stock watch, stock split

Begin Part 4 of 4

MI (Marshall & Ilsley--$63.21; -0.09; optionable): Banking: Regional. We are researching a forecast date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mi.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that MI has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-24-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: MI is showing some more strength here. It has made several dips and bounces on high volume of late, following its breakout from a 'flying w' with handle in early November. Thursday it made another move to a new high with strong volume, resting Friday with a doji on much lighter volume (134,200; average 245,000). This is the fourth run up the short-term MVA's since the breakout, so we are very careful in playing fourth runs and often we do not get a fifth. We are also cautious given the volume, which has been just as strong on selling as with buying. We were looking at 70 on the original breakout, but at this point that is optimistic, so while we are still riding any positions, we are protective with profits.
BUY POINT: Very aggressive: A move over 63.50 on above average volume. Stop: 60.25.
POSITION: Stock and/or January or March $60 calls to buy (MI AL or MI CL).

TRDO (Intrado--$28.92; -2.28): Forecast to announce a split in the beginning of December in conjunction with a board meeting. The company will not confirm the board meeting but based upon our research the board meeting should take place at this time.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trdo.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that TRDO has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-26-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Have not gotten the announcement, but TRDO made a good run in the rally, breaking over the 50 day MVA (27.30) with huge volume. After a weaker move that followed, we were looking for a possible retreat, and got it Friday. The drop was rather severe, coming on increased volume (331,900; average 323,600), so we will watch carefully to see if it can hold support (10 & 18 day MVA's at 28.13 and 27.89). If it can catch support we will see if it can continue moving back up to form a cup. With an announcement we could get another abrupt run, and we will watch for that. The recent high is 33.79, so we are watching that for resistance.
STATUS: Aggressive: After a pullback holds 28 on lower volume, a move back over 29 on above average volume. Stop: 27 (7%).
BUY POINT: Stock and/or February $25 calls to buy (UNC BE).

WLP (Wellpoint Health Networks--$120.00; +0.22; optionable): Working on a date, but a pattern you can't refuse.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wlp.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that WLP has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-8-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: WLP is in a large cup dating back to late December 2000 (left side high: 120), having pulled into a series of rather jagged runs that first used the 200 day, then the 50 day, and now the short-term MVA's as support as it progressed. It has made a weak move back up from the 10 day MVA (119.03) this week, not getting the volume to produce a breakout. WLP has tested the 10 day at its low the last two sessions, tightening its candlestick to a doji Friday as volume remained low (256,400; average 714,000). We will see if WLP can set up again, perhaps with a test to the 117.50 range (18 day MVA). The high from Wednesday was 120.99, with the recent intraday breakout spike at 122.90. Target on a good breakout: 132.
BUY POINT: From here: 123.02 on volume of 1.1 million. Stop: 115. After a test of the 18 day on low volume, 120.51 on volume of 1.1 million. Stop: 115.
POSITIONS: From here: Stock and/or January $120 calls to buy (WLP AD). Pullback: Stock and/or January $115 calls to buy (WLP AC).

PAST SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:

FIC (Fair Isaac & Co--$64.15; +1.70; optionable): Business services.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fic.html
STATUS: Great breakout move this week. FIC made a fine breakout from its three-week handle Wednesday, and after a day of rest, powered up again on Friday. Volume has been excellent on the moves up, coming in at 312,700 Friday (average 182,000). It pulled bkc from 64 to close Friday, and we will see if it comes back to test its move, watching for a hold of the 63 level. If so, we can look at new or additional positions on a resumption of the move from there with a strong market. Good pattern and has continued to show strong money flow. Target: 70.
BUY POINT: After holding the 63 range on a low volume pullback, a run back up on increased volume. Stop: 59.50.
POSITION: Stock and/or January $60 calls to buy (FIC AL).

LUV (Southwest Airlines--$19.53; +0.19; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/luv.html
STATUS: Suspect move on weak volume. LUV broke out Wednesday on below average volume, and after gapping back toward the breakout point (19) and the 10 day MVA (18.94), LUV pushed up again Friday on even lighter volume (2.55 million; average 4.27 million). For the second time it reached up near 19.80 before pulling back, and we may be in for another test back here. We will see if it can continue to hold 19, but given the weak moves up it could fall back into the handle range (support at 18 day MVA, 18.53). We will need to get the volume we want to pick up long-term positions on this long-term winner and frequent splitter.
BUY POINT: After a low volume test of 19, a move over 19.40 on volume of 6 million. Stop: 18.04 (7%).
POSITION: Stock.

PRE-SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:

Watchlist:

HRH ($60.70; -0.25): Splits 2:1 eff. 1-2-02. Not doing much, holding support (18 day at 59.80) on a test of the small breakout. It is creeping up on low volume now, so we could get a test of the 18 day again before another move. Recent high is 62.75.

FLO ($40.64; -0.86): Splits 3:2 on 1-3-02. Dropped back again, testing its 50 day (40.06) for the third time in the last two weeks. The big volume doji on Thursday pointed to something happening one way or another, and FLO again disappointed.

VAR ($66.50; -2.10): Splits 2:1 on or about January 16. Keeps bleeding, so we are dropping, but will keep an eye on it.

Plays:

CHBS (Christopher & Banks--$43.59; +0.43; optionable): Retail apparel. Splits 3:2 effective 12-13-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chbs.html
STATUS: Good numbers from CHBS catapulted it up Thursday, gapping to a breakout (from an ascending wedge handle to a cup dating back to May) and then running up some more. It gapped back Friday but managed to push up again, hitting 44.20 on the high before retreating back to close. Volume was much lower, at 266,500 (average 413,700), so with existing positions we are preparing for a drop back. The target here has been 47.50 (left-side high), but with pre-splits we are quick to take profits, waiting for the stock to catch support and make another run.
PLAY: After a test of 41-42 on continued low volume, showing it has support, a move back up on above average volume. Stop:

SASR (Sandy Springs Bancorp--$45.13; +2.38; no options): Splits 3:2 on 12-21-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sasr.html
STATUS: Oh yes. SASR continued up Friday, hitting the buy point for a breakout from its ascending wedge pattern. Volume was reduced but still strong at 18,300 (average 16,900), and the move took the stock right to the limit of how far we are willing to chase a breakout (5% past the breakout point, which was 43). SASR has made a steady run up this year from the 22 range, and the ascending wedge has been forming since early October. Targeting 47, although after such an abrupt move we could get a bit of profit taking soon.
PLAY: After a lower-volume test of the 44 range, on a move back up on continued strong volume. Stock only. Stop: 41.50.

CONTINUING CANDIDATES REMAINING PLAYS: When splits are not announced, we will keep the best split prospects on the report rather than continue to carry all of them in case there is a an unexpected announcement. We will continue to monitor the stocks that are trimmed and add them again when we ascertain a revised split announcement date.

Watchlist:

ACS ($97.57; +0.44): Still anticipating an announcement, but there is no clear date. Reached to a new high again Friday (98.15), but pulled off of that level and closed with a loose doji on increased volume (670,600; average 696,500). Showing resilience, and we are keeping stops where we are comfortable (18 day MVA at 94.86) in case of a strong drop. We could get a steady drift along until its intersects with the 50 day (currently 91.40).

AZO ($76.20; -0.70): After the amazing breakout, AZO has settled back a bit on decreasing volume, showing a loose doji friday. Of course, still too extended to chase for new positions, but a beautiful breakout to have been in on.

FLIR ($46.00; +0.90): Made some nice gains this weak, reaching up toward the all-time (November) high at 49.55, but on low volume. Low volume moves are suspect, so we will see if it will hold up to set up another move or drift back (18 day at 43.36; 50 day at 41.42).

JEC ($66.40; -1.37): Gave up the 50 day on big volume (up to 338,500; average 208,400). Not a good sign, so we will see if it can make a quick recovery. If it tries to and fails to clear the 50 day, it could set up a put down to the 200 day (63.59). We will revisit early in the week.

RMD ($56.61; -1.79): After Monday's terrific breakout, RMD quickly pulled back, continuing down again Friday to close at the 50 day MVA (56.56; low Friday of 55.50). Stopped out, so from here we will see if it can hold, or if it gives up.

SLM ($84.75; +0.78): Managed to crawl back over the 50 day (84.30), but volume was sharply lower on the move up (576,900; average 657,000). SLM again pulled back from recent resistance at the short-term MVA's (85.44) to close. Not strong, but we have seen this stock test below the 50 day before, fidget a bit, and then recover. We will see.

THC ($59.85; -0.20): THC gave us a very solid move up in mid-November, but followed with a weaker rally to make double tops at 61. It has fallen back, but on weak volume, holding support at the 10 day MVA (59.83). The recent support of the 50 day is back at 58.54, so we will see if THC can hold here or if it needs to revisit that level.

Plays:

IGT (International Game Technology--$65.45; -0.59; optionable): Did not get the announcement.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/itg.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that IGT has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 3-5-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: IGT broke out of its cup with handle on decent volume Wednesday, continuing a run from the bottom of the handle at the 18 day MVA (then 59, now 61.57). A pretty good run, and Friday IGT tested back a bit, closing with a loose doji on increased volume of 1.33 million (average 1.2 million). The pattern indicates another possible test back (handle high was 63.62, 10 day MVA at 63.14), but we would want to see lower volume on the drop and a hold of support. If we get that, we can look at new or additional positions on a move back up.
BUY POINT: Pullback: After holding 63.62 on lower volume dip, a move back up on increased volume. Stop: 60. Still a buy on strength up to 66.80 (looking for increased volume). Stop: 62.12.
POSITIONS: Stock and/or January $60 calls to buy (IGT AL).

TJX (TJX Companies--$38.40; +0.21; optionable): Retail. Didn't get the announcement yet, still researching a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tjx.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 4-8-98 with a board meeting. The stock price was $43. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-5-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Trying but not making it. After making a decent bounce up from the 50 day earlier in the week, TJX has continued up but has been unable to hold moves over its high, pulling well back to close each of the last three sessions. Friday's move started with a gap down, but after hitting a new high at 38.79, it pulled back to close. Volume was much weaker on Friday's move, coming in at 1.09 million (average 1.35 million). The pattern is erratic, and it may need to test back at least to recent support at the 18 day MVA (37.18); Monday TJX tapped back to the 50 day (35.92), which is above the long-term trendline at 35.25. If it tests the 18 day, we will see if it can hold and perhaps consolidate to set up a better move this time. Of course, we are still looking for an announcement, which could finally could be the catalyst to a move it can hold.
BUY POINT: After pulling back to support and holding a stable consolidation: a move back up on increased, above average volume. Could take a bit of time.
POSITION: Stock and/or January $35 calls to buy (TJX AG).

STJ (St. Jude Medical--$74.09; -2.81): Health Services.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stj.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that STJ has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-17-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: How many times do you see it? STJ has experienced success, and just as it broke out of a double bottom with handle (although, as we have said, a suspect version of that pattern), it is downgraded on a valuation basis. Volume kicked in as the stock gapped down and hit 72.50 on its low before recovering to close back in the range of its handle and over the 18 day MVA (73.54). We will see how it reacts, and if it can hang onto support here or at the 50 day MVA (71.58), it could set up again.

POST SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:

Watchlist:

AMHC ($33.40; -1.15): Split 3:2 effective 11-26-01. Getting the pullback now, but Friday's dip was on much lower volume (119,600; average 139,300). Good action after the nice breakout, but we could see the stock test its 10 day MVA (32.17) before we get another move up. We will see if it holds that level, and if so look at a play from there. Post splits can be tricky as they can abruptly fall, but AMHC has looked really good on this breakout.

CACI ($42.26; +2.88): Splits 2:1 effective 12-7-01. Made a very nice pre-split move Tuesday, and after resting a bit was able to continue up with a solid move on the split. It has now moved almost 100% since its break from a consolidation in September, and the move has gotten steeper, so here we need to be cautious of an abrupt pullback. For any remaining positions kept through the split, we are carefully protecting with stops.

MIKE ($31.54; -0.24): Split 2:1 effective November 27. MIKE followed Thursday's strong reversal with a low volume test of the 10 day (30.25). We like the hold over support, but will keep watching to see if we get a further pullback and are ready to protect profits on any remaining positions. If it can hold support, we will watch for a stable consolidation to set up the next run. MIKE has given us some great moves, and we are keeping tabs on it. Moves to the NYSE December 12.

WFMI ($45.84; +0.28): Split 2:1 on June 5. Volume is falling as WFMI continues to move up. It closed well off the intraday high again Friday, so we are still riding current positions, and judiciously protecting profits. For new/additional positions, we are still waiting for a stable pullback to hold support in the 44 range (10 day at 43.63; 18 day at 42.21) and will watch for a stronger bounce up from there.

Plays:

PDLI (Protein Design Labs--$37.95; -2.62; optionable): Drugs - Biotech. Split 2:1 effective October 12.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pdli.html
STATUS: Before the Friday open, PDLI announced mixed results in the most recent trial for its new cancer drug and promptly gapped way down to open at the 10 day MVA (37.98). It tried to recover, pushing up toward the recent handle highs intraday, but couldn't hold on and fell back to the 10 day to close with a tight doji on sharply increased volume of 8 million (average 2.36 million). Prior to this, PDLI was showing some topping signs after giving us a good move out of the recent jagged handle (to a double bottom), so we were watching carefully for exit signals. It could go either way from here, with the recent strong support of the 18 day below at 37.13. We will see how it handles that, and we are also keeping in mind that with this high volume doji we could see another intraday bounce up (as we saw Friday), and that may provide a chance to get out with some profit intact. We need to see how this shakes out, so nothing new for now.

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

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