the February top.
The 50 day EMA at 11,077
11,044 is the January high.
10,965 from Q4 2000
10,931 is the November 2005 high
The 200 day SMA at 10,912
10,890 is the December 2005 closing high.
10, 737 to 10,730 from December and February lows
10,705 - 10,965 from July/August 2005 range top to bottom
10,678 to 10,665
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
July 3
ISM Index, June (10:00): 53.8 actual versus 55.0 expected, 54.4 prior
Construction spending, May (10:00): -0.4% actual versus 0.2% expected, -0.2% prior (revised from -0.1%).
July 5
Factory Orders, May (10:00): 0.1% expected, -1.8% prior
July 6
Initial Jobless Claims (8:30): 315K expected, 313K prior
ISM Services, June (10:00): 59.0 expected, 60.1 prior
July 7
Non-farm payrolls, June (8:30): 160K expected, 75K prior
Unemployment rate, June (8:30): 4.6% expected, 4.6% prior
Hourly earnings, June (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.1% prior
Average workweek, June (8:30): 33.8 expected, 33.8 prior
End part 1 of 2
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