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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Thursday night play results:
BW: Fell back to the 10 day EMA as it continues to try to set up for the break higher.
UHS: Held steady on very low trade, still poised for the move higher.
MAN: Dove lower on continued strong volume.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 07/22/2006
CHL (China Mobile--$29.26; -0.23; optionable): Chinese wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chl.html
Earnings: Released in June
After Hours: $29.60
STATUS: Cup w/handle. CHL gapped higher Wednesday, coming up off the handle of its 10 week base that is setting it up for a breakout to a 6 year high. Good technical action, using the 200 day SMA (25.58) as support on the lows and the 50 day EMA (27.88) as it came back to test and form the handle where the short term profit takers sell out. Excellent upside volume during the handle. Solid fundamentals to go along with this solid pattern. Looks as if it is going to test the 10 day EMA (28.90) and then continue and give us the breakout.
Volume: 802K Avg Volume: 683.622K
BUY POINT: $30.05 Volume=1M Target=$34.95 Stop=$28.48
POSITION: CHL LF - Dec. $30c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/chl.html
Play Date: 07/22/2006
ININ (Interactive Intelligence--$14.71; +1.94; no options): Interactive intelligence software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/inin.html
After Hours: $14.87
Earnings 7-25-06 after the close
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Made us some money on its prior run and looks ready to run again. Broke out from a 6 week base in mid-June and cleared 16 on the high. In the selling last week it fell back to test the breakout, holding at the 50 day EMA (12.53) on the Thursday close and then bolting higher Friday on strong volume. Looking to pick it off as it continues higher.
Volume: 588.245K Avg Volume: 180.634K
BUY POINT: $15.21 Volume=271K Target=$18.25 Stop=$12.39
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/inin.html
Play Date: 07/22/2006
MDRX (Allscripts Healthcare Sol.--$17.39; -0.12; optionable): Clinical software, information solutions to US physicians.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mdrx.html
Earnings: 8-1-06
STATUS: Cup base. After a strong January and February surge to start the year, MDRX fell into the current 4.5 month base, using the 200 day SMA (16.84) as support, a level that shows institutional support as they pick up shares at a lower price. As part of this base MDRX formed a reverse head and shoulders the past 10 weeks, trying to breakout Wednesday but fading back to close the week given the market selling. It is still well positioned to break higher from this intermediate base within a larger base. Strong money flow is leading higher and accumulation is positive. Sold back some late in the week with the market, but volume was extremely low, well off the upside volume leading up to that. Friday a big doji with tail down to the support at 17 and then rebounding. Nice low volume shakeout and looking for volume to accelerate as MDRX breaks back to the upside.
Volume: 395.98K Avg Volume: 570.87K
BUY POINT: $18.22 Volume=725K Target=$21.88 Stop=$16.94
POSITION: MXQ LW - Dec. $17.50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/mdrx.html
Downside:
Play Date: 07/22/2006
AW (Allied Waste--$9.97; -0.09; optionable): Waste management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aw.html
Earnings: 8-1-06
STATUS: Put. Tremendous surge January through April, and then rolled over and is now in a continuing downtrend below the 10 and 18 day EMA (10.18 and 10.42, respectively). It fell through the 200 day SMA (10.35) two weeks back on very strong volume, and then recovered last week but on extremely low volume. It only made it up to the 10 day EMA, unable to even test the 200 day SMA. Started heading lower Friday on rising volume. Money flow is diving lower ahead of AW, and looking for it to follow that money lower. A move to the target lands us a 49%ish gain.
Volume: 1.874M Avg Volume: 2.71M
BUY POINT: $9.88 Volume=2.5M Target=$9.03 Stop=$10.04
POSITION: AW UB - Sept. $10p (-38 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/aw.html
Play Date: 07/22/2006
FARO (Faro Technologies--$14.76; -0.68; optionable): Portable 3-D measurement systems for manufacturing, construction, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/faro.html
Earnings: Released 6-20-06
STATUS: Put. FARO has been in an downtrend since mid-2005, spending most of its time riding below the 50 day EMA (15.10). After four moves down the 50 day it rebounded to end June, making it to the 200 day SMA (16.78) on the run. After 4 or 5 moves down a resistance level a stock will rebound sharper and come up for air at the next resistance; with the 50 day EMA acting as near resistance, the 200 day SMA was the next logical resistance point. It hit that level two weeks back and started back down. It slowed when it hit the 50 day EMA last week, moving laterally. Then Friday it broke sharply lower on rising volume, moving back through the 50 day EMA (15.10). After this reach higher, the break back through the 50 day says it is going to continue the trend. A move to the target lands a 48% gain.
Volume: 187.888K Avg Volume: 202.303K
BUY POINT: $14.64 Volume=210K Target=$13.05 Stop=$15.11
POSITION: QEJ UC - Sept. $15p (-48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/faro.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, AKAM, CCJ, CELG, FLR, GME, MGPI, MRVL, NVDA, SGMS, WM
AAPL: Held the Thursday gap higher on the earnings, but could not go anywhere as volume faded to average. The gap took it out of the 2.5 month downtrend but it is still below the January/May down trendline. Thus far hanging on to this reversal gap.
AKAM: Getting ugly again with the break lower from the 50 day EMA, unable to hold near support at 30. Double topped and looks like 27.50 is the next support and a done deal.
CELG: Pretty good recovery last week after thumping to the 50 day EMA.
FLR: Dove lower to the 200 day SMA on volume. What can you say?
GME: Still struggling, fading further Friday but on very low trade. We will see what happens.
MRVL: Bad to worse, gapping lower on volume. Cut in half since it made us a huge gain through January when it gapped its last gap upside on the BRCM earnings. It has yet to even try to find a bottom to form the base.
NVDA: Giving back last week's rally on the upgrade, gapping lower on average trade. Trying to show some life and put in a base, but it is not there yet.
SGMS: Still working laterally below the 50 day EMA, trying to establish a new base.
WM: Volume is strong as WM is trying to set up a breakout of its reverse head and shoulders base.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
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