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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Thursday night play results:
HOLX: Faded through the 50 day EMA once again
HWAY: Fell through the 50 day EMA as well.
MAN: Continued knifing lower
TEX: Volume was up as TEX gapped higher but then rolled over negative.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 07/22/2006
BRLI (Bio-Reference Labs--$22.12; +0.82; optionable): Medical labs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brli.html
Earnings: Early August
STATUS: Test breakout. BRLI broke out from a 6 month ascending base in mid-June and had made its way higher since. It topped out near 22 in late June and early July, hanging in there as the market got rocky. In the July selling it tested the move, coming back to the 50 day EMA (20.24) on the Tuesday low and then started higher on volume to end the week, a stock of strength in a weaker market. Relative strength broke out again ahead of the stock and we are going to pick up some BRLI as it continues up through the early July high as it follows its money flow higher.
Volume: 213.731K Avg Volume: 148.956K
BUY POINT: $22.36 Volume=223K Target=$26.50 Stop=$20.89
POSITION: BJQ KX - Nov. $22.50c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/brli.html
Play Date: 07/22/2006
GPRO (Gen Probe--$53.33; +0.03; optionable): Clinical diagnosis products. Possible split announcement on 7-31-06 after the close w/earnings
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 9-5-03 at $59.50
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gpro.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. GPRO surged in early May on a strong earnings result but after a run to 60 it could not hold the move. It fell back and into the current 10 week base with a clear breakout point right at 54. Strong money flow is leading higher as it sets up for another breakout and a run to a new all-time high. Like how it formed back up on its own schedule, did not let the selling take it out this month, and is now at the breakout point. It ended the week with a modest fade to test near support, bouncing back on solid, above average volume. Looking for this little dip to set the stage for the break higher.
Volume: 413.715K Avg Volume: 389.716K
BUY POINT: $54.65 Volume=570K Target=$62.95 Stop=$52.05
POSITION: PSU KK - Nov. $55c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gpro.html
Play Date: 07/22/2006
HMSY (HMS Holdings--$10.82; -0.13; no options): Healthcare information services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hmsy.html
STATUS: Ascending base. HMSY has formed a 7 week ascending base along the 18 day EMA (10.60), bucking the trend of selling in the market as it sets up for a break higher versus the indices setting up for breaks lower. Positive 2 to 0 accumulation in the short base (2 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume) shows buying continued in the market selling. HMSY is set up for a 7.5 year high with the next breakout. Volume has faded the past two weeks as it worked mostly laterally. Want to see trade hop back up as HMSY comes off of the late week tap at the 10 day EMA (10.68) near support. Money flow is leading out and after this test back to end the week we are looking for HMSY to make the break and continue its move.
Volume: 68.063K Avg Volume: 150.158K
BUY POINT: $11.31 Volume=225K Target=$13.35 Stop=$10.52
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/hmsy.html
Play Date: 07/22/2006
ININ (Interactive Intelligence--$14.71; +1.94; no options): Interactive intelligence software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/inin.html
After Hours: $14.87
Earnings 7-25-06 after the close
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Made us some money on its prior run and looks ready to run again. Broke out from a 6 week base in mid-June and cleared 16 on the high. In the selling last week it fell back to test the breakout, holding at the 50 day EMA (12.53) on the Thursday close and then bolting higher Friday on strong volume. Looking to pick it off as it continues higher.
Volume: 588.245K Avg Volume: 180.634K
BUY POINT: $15.21 Volume=271K Target=$18.25 Stop=$12.39
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/inin.html
Downside:
Play Date: 07/22/2006
BVF (Biovail--$21.72; -0.16; optionable): Drug delivery systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bvf.html
Earnings: Early August
STATUS: Put. BVF formed a head and shoulders in April through early June and broke lower that month. It held 22, rebounded, and tested the 50 day EMA (23.17) but started back down once more. Last week BVF recovered but could only make the 18 day EMA (22.15) on the bounce, right at that 22 level that acted as support in June; double resistance. Friday volume turned back up as it turned lower. Looks as if BVF has slipped into a continuing downtrend here and we are looking to ride the next leg lower. With the August options a move to the target lands 55%. With the October, 41%.
Volume: 712.7K Avg Volume: 706.212K
BUY POINT: $21.55 Volume=750K Target=$19.38 Stop=$21.96
POSITION: BVF VX - Oct. $22.50p (-53 delta) or BVF TX - Aug. $22.50p (-62 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bvf.html
Play Date: 07/22/2006
DITC (Ditech Networks--$7.63; -0.32; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/ditc.html
Earnings: Mid-August
STATUS: Put. DITC formed a broad top March through May then broke sharply lower through the 50 day EMA (now at 8.78). Tried to hold the 200 day SMA (8.80), spending most of June and the first part of July at that level. Then broke lower once more and is riding down the 10 day EMA (8.14). Friday DITC broke lower. It looks ready to fill the gap higher from November 2005. That move lands a 48% gain.
Volume: 227.319K Avg Volume: 295.775K
BUY POINT: $7.55 Volume=300K Target=$6.45 Stop=$7.92
POSITION: QZD VU - Oct. $7.50p (-41 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ditc.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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