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Begin part 2 of 2
Full report issues Tuesday.
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: AGN; CTSH; QSII; RAI
New Plays:
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 08/14/2006
IMO (Imperial Oil Ltd.--$38.41; -0.75; optionable): Oil and gas refining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/imo.html
STATUS: Test breakout. IMO sold with the energy sector Monday with volume rising toward average. It bounced off the 18 day EMA (37.85) on the low and recouped a good chunk of its losses. This works as a good test of the breakout from a 14 week base that is part of a 10 month ascending triangle formed making higher and higher lows off of the 200 day SMA. Nice breakout over resistance at 38, a good test, using the market selling in energy to its advantage. Now it looks ready to continue higher.
Volume: 202.4K Avg Volume: 249.766K
BUY POINT: $38.85 Volume=375K Target=$44.75 Stop=$37.68
POSITION: IMO KD - Nov. 38.375c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/imo.html
New Pre-Announcement:
Play Date: 08/14/2006
APH (Amphenol Corp.--$57.16; +0.76; optionable): Electrical, electronic and fiber optic connectors
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 1-21-04 at $65.90
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aph.html
Earnings: 7-19-06
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. APH was a bit light on price at the July earnings, but no problem with its pattern, a nicely formed 14 week base as APH sets up for a new all-time high with a breakout. Good volume Monday as APH gapped higher, putting a solid but modest gain. Solid money flow. Looking for some continued solid trade to enter a position.
Volume: 466.2K Avg Volume: 589.212K
BUY POINT: $57.55 Volume=800K Target=$66.00 Stop=$56.11
POSITION: APH JK - Oct. $55c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/aph.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/14/2006
NTGR (Netgear--$18.71; -0.26; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntgr.html
STATUS: Put. Triple topped in June and then fell through the 200 day SMA (19.85) in July. It bottomed to end July and then rebounded to test the 200 day last week, gapping above that level but then reversing to close down on stronger volume. Slipping and sliding lower, with volume rising Monday. Weak, and looking to move in as it continues lower. A move to the target lands us a 43%ish gain.
Volume: 469.324K Avg Volume: 769.658K
BUY POINT: $18.62 Volume=770K Target=$17.10 Stop=$19.04
POSITION: TUD UD - Sept. $17.50p (-51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ntgr.html
Continuing ready to move:
ANST
CXW
EME
PPDI
DELL
CONTINUING PLAYS
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
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http://stocksplits.net/ssr/table.php
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri =Ascending triangle; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AEOS 08/10 Cup hdl 34.51 -0.30 35.11 41.95 3M 2.5M 33.00
Buy Not Issued. Started strong but faded back ahead of earnings. Some cold feet.
AGN 07/25 PreAnn 110.89 +1.46 109.32 117.50 1.1M 1.5M 107.95
Current. Nice break higher on rising, average volume.
AMX 08/03 Cup hdl 36.71 +0.24 36.58 43.00 2.7M 6.5M 35.38
Current. Gapped higher on a bit better trade, but no surge higher.
ANST 08/05 Cup hdl 21.92 +0.81 22.29 26.75 108K 264K 20.88
Buy Not Hit.
ATLS 08/08 DB hdl 45.51 -0.24 48.08 54.95 103K 250K 45.95
Buy Not Hit. Tested the 50 day MVA intraday and rallied back to show a tight doji on the 18 day MVA on rising volume. Still forming the handle.
BOT 08/12 Test BO 125.20 -0.31 126.05 135.90 162K 561K 123.00
Buy Not Issued. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back holding the 10 day MVA on below average volume. Still in the pattern.
CAT 08/03 Asc Bse 65.96 -1.07 73.05 82.00 8.3M 7.7M 71.24
Current. Disappointing session after alying back thru the 200
day MA in the morning session. It is still holding
the June lows, but it has to makes its turn now.
COG 08/12 PreAnn 53.03 -1.24 55.25 65.00 414K 900K 53.45
Buy Not Hit. Faded back toward the 18 day EMA in a decent test, setting up all the better for the next move.
CPRT 08/05 PreAnn 27.07 +0.16 27.52 32.95 163K 585K 26.38
Buy Not Hit. Volatile session tapping 27.50 at the intraday high, but gave much of it back on low volume. Moving up after testing the 18 day MVA.
CTSH 07/28 PreAnn 66.69 +0.99 66.12 77.95 919K 2.4M 68.00
Current. Jumped higher on some rising volume. Ready to move back up, just needs a tougher market.
CVS 07/15 Test BO 34.27 +0.30 31.38 37.88 3.9M 4.5M 33.11
Current. Continuing its run higher but closed well off the high. As it just broke from the lateral range no real issues with this.
CXW 08/12 PreSplt 60.90 +0.21 61.48 67.50 166K 410K 59.31
Buy Not Hit. Beginning to make a lateral move on low volume. Moving parallel with the 10 day MVA.
DAKT 08/05 Asc Bse 29.36 +0.98 29.11 34.95 862K 750K 28.08
Current.
DNR 07/29 Rv H&S 32.15 -1.68 34.65 50.50 854K 1.6M 32.32
Current. Peeled back hard from a noce consolidatoin at the 10
day EMA, but held the 50 day EMA (31.98) on the close.
Will let it bounce if it will & pick up some more as
it does.
DRQ 08/07 Asc Bse 75.63 -4.60 87.12 99.85 905K 675K 82.04
Current. Sold on sharp volume but managed to hold its trendline from March where it has rallied back in June and July. Given that we let it ride to see if it will do the same from here. If it does we will also be ready to pick up more positions.
DRQ 07/28 PreAnn 75.63 -4.60 81.88 94.00 905K 636K 81.95
ECL 07/18 PreAnn 43.00 +0.11 41.39 47.65 417K 1.2M 42.55
Current. Moving up on low volume after testing the 18 day MVA. Beginning to consolidate along the 10 day MVA.
EME 08/12 Test BO 52.25 +0.76 51.85 61.95 250K 325K 50.32
Buy Not Issued. Looking good.
ESRX 08/10 PreAnn 81.11 -2.27 81.55 93.00 2M 2M 79.88
Buy Not Hit. Pullback on average volume to hold the 200 day MVA Still in the pattern.
FMX 07/29 Rv H&S 89.90 +1.36 89.05 99.00 214K 750K 85.88
Buy Not Issued.
FSH 08/10 PreAnn 77.18 +1.02 76.82 88.00 562K 1.9M 74.75
Buy Not Issued.
FTO 07/13 Test BO 35.68 -0.98 33.25 39.95 2.6M 3.5M 34.82
Current. Pullback holding the 10 day MVA on rising, but below average volume. Testing the breakout. May test back to 35.
FTO 06/29 Dbl btm 35.68 -0.98 30.84 37.00 2.6M 3.5M 34.82
Current.
GG 08/07 DB hdl 28.85 -0.73 31.22 37.00 4.7M 12M 30.05
Exited. Continue to move down below the 50 day MVA
GI 08/05 PreAnn 69.63 -1.18 72.65 86.95 443K 484K 68.77
Buy Not Hit.
GILD 06/01 PreAnn 61.53 -0.52 60.97 70.95 4.5M 7M 60.40
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back holding the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Meeting some resistance at 62. Should hold here and rebound.
GISX 08/03 PreSplt 42.39 +0.06 43.15 48.50 114K 175K 41.25
Buy Not Hit. Tapped 43 at the intraday high, but gave much of it back on low volume. Still in the pattern.
GME 08/02 Cup 46.11 -0.34 43.68 51.95 632K 1.6M 44.32
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back on low volume. Still in uptrend.
GS 08/02 Cup 150.37 -0.74 152.00 165.00 3M 6.5M 149.97
Current. Pullback testing the 50 day MVA intraday and rallied back to hold the 18 day MVA on rising volume. Should rebound from here.
HC 08/10 DB hdl 18.44 -0.59 19.87 23.85 1M 1.7M 18.48
Buy Not Hit. Pullback on rising but below average volume. May continue to test back to 50 day MVA (18.30). Will need to hold here.
HES 08/09 Test BO 50.55 -1.39 54.05 62.00 2.7M 3.2M 52.48
Buy Not Hit. Stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop.
HWAY 07/27 PreAnn 51.56 +0.36 54.53 62.50 161K 504K 52.00
Current. Volatile session tapping 53.27 at the intraday high, but gave much of it back showing a doji on the 50 day MVA on low volume. Looking for stock to hold here and rebound.
IGT 07/22 Cup 36.51 -0.40 38.90 44.50 2.4M 3.2M 37.61
Exited.
LH 05/30 PreAnn 66.85 +0.48 61.31 71.00 816K 1M 65.25
Current. Continue the uptrend on rising volume.
LUFK 08/09 PreAnn 60.31 -1.45 63.72 76.00 100K 225K 60.45
Buy Not Hit. Pullback holding just below the 18 day MVA on rising volume. Still in the pattern. Should hold at support at 60.
MOLX 08/10 Test 50 33.97 +0.26 34.68 40.95 523K 625K 33.14
Buy Not Hit. Bounced off the 10 day MVA on rising volume. Came off the day's high of 34.64. Still in the pattern.
MON 08/12 Test BO 45.17 +0.16 45.55 52.00 1.5M 3M 44.48
Buy Not Issued. Need to see a clear and decisive move on strong volume.
MON 07/11 PreSplt 45.17 +0.16 42.65 46.43 1.5M 3.1M 44.21
Current.
MRO 07/18 PreAnn 86.33 -2.62 86.65 99.50 3.3M 4M 89.15
Trailing Stop.
NBL 07/13 DB hdl 48.61 -1.33 49.30 59.45 1.2M 2.5M 48.89
Current. Traded lower with a gap down but volume remained low
and it held past suport levels. It was a down day,
but it has shown the ability to shake these off. We
are giving it a day to see if it can do that.
NVDA 08/08 Test 20 23.28 -0.12 25.11 30.00 13M 12M 23.35
Buy Not Issued. Pullback holding the 10 day MVA on much lower, but strong volume. Still in the pattern.
OII 07/10 Test 18 38.08 -1.33 43.60 52.50 1.4M 1.7M 42.95
Current. Gapped lower, giving us little to work with. Managed
to hold support form May peaks,, July low. This is
where it needs to find its footing.
OXY 08/10 PreSplt 102.39 -2.79 106.48 117.00 2.8M 3.8M 104.77
Buy Not Hit.
OXY 07/28 PreSplt 102.39 -2.79 107.58 117.00 2.8M 4M 104.77
Current. Tanked to the 50 day EMA on the close, holding near
the early June peak in a range of support. Got hit
on the general 'peace dividend' drop in oil, but it
is demand that is going to drive prices.
PCAR 07/28 PreSplt 54.47 -0.14 53.65 58.35 1.1M 1M 54.23
Current. Tapped 56.29 at the intraday high, but gave it back holding the 10 day MVA on rising, but below average volume. Still in good shape.
PPDI 08/01 Test BO 37.86 +0.52 38.05 45.00 392K 680K 36.45
Buy Not Issued. Moving up on rising volume after testing the simple 50 day MVA. Came off the day' high of 38.37. Need to see the breakaway move on strong volume.
QSII 08/09 Test BO 38.33 +1.24 37.45 45.00 275K 500K 36.65
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA for a nice gain on rising volume. Moving up after testing the breakout
RAI 08/03 PreSplt 128.24 +1.44 125.85 134.85 820K 675K 126.00
Current. Continue to trend higher on stronger above average volume.
SHOO 08/03 Cup hdl 32.93 -0.08 34.35 41.00 242K 584K 32.05
Buy Not Issued. Pullback holding the 10 day MVA on rising, but below average volume. Still forming the handle.
SLB 08/01 Rv H&S 62.68 -1.28 68.22 78.50 5.7M 12M 65.45
Buy Not Issued.
SLB 07/10 DB hdl 62.68 -1.28 65.21 74.50 5.7M 12M 64.60
Current. Pullback holding the simple 50 day MVA on below average volume. Should rebound from here.
SPY 08/07 DB hdl 127.11 +0.10 128.35 131.00 58M 90M 126.65
Current.
STT 08/12 DB hdl 61.18 +0.28 61.22 68.88 1M 2.6M 59.91
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 62.17 at the intraday high, but gave much of it back showing a doji just above the 10 day MVA on rising, but below average volume. Still in the pattern.
SU 07/13 PreAnn 81.86 -2.23 84.35 96.95 2.3M 4.5M 83.00
Current. Gapped lower but managed to rebound off session lows
as volume moved higher but remained well below average.
Will let it make a modest test here above the 50 day
EMA (80.42) & look @ new positions when it rebounds.
TRMB 07/31 Test BO 47.10 -0.96 46.31 53.95 289K 476K 46.64
Current. Pullback on rising, but below average volume. Looking for a rebound from the 18 day MVA (46.73).
TSO 07/06 PreAnn 68.80 -1.88 75.07 86.00 2.1M 2M 73.00
Current. Sold again but managed to hold support at 68 from
many prior peaks and valleys. This is where it needs
to put in the floor and rebound.
TTI 08/12 Asc Bse 27.43 -1.16 29.78 35.75 813K 2M 27.75
Buy Not Hit.
VLO 08/12 Test 50 63.24 -1.52 66.05 78.50 9.7M 10M 64.05
Buy Not Hit.
VLO 07/05 DB hdl 63.24 -1.52 64.75 78.50 9.7M 15M 65.98
Current. Gapped lower on the peace news then tapped support
at 62 and started to rebound. Finished well off the
lows and looking for it to recover the 50 day EMA (64.20)
rapidly.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
CE 08/12 Put 17.99 -0.01 17.89 16.85 531K 1M 18.12
Buy Not Hit. Tested the 18 day MVA intraday, but faded back below the 10 day MVA on low volume.
DELL 08/09 Put 21.24 +0.17 21.00 19.50 24M 25M 21.48
Buy Not Issued. Broke through the 18 day MVA intraday, but faded back to hold below the 10 day MVA on rising, but average volume. Still in downtrend.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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