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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: CEO; DITC; SCSS; XPRSA
Strong plays:
1) GES: Nice test
2) LUFK: Set up well
3) DELL: Heading lower once more
4) GENZ: Nice test
5) PETD: Excellent handle
6) PMTI: Ready to roll over after this test.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 08/09/2006
GES (Guess? Inc.--$46.61; -1.18; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/ges.html
STATUS: Test breakout. GES surged higher to start the month on strong earnings results. That move broke GES out of a 12 week cup base that formed along the 50 day EMA (42.81). Strong 5 to 2 accumulation in the base (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows a lot of buying as the stock consolidated. Nice breakout, nice low volume test coming back to the 10 day EMA (45.74). Looking for a full test of the 10 day and then a rebound on a return of volume.
Volume: 457.7K Avg Volume: 600.014K
BUY POINT: $46.05 Volume=900K Target=$55.00 Stop=$45.55
POSITION: GES LI - Dec. $45c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ges.html
Play Date: 08/09/2006
LUFK (Lufkin Industries--$62.95; +2.41; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lufk.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Reported strong earnings and raised its guidance on 7-19-06, and Wednesday it raised its dividend. Volume jumped above average as it moved off of near support at the 18 day EMA. Looks close to making the breakout from its 13 week base that formed using the 200 day SMA (56.09) as support. That shows the big buyers were in accumulating the stock at that point. Looking for it to clear the recent closing high (63.55) on solid trade to move into the play.
Volume: 312.946K Avg Volume: 202.529K
BUY POINT: $63.72 Volume=225K Target=$76.00 Stop=$60.45
POSITION: UFR LM - Dec. $65c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lufk.html
Play Date: 08/09/2006
QSII (Quality Systems--$37.43; -0.37; optionable): Healthcare information services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qsii.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Big break higher last week on a strong earnings report. The move took it over the June closing highs (37.49), breaking it out of its 6 month base. Now it has faded back on low volume to test those levels. Looking for this level to hold and for QSII to come back in as it does. That is our entry point.
Volume: 264.951K Avg Volume: 464.868K
BUY POINT: $38.05 Volume=500K Target=$45.65 Stop=$36.45
POSITION: QCR LH - Dec. $40c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/qsii.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/09/2006
AMMD (American Medical Systems--$16.97; -0.43; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ammd.html
STATUS: Put. Major collapse in June, then AMMD clawed back in July, making it to the 50 day EMA (17.68). It has moved laterally at that level for three weeks, tried to make a break through, but that failed. It then sold Wednesday on stronger volume, moving up toward average. Looks ready to continue the selling. A move to the target lands us a 46%ish gain.
Volume: 1.601M Avg Volume: 1.88M
BUY POINT: $16.85 Volume=1.8M Target=$15.65 Stop=$17.08
POSITION: FGU UW - Sept. $17.50p (-52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ammd.html
Play Date: 08/09/2006
DELL (Dell Computer Corp--$21.14; -0.45; optionable): PC's
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dell.html
After Hours: $21.16
Earnings: 8-17-06
STATUS: Put. DELL is in a continuing downtrend below the 50 day EMA (23.12). In mid-July it gapped sharply lower when it lowered its outlook. It fought back through this week, but could only make it to the 18 day EMA (21.92) before rolling over Wednesday even as CSCO announced strong earnings. Looking to step in as it continues lower. A move to the target lands a 50%ish gain.
Volume: 22.041M Avg Volume: 26.265M
BUY POINT: $21.00 Volume=25M Target=$19.50 Stop=$21.48
POSITION: DLQ UX - Sept. $22.50p (-65 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dell.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 08/05/2006
DRIV (Digital River--$43.19; -0.89; optionable): e-commerce outsourcing solutions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/driv.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still testing, coming back to the 18 day EMA (42.78) Wednesday on lower, below average volume. Nice test of a good late July move higher that formed the right side of the base. Very nice. To recap: DRIV reported strong earnings Thursday and rallied on rising though just average volume. The move started the breakout from its nicely formed 14 week base that used the 200 day SMA on the lows as support, an indication of plenty of institutional interest. Looking for a 7 year high on the move. Friday DRIV surged with the market but gave it back and more on lower, below average volume. Very nice base and fundamentals put it near the top of the market. May test back to the 10 day EMA this week before it rebounds once more. Solid and ready to flow higher.
Volume: 813.219K Avg Volume: 958.149K
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $44.25 (Breakout: $46.11) Volume=1.2M Target=$54.95 Stop=$43.22
POSITION: DQI LI - Dec. $45c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/driv.html
Play Date: 08/07/2006
GENZ (Genzyme--$66.87; -0.46; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/genz.html
After Hours: $66.87
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. Slipped through the 200 day SMA (67.22) but managed to hold the 18 day EMA (66.58) on the Tuesday close on lower volume. Nice test, ready to resume the run. To recap: Strong run off of the July low for us and after breaking through the 200 day SMA over a week back, GENZ is testing the move, tapping the 200 day on the Monday low and rebounding modestly. Nice test of a strong move and on the bounce back up off this support on some rising trade it is another buy.
Volume: 1.55M Avg Volume: 2.952M
BUY POINT: $68.25 Volume=3.3M Target=$75.00 Stop=$66.95
POSITION: GZQ AU - Jan. $67.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/genz.html
Play Date: 08/07/2006
PETD (Petroleum Development Corp.--$43.66; +0.69; optionable): Oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/petd.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still in the nice handle, moving higher Wednesday but on lower, below average volume. Just taking its time and completing its base to set up the breakout. To recap: Spending the past two weeks forming the handle to its 17 week base, setting PETD up for the breakout to a new all-time high. Strong money flow is surging higher even as PETD tests, a nice bullish touch. Volume trading at average the past week as it tests; want to see it bounce higher as it moves off the test of near support at the 10 day EMA (42.54).
Volume: 108.138K Avg Volume: 121.815K
BUY POINT: $44.82 Volume=182K Target=$53.78 Stop=$42.32
POSITION: PHQ AI - Jan. $45c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/petd.html
Play Date: 08/05/2006
WOOF (VCA Antech--$33.28; -0.10; optionable): Vet centers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/woof.html
STATUS: Test breakout. WOOF has landed on the 18 day EMA (33.23) this week, holding that level Tuesday and Wednesday on lower, below average volume. It continues testing the strong break higher from late July, sitting right on top of the mid-July peak. Want to see it surge off of this level on a return of strong volume.
Volume: 347.267K Avg Volume: 434.678K
BUY POINT: $34.05 Volume=450K Target=$40.00 Stop=$33.12
POSITION: QWF LG - Dec. $35c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/woof.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/08/2006
PMTI (Palomar Medical Tech--$35.19; +0.03; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pmti.html
STATUS: Put. Tried to rally Wednesday but could not hold the move, fading to flat. Tilting at the 200 day SMA (37.37), we are looking for it to continue the move lower after this test. To recap: Set up a head and shoulders in June and July, then gapped lower to end that month as earnings were not up to the market's snuff. It tried to make a stand at the 200 day SMA but that failed Tuesday as PMTI slumped lower through support at 36. Following money flow lower. A move to the target lands us a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 360.896K Avg Volume: 475.465K
BUY POINT: $34.95 Volume=475K Target=$32.72 Stop=$35.55
POSITION: HKQ UG - Sept. $35p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pmti.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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