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trade stock, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: CTRP; ININ; MRO
Weekend play results:
ENDP: Faded to test the recent move but on continued below average volume
FWRD: Doji, pausing from the nice move. Very strong in a weaker market.
IDEV: Doji testing the 10 day EMA on the low and rebounding
MSTR: Faded back after trying to run.
VIVO: Still working on the handle
DIOD: Fell back to the 18 day EMA, still in the handle
ILMN: Good volume and relative strength
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 07/05/2006
CIEN (Ciena--$4.52; -0.01; optionable): Telecom processing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cien.html
After Hours: $4.50
STATUS: Cup w/handle. One of the Q1 good movers, CIEN has set up a nice 13 week base in Q2, consolidating that move and setting up the next breakout and run. Solid surge to end last week with a big price and volume move Friday and now, as is usual, a test of that move. The test is on very low, below average volume. Nice set up for the break higher. Just want to see the move higher on a return of above average trade to give us the buy point.
Volume: 13.538M Avg Volume: 24.674M
BUY POINT: $4.68 Volume=30M Target=$6.85 Stop=$4.35
POSITION: EUQ JA - Oct. $5c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cien.html
Play Date: 07/05/2006
DIA (Diamonds Trust (DJ30)--$111.47; -0.73; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dia.html
After Hours: $111.48
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Strong move last week on the DJ30 surge, and now a nice, orderly low volume test of the 50 day EMA (111.06), testing that level on the Wednesday low and rebounding to recoup some losses. Something of a reverse head and shoulders pattern setting up another move after this test of the 50 day. Very nice set up for a move higher.
Volume: 3.459M Avg Volume: 8.141M
BUY POINT: $111.84 Volume=8.2M Target=$115.50 Stop=$110.89
POSITION: DIA IG - Sept. $111c (57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dia.html
Play Date: 07/05/2006
GRMN (Garmin Ltd.--$104.25; -2.21; optionable): GPS devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/grmn.html
After Hours: $103.90
STATUS: Test breakout. We took some gain on the GRMN positions Wednesday, deciding to book some before much evaporated as it makes this test following the strong move last week. Looking for a test of the 10 day EMA (101.83) and then a rebound to continue its breakout move from the 7 week double bottom with handle base. Leader that is testing and giving us a new entry point.
Volume: 1.261M Avg Volume: 1.326M
BUY POINT: $102.22 Volume=1.4M Target=$117.50 Stop=$99.00
POSITION: GQR JA - Oct. $105c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/grmn.html
Play Date: 07/05/2006
TZOO (Travelzoo--$33.74; +3.29; no options): Travel offers online
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tzoo.html
After Hours: $34.00
STATUS: Cup. TZOO made us a lot of money in Q1 on that huge surge in April. It needed a rest after that surge and the past 9 weeks it has done just that, coming back roughly to the 50 day EMA (29.45), holding that level for the past 6 weeks as it set its base. Wednesday TZOO surged higher on a strong shot of above average volume, its first above average trade in two months. Looks to be starting to form the right side of its base and we are looking to start positions here and let it run for us gain.
Volume: 2.123M Avg Volume: 1.417M
BUY POINT: $33.91 Volume=1.5M Target=$45.00 Stop=$31.54
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tzoo.html
Play Date: 07/05/2006
VLO (Valero Energy--$66.48; -0.42; optionable): Oil and gas refining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vlo.html
After Hours: $66.45
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nice 10 week base has formed, just starting to work on the handle the past three sessions. A big winner in 2005, it needed a blow and this base is giving it just that, coming back to the 200 day SMA (56.90) on the lows of the two legs, showing that the big institutions stepped in to support it. It looks as if it could take a couple more days to complete the handle, but we want to be ready for when it makes the breakout move.
Volume: 7.979M Avg Volume: 10.272M
BUY POINT: $67.21 Volume=15M Target=$79.00 Stop=$64.00
POSITION: ZPY LN - Dec. $70c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/vlo.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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