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stock recommendation, stock option
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ININ
Weekend play results:
FVE: Still working on the nice handle to the base
FWRD: Doji after the strong move.
ICUI: Fell back to the 10 day EMA on lower, below average volume.
IDEV: Testing the 10 day EMA and rebounding, still setting up the move.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 07/05/2006
DIA (Diamonds Trust (DJ30)--$111.47; -0.73; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dia.html
After Hours: $111.48
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Strong move last week on the DJ30 surge, and now a nice, orderly low volume test of the 50 day EMA (111.06), testing that level on the Wednesday low and rebounding to recoup some losses. Something of a reverse head and shoulders pattern setting up another move after this test of the 50 day. Very nice set up for a move higher.
Volume: 3.459M Avg Volume: 8.141M
BUY POINT: $111.84 Volume=8.2M Target=$115.50 Stop=$110.89
POSITION: DIA IG - Sept. $111c (57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/dia.html
Play Date: 07/05/2006
FLS (Flowserve--$54.59; -0.54; no options): Industrial flow management equipment for oil and gas industry, power generation, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fls.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nice surge last week on strong volume as FLS reported strong numbers, breaking higher from an 8 week base formed just below an all-time high. FLS double topped somewhat in April and May, then fell into this base. Nice break higher and now a low volume test this week of that breakout, forming a handle to set up the continued run. Strong money flow is leading the way higher. After this test of the 50 day SMA (54.08) we are looking for FLS to continue the move.
Volume: 528.6K Avg Volume: 608.632K
BUY POINT: $55.25 Volume=750K Target=$64.00 Stop=$53.89
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/fls.html
Play Date: 07/05/2006
GLD (Gold ETF--$62.50; +0.32; no options)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gld.html
STATUS: Reversal gap. GLD gapped lower the second week of June, worked laterally two weeks, then gapped higher to end the month. That is an island reversal. It rallied a bit higher Monday and Wednesday, showing a doji Wednesday. That indicates GLD may pullback some here before continuing higher, testing the 50 day EMA (60.89) intraday before rebounding. Thinking it will come back a bit more to test. Gold had the blow off top, but is now recovering as the Fed hinted it was nearer the end of the hiking. Want to be ready in the event it continues higher from here; it did test intraday toward the 50 day and rebounded.
Volume: 8.174M Avg Volume: 10m
BUY POINT: $62.68 Volume=10M Target=$72.00 Stop=$60.68
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/gld.html
Play Date: 07/05/2006
GRMN (Garmin Ltd.--$104.25; -2.21; optionable): GPS devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/grmn.html
After Hours: $103.90
STATUS: Test breakout. We took some gain on the GRMN positions Wednesday, deciding to book some before much evaporated as it makes this test following the strong move last week. Looking for a test of the 10 day EMA (101.83) and then a rebound to continue its breakout move from the 7 week double bottom with handle base. Leader that is testing and giving us a new entry point.
Volume: 1.261M Avg Volume: 1.326M
BUY POINT: $102.22 Volume=1.4M Target=$117.50 Stop=$99.00
POSITION: GQR JA - Oct. $105c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/grmn.html
Play Date: 07/05/2006
SCHN (Schnitzer Steel--$35.66; -0.90; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/schn.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Forming something of a reverse head and shoulders base the past 7 weeks, working on something of the handle the past three days as it tests the 50 day EMA (35.30). Undercut that level Wednesday and rebounded to hold it on the close. Want to see good volume come back in as SCHN makes the break higher. Has plenty of room to the upside.
Volume: 309.942K Avg Volume: 543.559K
BUY POINT: $36.38 Volume=800K Target=$43.75 Stop=$34.88
POSITION: SQQ KG - Nov. $35c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/schn.html
Play Date: 07/05/2006
VLO (Valero Energy--$66.48; -0.42; optionable): Oil and gas refining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vlo.html
After Hours: $66.45
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nice 10 week base has formed, just starting to work on the handle the past three sessions. A big winner in 2005, it needed a blow and this base is giving it just that, coming back to the 200 day SMA (56.90) on the lows of the two legs, showing that the big institutions stepped in to support it. It looks as if it could take a couple more days to complete the handle, but we want to be ready for when it makes the breakout move.
Volume: 7.979M Avg Volume: 10.272M
BUY POINT: $67.21 Volume=15M Target=$79.00 Stop=$64.00
POSITION: ZPY LN - Dec. $70c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/vlo.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, AKAM, CCJ, CELG, FLR, GME, MGPI, MRVL, NVDA, SGMS, WM
AKAM: Starting that test back that we were looking for before it continues the move higher.
CELG: Continuing the very nice low volume test this week as it continues holding the breakout.
FLR: Would like to see a bit of a test here before FLR starts back up.
GME: Nice move Friday has turned to much, falling back below the 200 day SMA.
MGPI: Still working on the base, trying to get through the 50 day EMA but thus far no luck. Setting up pretty well to give it the run, however.
MRVL: Options scandal hit home Wednesday.
NVDA: Turned back from the 200 day SMA on rising trade. Can again consider selling some July or August $20 calls.
WM: Gave back much of the Monday move, but WM is still working for the next break higher. A lateral move here for a few days would do it well.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
stock option
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