|
|
trade stock, top stock pick
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: FIZ; RTI
Wednesday night play results:
EZM: Faded back to the 10 day EMA on rising volume but still in the pattern.
FIZ: Nice strong break higher
PMTI: Don't like the action, gapping lower on volume. Will see if can set back up.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 07/13/2006
FTO (Frontier Oil--$33.10; -1.25; optionable): Oil & gas refining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fto.html
After Hours: $33.77
STATUS: Breakout test. FTO tested some new frontier the past week as it broke out from an 8 week double bottom with handle base to a new all-time high. After a run higher this week it started to come back Wednesday and again Friday, moving toward the 10 day EMA (32.65). Nice lower and below average volume on these moves show the sellers are not rushing in, but instead just testing the move on some profit taking. Looking for a test of the 10 day and a bounce to give us an entry. If it fades further we will let it make the move and then be ready when it holds and rebounds, but we think the 10 day will hold.
Volume: 3.277M Avg Volume: 3.413M
BUY POINT: $33.25 Volume=3.5M Target=$39.95 Stop=$31.15
POSITION: FTO JZ - Oct. $32.50c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/fto.html
Play Date: 07/13/2006
ICE (Intercontinental Exchange--$59.80; +1.30; optionable): Energy exchange
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ice.html
After Hours: $60.35
STATUS: Cup. ICE formed a reverse head and shoulders base the past 7 weeks at the bottom of a 9 week cup base that is still forming. This reverse H&S pattern often forms as the bottom of a cup base, and the stock then breaks higher from that base within a base. Strong volume to end the week as it moved higher off the right shoulder. Thursday it closed off the high (61.65) so it may test some before continuing the move. The 50 day EMA (57.23) was tapped on the low and that may be where it comes back to test. Very strong, however, and if it continues higher from here we are looking to accumulate some shares as the move off of this rounded bottom to form the right side of the larger base is often strong.
Volume: 2.345M Avg Volume: 1.309M
BUY POINT: $60.21 Volume=1.5M Target=$71.95 Stop=$57.00
POSITION: ICE IL - Sept. $60c (57 delta) or ICE LM - Dec. $65c (50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ice.html
Play Date: 07/13/2006
SU (Suncor Energy--$78.79; -0.50; optionable): Canadian tar sands
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/su.html
After Hours: $79.20
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. SU plunked back to the 50 day EMA (78.26) this week but held fast at that level, consolidating and forming a handle to its 12 week base. This pattern used the 200 day SMA (70.55) as support for the second leg, and that shows that while the stock corrected hard, it has institutional support and thus the continued basing action that is setting up a new breakout to a new high. May not do anything this week, but looking for a break higher over the next week from this strong stock. It is profitable with oil in the twenties though it says in its releases it is profitable at $40/bbl. Just being conservative.
Volume: 2.877M Avg Volume: 3.004M
BUY POINT: $80.55 Volume=4.5M Target=$92.95 Stop=$78.11
POSITION: SU LQ - Dec. $85c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/su.html
Downside:
Play Date: 07/13/2006
CX (Cemex SA--$56.54; -1.95; optionable): Cement
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cx.html
After Hours: $56.54
STATUS: Put. Gapped lower on the world events and volume was higher but it was still below average. Want to see trade continue to pick up on the selling. Gapped lower Thursday and failed a test of the 50 day EMA (58.55) intraday. A move to the target lands us a 41%ish gain, but it can fall further, and we will let it continue lower if it does.
Volume: 2.168M Avg Volume: 2.291M
BUY POINT: $56.24 Volume=2.5M Target=$53.70 Stop=$57.35
POSITION: CX TK - Aug. $55p (-38 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cx.html
Play Date: 07/13/2006
STTX (Steel Technologies--$17.52; -1.12; optionable): Steel & iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sttx.html
STATUS: Put. STTX is in a continuing downtrend after forming a broad top from December to April. It broke lower below the 200 day SMA (now at 24) in late April and trended below the 10 day EMA (18.54) for four rotations lower. In late June it rebounded to test the 50 day EMA (19.36), spending almost two weeks butting up against it. When a stock is trending lower it will use the 10 and 18 day EMA as resistance and then come up for air at the 50 day MA before resuming the move. Thursday STTX started lower again, fading sharply from the 50 day. Ready to move in and ride it lower. A move to the target lands us a 40%ish gain, but it can fall further than our initial goal, and we will let it if the selling is intense.
Volume: 111K Avg Volume: 200K
BUY POINT: $17.45 Volume=210K Target=$16.00 Stop=$17.75
POSITION: SFU TW - Aug. $17.50p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sttx.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
trade stock
top stock pick
|
